Ukraine is losing grain and rapeseed harvest
May was very dry and hot this year. It hasn’t rained for more than one month and a half in some regions of southern Ukraine. Taking into account a 30 degrees heat the conditions for development of crops can be called extreme there.
The level of moisture in soil declined significantly in May, but in western and northern Ukraine there was enough moisture owing to rains. And in the East and the South absence of rains provoked hot winds, overdrying and crusting of soil.
Such weather was observed in many fields in the Crimea, Kherson, Zaporozhe, Nikolayev and Odessa regions and winter crops conditions worsened.
Farmers note that crop losses can be significant, for instance in the Kherson region, if it doesn’t rain during the next five days.
Southern Ukraine. Soil moisture, 0-20 cm
The level of soil moisture in the South corresponds to that in 2007 when Ukraine lost a considerable part of the harvest. Barley suffered from drought most of all and Ukraine gathered only 6.2 MMT of barley in 2007 against 11.3 MMT in 2006. Total grain crop declined by 18% to 28.3 MMT in comparison with 2006.
And rapeseed yield decreased by 28% to 1.16 MT/ha in 2007, and crop was only 1.1 MMT.
But UkrAgroConsult estimates that average yield of rapeseed will decline by only 2.5% to 1.66 MT/ha due to drought in 2012 in comparison with 1.7 MT/ha last year.
Ukraine. Rapeseed yield, MT/ha (UkrAgroConsult)
Nevertheless rapeseed crop will be lower than in 2007. UkrAgroConsult forecasts that Ukraine will gather only 960 KMT of rapeseed this year owing to smaller acreage and significant winter losses (rapeseed crop was 1100 KMT in 2007 and 1420 KMT in 2011).
Ukraine. Rapeseed crop, KMT (UkrAgroConsult)
Meteorologists forecast rains beginning from May, 16 which can last for 10 days. The rains can improve crop conditions, consequently grans and rapeseed losses can be much lower than in 2007.
As May is the key month for forecasting of future crop the final estimate of grains and rapeseed losses can be made only in early June. But currently we can say that southern and eastern Ukraine have already lost some part of grain yield potential.
Forecast of precipitation
May 17 May 19
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