Elizaveta Malyshko

IMG 1476corrElizaveta Malyshkoleading expert of grain market at "UkrAgroConsult" (1998), studying the main trends in the global grain market and specializing in forecasts for crops and trade, S&D balance of Ukrainian grain, preparation of specialized studies.





Education - Higher, Kiev Polytechnic Institute (1996).


Analyst's publications:


Black Sea wheat in Algeria’s market. Chances of success


French wheat producers and exporters are seriously worried about Russia’s possible entry into the market of Algeria. Algeria annually imports 7-8 MMT of wheat, mostly from France. However, in 2018, the country declared the necessity to diversify its imports. French wheat faced competition from Argentina.

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Russia and Ukraine. Transparency of regulation, equal terms and predictability are the conditions of essential importance to all market participants


Will the Black Sea countries restrict wheat exports? Russia and Ukraine may account for a combined some 28% of global wheat exports in the 2018/19 season. This is the main reason why rumors about possible restriction of exports from these countries triggered serious world wheat price surges in August.

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Black Sea Region: 2018/19 Outlook


The Black Sea region turned out to be generally prepared for the new season’s challenges. However, it made its small contribution to price support. It is only Ukraine where farmers sowed more winter crops than last year. At the same time, their plantings in the other Black Sea countries dwindled to different degrees.

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Grain-Ring or Competitive struggle in Ukraine’s market


Despite a growing volume of output, competition among traders is still rather tough. While the list of exporters contained some 350 companies in the 2011/12 season, their number was over 1500 at the end of MY 2016/17. Thus, with a double increase in grain exports at the time, the quantity of interested companies has risen fourfold (!).

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Turkey bringing up a competitor for Ukraine in the flour market


This past week, the market was set in turmoil by a reported new turn in the Russo-Turkish agri-trade relations. According to trade sources, Turkey’s purchases of Russian wheat will not exceed 20-25% of the country’s import needs, while Russian sunoil will fill at most 15-30% of its needs. The decision may impact the market significantly because the wheat share reached 75% in previous seasons.

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Triumph of the Black Sea region: for how long?


The Black Sea region has been enhancing its presence in the world grain market since as early as the late 1990’s. However, the region’s role became particularly noticeable over the last few years. The Black Sea share in global exports holds at over 20% since 2013/14, making it possible to safely call this a triumph of the Black Sea region on the world grain floor. Moreover, the global grain trade upturn is in many respects promoted by the Black Sea region, especially in the past marketing year of 2016/17, UkrAgroConsult’s experts note.

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Ukraine to join the top five flour exporters


The world flour market develops rapidly. The top three producers of wheat flour include China, India and the European Union, which are its largest consumers at the same time.

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Sorghum achievements of Ukraine


Sorghum can by no means be called a staple cereal for Ukraine. This is rather a “second-tier” crop. Over the last five seasons, the sorghum crops have been varying within 188-354 KMT, i.e. less than 1% of Ukraine’s total grain production.

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Ukraine. Grain harvest of 66 MMT: unreal reality


The Agricultural Policy Ministry, with reference to preliminary information of the State Statistics Committee, has published grain production estimates for 2016. The Committee will publish these figures officially in early February.

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Ukraine. Crop-2017: acreage allocation outlook

Rye. Rye acreage expanded for the first time in last five years. Rising domestic rye prices due to short supply as well as arrivals of imported grain and flour stimulated some growth of planted area. This increase is slight but it nevertheless may appear sufficient to ease the rye market tightness in MY 2017/18, UkrAgroConsult notes.

Grain consumption to hit abysmal low in Ukraine


Domestic grain consumption in Ukraine is likely to drop to its thirteen-year low in the 2016/17 season, Elizaveta Malyshko, leading expert of grain market at UkrAgroConsult, estimates. These changes have been driven by population and its purchasing ability decrease, as well as reduction of demand from the livestock farming industry.

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Grain legumes buyers with an eye for Ukraine


According to UkrAgroConsult, in 2016 Ukraine considerably increased grain legumes production.

Although official figures are not available yet, we can assume that legumes crop is 70% higher than last year, mainly owing to significant expansion of peas planted area.

