Global Rice Trade May Decline 6% in 2013, China Rice Imports Down 40%, Says IGCoryza

Global rice trade could decline by about 6% from an estimated 38.3 million tons in 2011-12 to about 36 million tons in 2012-13, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

In its February 2013 forecast, the IGC maintains the previous forecast for 2012-13 global rice production at 466 million tons, and says that global rice use is expected to increase 2% year-on-year. However, global trade is expected to decline this year as “key importers in Asia and Africa reduce purchases from last year’s highs,” says the IGC.

China’s rice import forecast for 2012-13 is revised to around 1.5 million tons, down about 6% from the previous forecast of 1.6 million tons and down about 40% from last year, according to the IGC. The IGC says that rice consumption in China is expected to increase to around 142.9 million tons this year, slightly lower than the expected production of around 142.5 million tons. However, China’s closing stocks this year is forecast to increase to a record 46 million tons, helped by high imports of around 2.5 million tons in 2011-12.

The IGC also forecasts Indonesia’s rice imports to decline to 1.1 million tons in 2012-13, down about 27% from around 1.5 million tons imported in 2011-12. Both Bangladesh and the Philippines are expected to increase rice imports slightly this year, to about 400,000 tons and 1.3 million tons respectively.