Maryna Sych

Sych Maryna – grain market analyst Sych Maryna – grain market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult ".

She is specializing in the study of the major trends in the grain market of Ukraine and Black Sea countries.




Education – Higher, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Masters in “Finance and Credit” (2012)


Analyst's publications:

Bulgaria becoming no longer competitive outside the EU


According to UkrAgroConsult’s estimates, Bulgaria’s harvest of major grains dropped by 5% this season. Consequently, a downturn is observed in grain supplies from the country.

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Kazakhstan. Record barley crop against the background of declining wheat production


According to official information of the Statistics Committee of Kazakhstan, total production of grains and pulses in the country approximated 20.3 MMT in 2018, or 1.5% less than in 2017.

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Preliminary grain harvest results in Ukraine


According to official preliminary information of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the 2018 crop production results, the country harvested a total 69.8 MMT of grains and pulses, or 12.7% more than in 2017. The 2018 grain crop increase is accounted for by a rise in corn production to a record level for the country.

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Russia. Forecast for the 2019 grain crop


Russia has big plans for 2019. The country is going to expand its acreage of grains and pulses for the 2019 harvest to a 20-year high (up 2.8% from 2018).

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Black Sea region to continue enhancing its position in the world arena


The Black Sea region plays an increasingly substantial role in the world wheat arena. In the past season 2017/18, the Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan) met roughly 35% of the world’s demand for wheat.

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Ukraine. Grain crop forecast for 2019


At the close of 2018, the State Statistics Service published data on the areas planted to winter crops. As UkrAgroConsult predicted, an appreciable expansion is seen in wheat and barley plantings.

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Barley. Why does the most expensive grain crop remain “unpromising”?


Barley remains the most expensive major grain crop for a second consecutive season – its price still exceeds even that of high-protein wheat. Barley prices in the export market are at a nearly five-year high, but why do growers “not believe” in this crop and decline to expand its plantings even despite such a high price level?

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Russian wheat: unless the government limits its exports, the domestic market will do this


The first half of the 2018/19 season in the Black Sea region is drawing to a close. Russian wheat was the main crop in the grain market at the time. Despite a decrease in its crop, wheat exports from Russian are still record high, continuing to warm up the entire world market.

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Ukrainian corn’s position in the world market in MY 2018/19


Despite snow and current weather conditions, the corn harvest in Ukraine continues. As of December 7, it was 98% complete. Roughly 100 Th ha remains to be harvested.

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Persistently strong position of Russia in the global pulse market


Following the 2017/18 season, which was successful for Russia’s market of grains and pulses, the country’s producers were not ready to rest.

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Black Sea region. Fall planting summary and distribution of grain planted areas in 2019/20 season


The fall planting in the Black Sea region is drawing to a close. The optimum time frame for winter grains ended long ago. Moreover, weather conditions prompted farmers to wrap up planting activities.

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Black Sea region. Fall planting summary and distribution of grain planted areas in 2019/20 season


The fall planting in the Black Sea region is drawing to a close. The optimum time frame for winter grains ended long ago. Moreover, weather conditions prompted farmers to wrap up planting activities.

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Grain production in Kazakhstan to remain high in 2018


As expected, Kazakhstan closed the 2017/18 season with a new record in the grain market.

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Ukraine. Features of 2018/19 grain export season


Following the production increase, grain exports are also expected to grow by 8-9% in MY 2018/19. However, the season has a few peculiarities.

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Black Sea corn crop to hit a record high


The corn harvest in the Black Sea region is gaining pace, and the yield figures only add to expectations of a bumper corn crop in the region, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts report.

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Russia's grain export potential to decrease 20%


The harvest of major grains in Russia is entering the final straight, and weather conditions continue adjusting the country’s grain crop potential.

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Ukraine. Autumn sowing or which crops the market will choose in season 2019/20


A sowing of winter cereals has started in Ukraine. Warm and dry weather was typical for the first ten days of September. Only in the central and southern regions of Ukraine local rains of different intensity were seen in recent days. Dry and hot weather led to an air and soil drought, which created unfavorable conditions for winter cereals sowing for the 2019 crop, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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UkrAgroConsult raising its forecast for corn production in Ukraine


The start of corn harvesting in Ukraine is getting nearer, and prospects for this crop’s production in the country are still improving. Favorable weather conditions while corn pollination and grain filling increased its yield potential considerably.