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Ukraine. Winter grains not emerged on 16% of area


Market participants are turning their close eye to winter crop condition is Ukraine, reports UkrAgroConsult. Late planting, a substantial temperature drop in November preceded by drought have added to the risk of crop loss while wintering. The first forecasts have appeared, suggesting that over 15% of winter crops will be reseeded in spring. This is a rather pessimistic scenario, as the winter loss rate for grain crops was 2-7% in the previous years.

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Logistical problems have negative impact on Black Sea grain competitiveness


This season total grain export capacity of RUK countries (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) exceeds 90 MMT, which is 10 MMT more than last year. However, doubts occur whether the countries will be able to sell this grain volume in the world market. Logistics and quality has become the main problem for exporters.

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Ukraine. Impacts of sowing on tight schedule


In Ukraine winter crops sowing campaign for the 2017 crop is accompanied by different cataclysms. Severe drought during optimal seeding terms delayed sowing season in September. In early October machinery could not work in fields in the South because of rains, reports UkrAgroConsult. In late October freezing weather has become another complication.

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Europe increases GMO use. What are benefits for Ukraine?


On September 16 the European Commission approved eleven GM corn varieties created by Syngenta. The permission was granted for corn use as food and fodder for ten years, but does not apply to its cultivation.

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Ukraine. Basic wheat supply and demand balance in season 2017/18


According to the Agriculture Ministry, wheat planted area for the 2017 crop will remain at the previous year's level – 6198 Th ha, reports UkrAgroConsult. As a reminder, last year winter wheat acreage was significantly smaller than many-year average, which is nearly 6700 Th ha.

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Ukraine increases rye and rye flour imports. What is the reason?


Rye production is steadily declining in Ukraine, reports UkrAgroConsult. When earlier Ukraine was an exporter of rye, then before 2014 Ukrainian rye harvest was just enough for domestic consumption only. Over the last two seasons a new trend has emerged – both rye and rye flour imports are growing.

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Ukraine will not be able to sow winter grains in the optimal terms


Precipitations have been observed in the Southern and Eastern parts of Ukraine since September, 20. Abundant rains were seen in Odessa region and in the western regions. According to meteorologists it will be raining this week as well and precipitations will replenish soil moisture stocks in the key winter wheat producing regions.

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Ukraine. Farmers have no money for sowing?


Winter crops sowing has begun in Ukraine. Agricultural enterprises plan to seed winter crops on 8098 Th ha, including 7374 Th ha with grain crops.

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Ukraine is to export unparalleled grain volume in 2016/17


In 2016 Ukraine will obtain record high grain crop. Basic crops will be wheat and corn. Along with this, we should mention growth in peas crop and record low crop of rye.

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Ukrainian traders export grain at loss?


Prices do not gladden traders in the new season. World grain production continues to set new records, and pressures prices. CBOT wheat futures fell to a ten-year low affecting the Black Sea export prices. Compared with early September 2015, grain prices lost no less than USD 10/MT.

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Who drinks Ukrainian vodka?


Industrial processing of grain in Ukraine has demonstrated a downward trend over the last three years. Production of basic processed products has declined on average by 20% compared with 2013. For instance, beer production has fallen by 29%, vodka – by 43%, malt – by 19%. Only compound fodder production, which has decreased by only 1%, does not fit the overall picture.

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Ukraine. Grain supply and demand balance, August 2016


As of August 19, wheat and barley harvesting was almost complete. Farmers obtained 26.37 MMT of wheat and 9.77 MMT of barley in bunker weight. The weather was favorable during grain harvesting. Therefore, losses are expected to be minimal while grain finishing – 1.5-3%.

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Ukraine to gather second largest wheat harvest


Last week the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine published results of grain and oil crops sowing, as well as data on winter crops losses. This information usually comes to the market with some delay, when early grain harvesting is in full swing. Nevertheless, this data still deserves attention, as it is some kind of a checking mechanism to adjust production estimates.

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Markets for Ukrainian grain in season 2016/17


In 2016 Ukrainian farmers may gather one of the richest grain harvests. Amid low world prices and strong competition, the issue of new markets searching becomes highly important.

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Free falling grain prices in Ukraine


The beginning of season 2016/17 was marked by export prices reduction to six-year minimum. Only during the first week of the new season prices for all grain crops lost on average USD 7. And if we compare with the beginning of last season, currently prices are USD 40 lower.

