Elena Loshkareva

Elena  Loshkaryeva for site LightElena Loshkarevagrain market expert at "UkrAgroConsult" (2006), specializing in the study of the major trends in the grain market of the Black Sea region. Elena is responsible for forecasting crops and trade, S&D balances, preparation of relevant researches on the Black Sea region countries.

 

 

 

Biography:


Education - Higher, the National Aviation University (2000).

 

Analyst's publications:


 

Russia. 2015/16 export prospects

03.08.2015

North Africa and the Near East remain as key destinations for Russian wheat exports in the recent years. The reasons include strong demand from these regions, proximity and consequently low delivery costs. Egypt has been the largest importer for many years.

Full article

Exports from the Black Sea countries keeps high

11.12.2014

Exports in the first five months of the season are preliminarily estimated at almost 34.4 MMT, including 15 MMT from Ukraine, 18 MMT from Russia, and some 1.2 MMT from Kazakhstan.

Grain export from Black Sea Region, kmt

Grain

July

August

September

October

November*

July-Nov.

Ukraine

2136

2736

3574.06

3250

3344*

15040.06

Russia

3120

4641

3755

3480

3150*

18146.0

Kazakhstan

164.2

155.9

380.4

503.7

n/a

1204.20

TOTAL

5420.2

7532.9

7709.46

7233.70

6494*

34390.26

* preliminary

1011220140

 

Black Sea region to harvest 168.5 MMT of grain

13.06.2014

Weather conditions are the key risk factor for yield formation. Crop variation from year to year, significant grain production decreases and increases in different regions of Ukraine and Russia change the market picture substantially.

UkrAgroConsult forecasts the 2014/15 grain crop in the three Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan) at 168.5 MMT. The third largest crop after the 2008/09 and 2011/12 highs may be harvested in 2014.

In Ukraine, the crop is expected to lower slightly to 54 MMT due to reduced plantings of winter wheat and spring barley. Winter crops survived the winter well in Ukraine. If the weather continues favoring crops, 2014 may appear a second consecutive year with an abundant total grain crop in Ukraine.

Although Russia’s farmers planted less winter crops than projected, the crop forecast remains high. Our forecast equals 97 MMT. The most optimistic crop estimate – 100 MMT – was announced by the agriculture minister. Market estimates are within a range of 90 to 97 MMT.

At the moment, planting of spring crops in Russia is 1.5 Ml ha ahead of last year. Long-awaited rains recently came to some central Russian regions and partially allayed crop loss fears inspired by previous heat. However, much of the eastern part of the European Russia is exposed to drought.

 

Interview of the grain market analyst of the Black Sea region, Elena Loshkareva (Ukragroconsult), to the French newspaper L'USINE NOUVELLE

29.10.2013

(below is the translation of the interview in English)
 
"La production céréalière des pays de la région de la mer Noire devrait s'apprécier de 27% en 2013-2014"
 

Entretien avec Elena Loshkareva, analyste senior sur le marché céréalier de la mer Noire pour le consultant ukrainien UkrAgroConsult.

Quel bilan tirez-vous de la campagne 2012-2013 sur le marché des céréales dans la région de la Mer Noire (Ukraine, Russie et Kazakhstan) ?
 
La sécheresse a réduit la production de céréales en Ukraine, en Russie et au Kazakhstan d’environ 44 millions de tonnes (Mt), soit 26 %, entre les campagnes 2011-2012 et 2012-2013. Le Kazakhstan et la Russie ont été les plus durement touchés : leurs récoltes ont respectivement reculé de 53 % et de 25 %. La récolte de l’Ukraine a pour sa part diminué dans une moindre mesure, avec une perte de 16 %.
 
La baisse de la production céréalière a réduit en conséquence les disponibilités exportables de céréales. Cependant, il est à noter que la baisse des exportations en 2012-2013 n’a pas été aussi importante que lors des campagnes précédentes. Les exportations ont chuté de 11 Mt lors de la campagne écoulée, alors que ce recul s’est élevé à plus de 50 % en 2010-2011.
 
Les exportations combinées de l’Ukraine, de la Russie et du Kazakhstan sont restées à un niveau record pendant la première moitié de la campagne, et ont même dépassé le niveau record atteint en 2011-2012. Toutefois, ces trois pays ont fortement réduit leurs livraisons de blé à partir de janvier 2013. L’augmentation des prix des céréales russes a provoqué une perte de compétitivité de celles-ci sur le marché mondial et a contribué à en réduire les exportations.
 
En raison de la baisse de la production et du niveau relativement élevé des exportations au début de la campagne, les stocks de céréales ont considérablement chuté à la fin de la campagne.
 
Quel est l’impact final de la sécheresse sur l’année 2012-2013 ?
Prévoyez-vous un rebond de la production de céréales en 2013-2014 ?

