USDA Boosts 2011 Ag Export Forecast On Pork Demand, Russia Drought
U.S. agricultural exports are expected to rise 5.1 percent next year to $113 billion, the second-highest total on record, as global pork and poultry demand grows and Russia’s drought leads to stepped-up purchases of American grain, according to a government report today.
The nation’s farmers are poised to export $8.1 billion worth of wheat in fiscal 2011, up 33 percent from the current fiscal year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in an agriculture trade update today. Corn exports in fiscal 2011, which begins Oct. 1, are projected at $10.6 billion, up 16 percent from 2010.
Among top world grain producers, there will be “sharply reduced competition” from Russia, as well as Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, the USDA said in today’s report. “Shrinking exportable supplies in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Canada provide opportunities for U.S. expansion in the Middle East and North Africa.”
Foreign markets for U.S. grain, meat, fruit and vegetable growers will continue to expand next year as the global economy recovers from recession, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said today during a conference call following the release of the report.
“You’re seeing greater acceptance of the American brand in agriculture in 2010, and you’ll continue to see that in 2011,” Vilsack said. “We’re going to see more and more opportunities.”
Estimated U.S. agricultural exports of $113 billion for 2011 would be second only to the $115 billion shipped in 2008, the USDA said today. The USDA also hiked its 2010 export projection to $107.5 billion, up 2.9 percent from a May forecast.
As increasing demand boosts prices for cattle, corn and other farm products, net farm income in 2010 is expected to surge 24 percent, to $77.1 billion, from recession-weakened levels in 2009, the USDA said.
U.S. pork exports in 2011 are expected to reach $4.5 billion, up 7.1 percent from $4.2 billion in 2010, the USDA said. The increase reflects expected growth in major markets of Japan and Mexico, the USDA said.
The USDA’s export forecast follows Mexico’s decision earlier this month to add pork to a list of about 100 U.S. products subject to tariffs amid an escalating trade dispute. Starting Aug. 18, Mexico assessed U.S. hams and other pork products a 5 percent tariff.
The tariffs, stemming from the cancellation of a program that allowed Mexican truck drivers to operate in the U.S., could hurt demand in the second-largest foreign market for U.S. pork producers, industry observers have said.
Vilsack, during today’s conference call, said there is an “ongoing effort” with Mexico’s government to resolve the dispute “as soon as possible,” citing recent discussions with U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.
“I can’t give you a specific time frame, but we’re working on this every day,” Vilsack said.
Beef exports in 2011 are projected at $3.2 billion, unchanged from 2010, though demand is expected to “remain strong” in Asia, the USDA said.
In dairy products, 2011 exports will fall to $2.9 billion, down 6.5 percent from $3.1 billion in 2010, “due to increased competition from Oceania and an expected decline in global prices,” the USDA said.
Risks to growth in U.S. agricultural exports include the European Union economy “tanking” due to region’s high debt levels, the USDA said in today’s report. Additionally, the U.S. economy could fall back into recession, or China’s trade surplus with the U.S. could continue to widen.
In general, “the consensus forecast for 2010 and 2011 is of continuing recovery in both the developed and developing economies, with a few regional rough patches,” the USDA said.
Cattlenetwork