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Ukraine gets free of wheat stocks


This season wheat exports from Ukraine are record high. In July-May Ukraine shipped abroad 15.6 MMT of wheat, which is 49% more than last season.

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Rains. And what about Ukrainian wheat quality?


Meteorologists say that there hasn’t been so rainy May in Ukraine for the last 20 years. In most of major grain and oilseeds producing regions precipitation amount ranged from 133% (in Odessa region) to 296% of the norm (in Kharkiv region). Even in the southern regions, which are considered to be risky for crop farming (Kherson/Mykolaiv), May rainfalls exceeded the norm by 66%. Is it good or bad? Let us consider the issue by agricultural crop.

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Ukrainian hemp to challenge stereotypes


Probably, there is no other agricultural crop which has ever experienced such a biased attitude as hemp. In 1930s the share of Soviet Union in world production of hemp reached about 80%. It was used for production of oil, ropes, fabrics and medicines. Since the beginning of 1960s the role of hemp in agriculture has been declining.

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Ukraine ceases wheat exports to EU


According to European Commission, by May 20 Ukraine had taken up the quota for wheat exports to EU countries by 99.64%. A little more than 3 KMT out of allowed 950 KMT remained undistributed. After distribution of the remaining quota and until the end of 2016 Ukrainian wheat will be supplied to EU market only with import duty. What does it mean for Ukrainian market?

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Ukrainian barley gained foothold in Chinese market


Spring barley sowing has been almost completed in Ukraine, which allows making preliminary estimates of barley production and exports in the 2016/17 marketing year.

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Ukraine: What factors push up grain prices?


In April Black Sea grain prices increased. Supposedly, high world grain stocks and upcoming harvesting, as well as raised production estimates should pressure prices. Nevertheless, both Russian and Ukrainian corn prices have strengthened by USD 15-18 since the beginning of April, meanwhile wheat prices have gained USD 6-10. The question now arises, what factors have triggered the recent price growth?

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Ukraine. Record high corn and sunflower sowing rate - casual event or new trend?


Profit margin is currently the main factor, which determines grain crops and oilseeds planted area. Corn is being seeded at a historically record pace. It should be mentioned that a survey of farmers conducted earlier showed that the majority of agrarians were going to leave corn planted area at the last year's level, or even reduce it. However, the weather is favorable, prices increased in the decision-making period, and seeding rates are unprecedentedly high, confidently moving towards the official forecast.

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Ukraine. Next 2016/17 grain season will become a turning point


The following trends should be expected in Ukraine in the next season:

- Reduction of winter crops production in favor of spring crops (decrease in wheat production in favor of corn);

- Change in the export trend (i.e. a new record will not be set);

- Continuation of domestic consumption downward trend.

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Who will replace China on Ukrainian corn market?


In the current 2015/16 marketing year Ukrainian export corn market can be characterized by reduced purchases from China. Shipments to PRC decreased to 1.8 MMT in comparison with 4.3 MMT last season. Nevertheless, there are still several months before the season’s end, but even now it is clear that exports will not reach the last year's level. The problem is that China has accumulated unprecedented corn stocks and intends to cut (if not completely close) the subsidy programs.

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Will Ukraine expand barley acreage?


The key topic, which is currently urgent for the agricultural market, is sowing campaign. In this regard, UkrAgroConsult decided to dwell upon grain harvest formation factors in 2016.

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Ukraine. Grain harvest in 2015 and production estimate for 2016


Last week the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine published its final data on 2015 harvest. According to official data, Ukraine produced 60.13 MMT of grain. This is 6.2% less than in record 2014.

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Ukrainian corn exports at three-year low


Relatively low corn production due to production due to reduction of planted area is a specific feature of season 2015/16. Low profitability of corn cultivation compared with wheat last season influenced farmers preferences, which resulted in significant expansion of winter wheat acreage, while corn planted area became the lowest over the last four years.

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Ukraine. Ways to prevent buckwheat prices increase


In late February – early March another surge of buckwheat groats prices was observed in Ukraine. The prices on Kyiv grocery shelves increased to UAH 30-35/kg mainly due to fundamental factors, including reduction of buckwheat groats production and increased prices for raw material – buckwheat grain. Since September 2015, when buckwheat harvesting started, and a new season began, buckwheat prices have grown by 32%.