 
La sécheresse ayant marqué la campagne 2012-2013 a contribué à réduire fortement la production dans les trois pays. Elle a également poussé à la hausse les prix intérieurs des céréales. Le fort enneigement qui l’a suivi a permis de partiellement compenser cette perte d’humidité, d’où le fait que l’impact de la sécheresse ne devrait pas avoir de conséquences sur la campagne 2013-2014. Nous prévoyons que la production de céréales combinée des trois pays de la région s’apprécierait de 27 % entre les campagnes 2012-2013 et 2013-2014, à 160,5 Mt (88 Mt en Russie, 56 Mt en Ukraine et au Kazakhstan 16,5 Mt).
 
 
 
Les quantités moindres de céréales affecteront-elles les exportations en 2013-2014 ?
 
Malgré la révision à la baisse des prévisions de récoltes dues à de mauvaises conditions climatiques, les exportations des trois pays de la mer Noire sont attendues à un niveau élevé. Nous estimons que les trois pays peuvent exporter environ 58 Mt de céréales (21 Mt pour la Russie, 29,8 Mt pour l’Ukraine et 7,3 Mt pour le Kazakhstan). Ce chiffre se situe 14 % au-dessus des exportations de la campagne 2012-2013.
 

L'USINE NOUVELLE

 

Ukragroconsult presents a translation of the interview in English.

 

What is your assessment of the 2012-2013 campaign on the grain market in the Black Sea region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan) ?

A drought slashed combined grain production in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan by roughly 44 MMT (or 26%) in 2012/13 season against the previous bumper crop of 2011/12.

Kazakhstan and Russia were hit the hardest: their harvests fell by 53% and 25%, respectively. Ukraine’s crop decreased to a lesser degree (down 16%).

The grain production decline correspondingly reduced grain export availabilities. However, noteworthy is that the 2012/13 drop in exports was not as significant as in the previous scarce seasons. Exports fell by 11 MMT from the previous season, whereas they were more than halved in 2010/11 (down almost 30 MMT).

Combined exports from the three countries remained at a record level in the first half of the season; in the first four months they even exceeded record shipments of the last 2011/12 season. The reason was strong export demand. However, all the three countries cut wheat shipments sharply from January 2013.

The season of 2012/13 featured renunciation of intervention in the trading process by all the three governments, despite substantially decreased grain outputs. So, the state allowed the market to regulate export flows itself, although this resulted in an unprecedented price hike. Increased prices of Russian grain made it non-competitive for the global market and thereby minimized exports as early as January 2013.

As a result of the 2012/13 production decline and quite high exports early in the season, grain stocks shrank considerably by the season’s end.

    The region has been affected by a drought that has contributed to a decline in production. What is the impact of the drought on the 2012-2013 year? Do you anticipate a rebound in grain production in 2013-2014 ?

The 2012/13 drought reduced production in the three countries, pushed up domestic grain prices sharply and decreased grain carryovers.

The drought-caused loss of moisture reserves was offset in the following periods, especially thanks to the snowy winter. Therefore the drought impact had actually no consequences for the crop of the next 2013/14 season. A decisive factor of the 2013/14 crop is this fall’s weather. Long precipitation affects harvest operations that may lead to a grain crop shortfall. UkrAgroConsult expects combined grain production in the region’s three countries to increase by 27% year-on-year to some 160.5 MMT in 2013/14 season (88 MMT in Russia, 56 MMT in Ukraine and 16.5 MMT in Kazakhstan).

However, an impact of 2012/13 season on 2013/14 does exist. Plummeted carryovers due to declined production and quite high early-season exports will lead to lower grain export availabilities in 2013/14 season.

    Due to lesser amounts, grain exports should, in 2013-2014, to be lower than previous years. Do you have any figures on that ?

Despite the downward adjustment of the crop forecast due to weather conditions and harvest difficulties, exports from the three Black Sea countries are expected at a high level.

UkrAgroConsult estimates that the three countries may export a combined some 58 MMT of grains (including 21 MMT from Russia, 29.8 MMT from Ukraine and 7.3 MMT from Kazakhstan). This figure is 14% above 2012/13 exports and above those of the recent years, trailing only after the record-export season of 2011/12.

    Do you forecast production and prices for grains and oilseeds in the region in the coming months ?

Domestic wheat prices in Russia are on the rise now due to shrinking stocks of high-quality wheat in South Russia along with adverse weather conditions for harvest and winter crop planting. Growth of global market prices pushes up domestic prices as well. We expect the price upturn to continue in the coming months. Prices of high-quality wheat are forecast to grow faster than those of forage crops.

A price increase is also reported in Kazakhstan, but its prices are at the formation stage yet. Price growth will likely continue in the near future.