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Ukraine's share in the world flour market is growing


Flour production in Ukraine continues following a downward trend this year. Nonetheless, exports of the product are still on the rise, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Wheat crop in Bulgaria expected to hit a three-year low


The harvest of wheat and barley in Bulgaria is drawing to a close. Like in the major Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia), first these crops suffered from drought in the grain formation period, and then from abundant rains at the height of the harvest.

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Is Ukraine standing on the threshold of a corn record?


Mass harvesting of early cereals and pulses is under way all over the country. The harvest of wheat and barley is already more than half-complete. As of July 19, winter wheat had been harvested from 62% of its area in the country. Yields are lower than last year in most regions of Ukraine, but they show gains in some of its central and western parts.

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Return of Ukrainian wheat to the Vietnamese market: prospects and obstacles


This month featured an important piece of news for Ukraine’s grain market: the Ag Ministry of Vietnam has decided to resume imports of Ukrainian wheat, which had been banned for three years because of quality complaints. However, what are the real odds of a rise in Ukrainian wheat exports to this market in MY 2018/19?

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Russia. Weather factor reducing grain planted areas and crop potential


Spring sowing in Russia is nearly over. Like in the case of Ukraine, it featured smaller-than-projected planted areas of most major cereals in favor of oil crops. This was caused by a number of factors ranging from price to weather ones, which had a decisive impact on each of the crops, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Drought decreasing Ukraine’s barley and wheat production potential


Spring planting in Ukraine is drawing to an end. Smaller-than-projected areas have been planted to almost all cereals, both major and niche ones.

A precipitation deficit combined with record high air temperatures in May leads to rapid exhaustion of soil moisture content. The latter is now at a few-year low, shrinking every day due to insufficient precipitation, report UkrAgroConsult’s analysts.

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Kazakhstan setting new export records following Russia


In 2017, Kazakhstan harvested one of its heaviest grain crops since 2011 that enhanced the country’s export potential appreciably. At the same time, despite persistently intensifying competition from Russia’s grain market, the current season, unlike the previous one, did see a noticeable rise in Kazakh grain shipments to foreign markets, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Black Sea region enhancing its role in the pea market


The current 2017/18 season is drawing to an end with new achievements of the Black Sea region in the pulses market. 

Traditionally, the main pulse crop in Ukraine and Russia is peas, which now account for 75-85% of total pulse production in these countries.

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Choice of Ukrainian farmers: corn or soybeans?


Sowing of spring cereals and pulses in Ukraine is drawing to an end. Because of spring weather peculiarities, the final pattern of spring sowings will differ substantially from the initial plan.

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Bulgarian barley to hit a new abysmal low


Bulgaria exports wheat at a record pace this season. The reason is its all-time high production in the country in 2017.

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Ukraine’s barley crop to fall to a five-year low


Spring barley planting in Ukraine is drawing to an end, and the forecasts about its shortfall are coming true.

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Ukraine. Weather adjusting growers’ plans


Safe survival of winter crops leaves little room for spring crops. The planted area of winter crops is larger than last year due to expanded plantings of wheat and rape.

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Russia. 2017/18 grain success and outlook for the future


Less than three months are left before the start of the new season, and the trade in new-crop grain is gradually picking up the pace. However, no decline is envisaged in old-crop grain purchases yet.

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Kazakh barley exports hit a 25-year high


Barley exports from Kazakhstan somewhat slowed down in February 2018. They totaled 170.9 KMT, i.e. 15% less than in January 2018 but 108% more than in February 2017 (82 KMT).

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Ukraine enhancing the focus on grain processing


Grain export margin has reduced substantially in recent years due to persistently aggravating competition in this business. Consequently, an increasing number of grain market players are seeking to somehow raise their marginality. One of the ways out of the present situation is food grain processing.

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Ukraine. Weather playing into hands of corn


This year’s long winter in Ukraine may cause farmers to adjust the pattern of spring-seeded areas.

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Ukraine to harvest more wheat and barley in 2018


The corn season in the Black Sea region is in full swing from the viewpoint of both exports and prices.