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Ukraine. Will rye bread prices increase?


In early March Belarusian Commodity Exchange proudly reported on conclusion of the first export grain sale transaction – 15 KMT of rye amounting to over USD 1.5 million were sold to Ukraine.

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Russian experience of flexible duties


In February a year passed since the introduction of wheat export duty in Russia. UkrAgroConsult analyzed whether this restrictive measure fulfilled its function and its further prospects.

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Sunflower ousts wheat from Ukrainian fields


Over the last three months weather conditions have been neutral for winter crops in Ukraine. About 33% of all winter cereals and oilseeds (2.3 Ml ha) are currently weak and thinned. Nearly 1.7 Ml ha of wheat, 340 Th ha of barley and 200 Th ha of rapeseed are in risk zone. The weather is expected to be relatively favorable for winter crops in the coming month. It means that significant increase of winterkill is unlikely. This allows forecasting the planted area of spring crops in 2016, based on survived winter crops.

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Niche crops. Struggle for Ukrainian farmers


When we talk about Ukrainian grain sector, we usually mean wheat, corn and barley. However, we should take into account that the optimal size of farming enterprises engaged in traditional crops cultivation is 300-400 ha. If farming enterprises have this size of land area, or larger, the choice of crops is quite wide.

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Will Ukraine import buckwheat this season?


Buckwheat production is declining in Ukraine. Despite the planted area in 2015 corresponded to that of 2014, gross crop will be somewhat lower due to lower productivity. The final data will be published in the near future. Currently we have only preliminary information which states that Ukraine harvested 140 KMT of buckwheat from 93% of the intended area. Considering this we can estimate that total buckwheat production may reach 150 KMT in the final report.

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Ukrainian wheat triumph


Ukraine exported more than 10.5 MMT of wheat over the first half of the current season. This is almost as much as it was sold abroad during the whole season 2014/2015. By the season’s end export shipments are expected to reach 14 MMT, which is an all-time high for Ukraine.

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Reduction of crop products supplies to Russia. Is there any alternative?


Since January 2016, the free trade zone between Russia and Ukraine has been terminated. Moreover, on January 01 Russian Federation imposed an embargo on various Ukrainian products. Ukrainian officials estimate the potential losses at USD 450-750 million.

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Ukraine can produce nearly 20 MMT of winter grain in 2016


The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine has published the updated information on planted area of winter crops for the 2016 harvest. It should be noted that the final data for wheat and barley has undergone significant changes and exceeded our expectations. Consequently, UkrAgroConsult has revised its crop forecast for the next year.

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Grain exports unprofitable for Ukraine?


Last week the Agriculture Ministry reported to the government on results of their work this year. According to that report, in the 2014/2015 season Ukraine exported the record high volume of grain – almost 35 MMT. Ukraine became the third largest exporter of grain after the USA and EU.

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Turkish jackpot for Ukrainian grain


In light of strained relations between Russia and Turkey, the question how this may affect the food trade, and (which is of prime importance for Ukrainian business) whether Ukraine will be able to take advantage of the situation has been recently discussed in the market.

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UkrAgroConsult: First estimates of spring crop in 2016 are announced


Reduction of winter crops planted area creates preconditions for increase in acreage of spring grain and oil crops. UkrAgroConsult forecasts that grain area will increase by 1.77 Ml ha, and oilseeds acreage – by 0.7 Ml ha compared to last season.

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Southeast Asia becomes main export destination of Ukrainian wheat


This is no secret that Ukrainian wheat is in great demand in the world market. In the 2014/15 season exports reached 10.9 MMT, which is the highest level over the last 6 seasons. Egypt and Spain became the largest importers, as representatives of traditional market outlets for Ukraine – North Africa and Europe. Rich harvest in 2015 allows forecasting a new record this season. However, the implementation of this forecast depends a lot on market channels against the backdrop of tough competition among wheat sellers.

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Ukraine. Wheat pricing as reflection of winter sowing


Autumn is traditionally marked by a trend of rising prices for wheat in the domestic market. Moreover, the usual bullish factor of large purchases by exporters and flour milling enterprises is accompanied by concerns about considerable reduction of wheat harvest next year. These concerns have intensified as we approach the end of recommended time period for sowing on the background of persistent drought. Consequently, both export and domestic prices for wheat have been growing.

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Black Sea region is losing corn


In 2015 Black Sea countries may gather less corn than last year. Due to summer drought corn crop losses may reach about 4.5 MMT. All countries of the region have suffered from drought.

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Ukraine can face with a buckwheat deficit


This season buckwheat production has appeared the lowest for the last 5 years. Harvesting still continues, and had been completed only on 70% of acreage by September 10. However, reduction of planted area and low productivity do not give occasion to optimism. It is evident even now that harvest will not exceed 150 KMT, while usual food consumption totals about 160 KMT. Consequently, a deficit of buckwheat supply is expected in the new season.

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Ukraine. Forecast of grain production increases, while consumption declines…


As a reminder, this season started with some negative. If to compare this year with last one, in Ukraine it was characterized by reduction of grain crops planted area. In particular, corn and barley acreage was substantially reduced. Consequently, farmers expanded the planted area of more profitable oil crops. Moreover, the productivity of all grain crops is lower in the current season than last year due to weather conditions.

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Ukraine. Wheat production surpassed all expectations


Early in the year market operators cast a wary eye at the development of Ukrainian wheat crop. Wintering did not go well – crop conditions were the worst in the last three years. Weak winter crops required treatment with fertilizers and crop-protection agents, while economic situation in the country challenged the possibility of their application.

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Barley supply and demand, July 2015


The estimate of barley crop was raised by 0.2 MMT due to updated information on the planted area. The State Statistics Committee published the final data, according to which the planted area of spring barley equaled 1.7 Ml ha compared with the previous estimate of 1.5 Ml ha.

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On the possibility of Ukraine’s new industrialization at the expense of agricultural sector


Traditionally, Black Sea agricultural products attracted buyers by low prices against the background of acceptable quality. A rising tax burden initiates the dilemma: either a commodity price increase or a grower margin decrease. Exports will become less attractive in the former case and grain growing will become less attractive in the latter case.

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Ukrainian companies ousting international traders from domestic market – 2. New season started


International companies have dominated the market since the 1990’s, when Ukraine began active grain and oilseed exports. In the season that ended last week, about 21% of grain and oilseed complex exports were on account of foreign companies.

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What the new grain season is to bring to Russian traders?


Undoubtedly, the main novelty of the future season will be the export duty calculation formula. It has been argued for more than month now how effective the new mechanism will appear and how it will affect Russian farmers.

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Ukrainian companies squeezing international traders from domestic market

Substance of matter: Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a bill in first reading establishing VAT refunds to grain exporters which are agricultural producers or purchased grain from agricultural producers – VAT payers on a regular basis.

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Ukraine. Export of grain – source of foreign exchange inflow or threat to food security?


To answer the question, first we should determine how much foreign currency the grain sector of Ukraine can bring to the State treasury.

This year grain production is expected to be quite high – 54-55 MMT, and about 32 MMT can be shipped for export.

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Russian grain export in between duties


Over the next month Russian exporters will be able to export wheat freely. On May,15 Russia abolished the duty on wheat export, which had been in force for three months and a half.

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Grain prices will keep falling. Does it make sense to produce?


Last week USDA published the first forecasts of grain production in the next season. It is expected that the overall crop of wheat, barley and corn in the world will decrease by 0.85% to 1.848 Bl tonnes.

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Cereal and oilseed plantings in the temporarily occupied territories are greatly overestimated


When forecasting grain and oilseed harvests, companies operating in Ukraine usually had to take into account the weather and economic factors.

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Haricot bean has become the leader by profitability level

According to USDA forecast, the world prices for grains and oilseeds are not expected to rise during the next 10 years, and on average they will be lower than during the last 10 years.

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Ukraine will have less barley. No big deal?


Another devaluation surge of the Ukrainian Hryvnya has developed an extremely dynamic price situation in the agricultural market. The purchase prices of traders change almost hourly. In winter such circumstances were a signal for farmers to follow only one strategy – “restrain sales”. However, at the threshold of spring sowing this tactics is no longer appropriate, as farmers need money to purchase material and technical resources. In the context of absence of credit financing, they can obtain this money only by selling goods.