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Ukraine to harvest more wheat and barley in 2018


The spring has come to Ukraine. Although it is here only according to the calendar yet, some conclusions can already be drawn about loss and condition of winter cereals after the winter.

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Kazakhstan bet on barley at the right time


The National Economy Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan has published data on the country’s total crop and adjusted plantings for the 2017 harvest. In addition, the release includes somewhat surprising figures for grain yields.

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Ukraine. Will millet provide competition to buckwheat?


Buckwheat is still a topical subject for the Ukrainian market because it is a food of social importance in the country. We already wrote about this in the article “A speculative buckwheat market in Ukraine”. Today it is necessary to look at buckwheat from the viewpoint of producers, not consumers: what is happening in Ukraine’s buckwheat market and where it is moving now.

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Russia is not missing the opportunity to realize its export potential


At the end of 2017, the Russian State Statistics Service published preliminary data on grain crops and yields in the country. According to its information, the 2017 crop of cereals and pulses totaled 134.13 MMT in net weight and 140.98 MMT in bunker weight.

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Ukraine. Grain crop forecast for 2018


At the end of 2017 the State Statistics Committee published its figures on planted areas of winter crops. As UkrAgroConsult predicted, winter wheat plantings expanded appreciably, while barley and rye areas decreased to some extent.

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On the “lentil boom” in Kazakhstan


The “lentil boom” in Kazakhstan started not so long ago. It is the last two years which witness sharp growth of Kazakh farmers’ interest in this crop.

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UkrAgroConsult cut its estimate for Black Sea corn production by 1 MMT


The corn harvest in Ukraine may already be said to have finished. Unlike last year, farmers managed to gather in almost all the crop before the actual arrival of winter. Just few fields remain unharvested, mostly in the north of the country, but they hardly will change the overall picture of the corn crop in Ukraine. Despite growth of the average corn yield in the country following the harvest advance, this year’s figures are nevertheless appreciably lower than in 2016.

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What Ukraine’s grain market will show in 2018


Ahead of the New Year, UkrAgroConsult Company traditionally assesses the distribution of crop planted areas for next year’s harvest.

Below we’ll consider in more detail possible patterns of placing staple crops in Ukraine in the current market conditions.

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Black Sea grain exports in the conditions of growing freight rates


The end of the current year features a rather sharp rise in freight rates. This affects the competitive position of grains from different regions depending on the end market.

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Russia may become the top grain exporter in the Black Sea region


The current 2017/18 season was marked by a bumper crop of grains and pulses in Russia and the market expects Russian grain exports to set a similar record. In particular, Russia is predicted to regain its leading position in global wheat exports. However, this may be not the country’s only achievement in the world grain market this season.

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India: Ukraine’s partner or competitor in the wheat market?


Last week’s hot topic in the grain market was the Indian government’s decision to double its import duty on wheat. The wheat import duty was raised from 10% to 20% from November 8 in order to support national growers and restrict deliveries of cheaper wheat from abroad. This news directly concerns Black Sea wheat exports to India, mostly from Ukraine.

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Ukraine. Breakdown of winter crop plantings


The planting of winter crops in Ukraine is drawing to an end, and it is the right time now to assess the breakdown of crop plantings.

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UkrAgroConsult cuts its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop


The corn harvest in Ukraine is in full swing: farmers have already harvested over 60% of the projected area. Its progress is now 5% ahead of 2016, though it lagged behind last year some time ago. The same cannot be said of corn yield, which is down 16-18% year-on-year (nevertheless, it shows an upward trend).

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UkrAgroConsult raises grain production estimates for Russia


The harvest of staple cereals in Russia is drawing to an end. The average wheat and barley yields in the country impress most market participants. So, the current wheat yield in Russia is 15.4% higher than last year, while that of barley is up 18.7% year-on-year.

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Success of Russian corn is not long-lasting


As expected, the 2016/17 corn season in Russia ended with new records. Russian exporters supplied over 5.64 MMT of corn to foreign markets this past marketing year that is 24% more than a year ago. So, corn exports from the country hit an all-time high.