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Does Europe need Ukrainian corn - 2

The research conducted by UkrAgroConsult shows that fundamental change in global markets, unfortunately, has not virtually influenced the strategy of the agrarian sector of Ukraine. The main attention is still focused on the increase in grain production volume, while low attention is given to profitability and efficiency of this industry.

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Production of corn seeds becomes more profitable


A new season may become a turning point for the use of corn seeds of foreign and domestic selection. UkrAgroConsult estimates that in 2014 about 63% of corn fields were sown with imported seeds. A significant growth of import cost will provoke a change of long-term trend of increasing use of foreign seeds

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Does Europe need Ukrainian corn?


When preparing for spring planting, each grain grower gets to choose which spring crop to prefer. In the present difficult economic situation, the banal lack of money may appear the decisive factor, and farmers will be forced to sow the least costly crop. Nevertheless, according to surveys conducted by UkrAgroConsult, grain growers remain adherent to corn, though this crop is expensive to produce. 

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Starch production in Ukraine becoming increasingly profitable


UkrAgroConsult continues a series of materials devoted to the unique chance for production development that is given by the economic crisis in Ukraine. This time our attention is drawn to the starch market.

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Ukraine optimizing cereal plantings


At the stage of preparation for spring planting, the farmland distribution between crops becomes a more important issue once again.

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UkrAgroConsult: Change of favorites in the wheat market


Traditionally, Black Sea grain plays a leading part in the first half of marketing year, i.e. in July-December. Ukrainian and Russian grain exports begin to shrink from January, giving way to wheat from the U.S., Europe, and the Southern Hemisphere countries.

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Ukraine may enter the top ten of flour exporters


Ukraine exports grain at an unprecedentedly rapid pace this season. Grain exports are a key source of the country’s foreign currency revenue, therefore the role of the agricultural sector in Ukraine’s economy can hardly be overestimated.

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Wheat market surging on news from Russia


The Russian grain market experienced a few shocks last week. Firstly, traders reported that phytosanitary certificates for grain exports are not issued any more. The reasons for the refusal are not explained but, according to law, the service has the right not to issue a certificate within three days without explaining the reason. Rumors circulate that certificates are issued only for exports to a limited range of countries, including Turkey, Egypt, India and Armenia.

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Ukraine will harvest a heavy wheat crop next year


According to the first forecasts of UkrAgroConsult, the 2015 wheat crop may reach 20 MMT, i.e. exceed the five-year average. The main reasons for our optimism are as follows:

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Ukraine. Corn. Parade's End


In September, UkrAgroConsult reduced its corn crop forecast by 4% from the previous estimate, to 25.9 MMT, because of a drop in both yields and plantings. In our opinion, roughly 25% and 30% of corn areas are lost for harvest in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, respectively, as damaged by the warfare.

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USDA published the first forecast grain supply and demand balances for 2014/15.


Wheat. Russia will produce 52 MMT of wheat, i.e. as much as last season. At the same time, exports will reach 19 MMT against 18.2 MMT in 2013/14. Ukraine’s wheat output is expected to drop by 2.23 MMT to 20 MMT with exports correspondingly down 1 MMT at 8.5 MMT.

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Season of 2014-2015: Times of big risks and big opportunities


Perhaps, every agricultural season both in Ukraine and worldwide has its peculiarities and risks for business. The year of 2012/13 featured a grain crop failure in the U.S. and Russia that enabled Ukrainian grain to get to new markets.

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Wheat prices in the U.S. grew on fears of insufficient planting in Crimea


Yesterday, on March 11, wheat prices grew in Chicago, Kansas, and Minneapolis. Exchange analysts say the key reason is reported problems with spring planting in Crimea. We hasten to dispel the fears that the problems in Crimea may substantially affect Ukraine’s overall grain harvest and grain exports.

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Unstable political situation in Ukraine has no effect on grain exports


A great number of phonecalls and letters was received in UkrAgroConsult from our partners on last week. Unstable political situation makes agrarian market`s operators worry about the grain shipments from Ukrainian ports and about the spring crops sowing prospects as well. We are thankful to our colleagues for support and would like to assure that sea ports of Ukraine are working according to the ordinary schedule and spring sowing is on the go, according to L'USINENOUVELLE.com..        

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