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Kazakhstan will reduce wheat supply to the world market


The new grain season 2017/18 started in Kazakhstan in September. Below UkrAgroConsult will sum up the past season 2016/17 and discuss once again prospects for the new grain season.

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Ukraine may increase barley plantings


According to the USDA estimates, the global crop of barley will be below its global consumption for a second season in a row. This trend will lead to a substantial decrease in barley stocks in the world. Global barley inventories are expected to shrink to a 34-year low of 18.6 MMT by the end of MY 2017/18.

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2017/18 prospects of Black Sea wheat in the Egyptian market


Egypt will continue to be the top destination for Ukrainian wheat exports in the 2017/18 season. However, Black Sea wheat supplies to this market may get affected by tougher requirements of the state-owned GASC.

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A speculative buckwheat market in Ukraine


Traditionally, since five years ago, the start of the buckwheat season in Ukraine has been marked by an information campaign claiming that the country is allegedly short of this product and, therefore, prices are to grow. And the new 2017/18 season is no exception. In turn, UkrAgroConsult will also traditionally try to dismantle this myth.

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Ukraine to continue topping the list of Black Sea grain exporters


The harvest of early cereals is over in Ukraine, and market participants are generally glad with its results. In particular, despite adverse weather conditions, barley and rye yields in Ukraine hit new highs this year.

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Rapidly increasing role of the Black Sea region in the pea market


The pea harvest is over in Ukraine. According to current harvest progress reports, the Y2017 gross pea crop in bunker weight is 44% higher than last year. This result was achieved primarily due to a pea acreage expansion to a 20-year high. However, a higher average yield contributed to the crop record, too. Although having decreased 17% from last year’s high, the pea yield is now at one of the highest levels for Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Russia. Grain market on the verge of new records or problems?


The beginning of the new 2017/18 grain season in Russia has a déjà vu effect. As usually, in winter the market is very cautious when making any forecasts, because of possibly weather negative influence, which is very difficult to predict. But as harvesting began and new yields highs were achieved, all market participants started to raise their grain production estimates, as it was last year.

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Will Bulgaria repeat last year’s wheat success?


In Bulgaria, this past 2016/17 season was marked not only by a bumper crop of wheat, but also by its record exports.

Bulgarian exporters supplied an all-time record 4.17 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in the marketing year 2016/17. This is up 28% year-on-year and almost 10% above the previous record of 3.8 MMT set in MY 2013/14.

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Russia returned its wheat export leadership to the USA


The 2016/17 grain season in Russia ended not very successfully. As UkrAgroConsult mentioned before, the country failed to realize its wheat and barley export potential for a number of reasons. However, a much more interesting and positive situation is seen in the corn market. Although the end of the corn season is still two months away, export deliveries from Russia have already set an all-time record, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Russian corn reinforcing its position in the world market


The 2016/17 grain season in Russia ended not very successfully. As UkrAgroConsult mentioned before, the country failed to realize its wheat and barley export potential for a number of reasons. However, a much more interesting and positive situation is seen in the corn market. Although the end of the corn season is still two months away, export deliveries from Russia have already set an all-time record, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Ukrainian barley. Preliminary 2016/17 results and outlook for the new season


The 2016/17 barley season in Ukraine is over. Let’s sum up its preliminary results and discuss outlooks for the new marketing year 2017/18.

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Kazakhstan: 2017/18 grain crop


Planting of spring cereals is over in Kazakhstan. Despite having been exposed to occasional weather adversities, it did end in time. According to current data of Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry, sown acreage of spring spiked cereals shrank by 2%. As projected, the main reduction took place in wheat.

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Drought and grain harvest in Ukraine


Planting of spring cereals in Ukraine ended this past week. According to the Ag Ministry, the total planted area for the Y2017 harvest is expected at 26.9 Ml ha, or 152 Th ha larger than last year.

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Déjà vu effect: a story about Egypt and ergot


It became known this past week that Egypt may return to the zero-ergot standard for imported wheat.

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Bulgaria. Prospects for 2017/18 grain season


The current grain season is entering its final stage. The most noteworthy changes that happened in Bulgaria’s grain market include, first of all, a bumper harvest and record exports of wheat in 2016/17 season, while the barley and corn crops were at some of their lowest levels in recent several years.

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Russian barley’s prospects in 2017/18 season


The planting in Russia is in full swing now: spring cereals have already been sown on almost three-fourth of their planned area. Spring barley has been sown on over 80% of the projected acreage. At the same time, according to current reports, the planting pace lags 5-6% behind last year. However, this year’s late arrival of warmth postponed planting and Russian farmers still have a possibility to sow as much spring barley as planned, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Kazakhstan cannot realize its grain export potential


Although more than half the grain season in Kazakhstan is already over, the pace of grain exports from the country is still incomparable with achieving its export potential. Like in the case of Russia, this season’s five-year highest grain crop in Kazakhstan does not yet imply record export shipments. Remarkably, the situation is similar to the Russian one even regarding staple crops, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Russia – Turkey: rebooting the grain market


One and a half months after Turkey’s imposition of restrictions on Russian grain and sunoil supplies, the authorities solved the problem of exports to the Turkish market. In the result of the May 3 meeting of the Russian and Turkish presidents, an agreement was achieved to lift mutual trade restrictions between the countries, including removing restrictive duties on Russian grain exports to Turkey but excluding Turkish tomato deliveries to Russia.

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Is there a chance for wheat price growth?


The 2016/17 wheat season is already drawing to an end, while 2017-crop wheat sales, on the contrary, are gathering pace rapidly. Just two months are left till the harvest and the weather provides surprise after surprise, therefore market participants have focused their attention on the outlook for next season.

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Russia able to retain its top position in world wheat exports


Just a couple months are left till the end of the current season, but Russia still keeps the world market intrigued about the grain export plan fulfillment, UkrAgroConsult.

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Ukraine may retain its record export potential next season


Last week the Agrarian Policy Ministry of Ukraine updated its forecast for spring planted areas. The changes concerned all the staple cereals: plantings of spring wheat and barley were reduced in favor of corn.

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Ukrainian flour winning new markets


Ukrainian flour exports hit a 20-year high of over 340 KMT in the 2015/16 season. As expected, the upward trend in flour supplies from the country continued into MY 2016/17, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Ukraine regaining its “pea” position


Last year’s trend toward restoration of Ukraine’s pea planted acreage is gaining pace in 2017 as well. Growers have calculated this crop’s increasing margin in the country and decided to expand its portion in their crop rotations.

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Russia – Turkey: an apple of discord


The breaking news of the last week was another exacerbation of the Russian – Turkish trading relations.

On March 15, Turkey suspended the issuance of licenses for duty-free wheat and corn deliveries from some EU countries and Russia. This decision also applies to sunmeal and vegoil supplies from Russia.

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Ukraine managed to open new markets in view of shrinking deliveries to the EU


Although a few months are still left until the end of the current season, Ukraine has already realized three-fourths of its grain export potential of MY 2016/17, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Is Japan an unattainable goal for the Black Sea region?


Information has surfaced this week that Japan had unsealed its strategic corn reserves.

Back in mid-February Japanese compound feed producers reported a decrease in corn inventories to a critically low level. And last week Japan’s Ag Ministry permitted millers to use emergency corn reserves because operational stocks appeared at a critical level due to delayed supplies from the U.S. – the top supplier of this cereal crop to the Japanese market. The U.S. Pacific ports stopped shipping export grain cargoes in the middle of February due to sharp weather deterioration.

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Kazakh “records” were overestimated


The Agriculture Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported the results of the 2016 harvest campaign. The statistics update appeared to be not so impressive as suggested by promising figures obtained during the grain harvest in the country.

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Russia. 2017/18 outlook


Russia’s Ag Ministry forecasts the country’s 2017 total seed acreage at over 80 Ml ha for the first time in 15 years. It is to reach 80.1 Ml ha, up 600 Th ha from 2016.

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Bulgaria expanding markets for its wheat


The year of 2016 was successful for Bulgarian wheat. The nation got the highest yield and reached a record total wheat crop that was up 16% from 2015.

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Record grain exports from Russia: to be or not to be?


Last week’s most important news included another adjustment in the Russian Ag Ministry’s forecast for 2016/17 grain exports from the country, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Iran replacing China as a market for Ukrainian corn exports


For Ukrainian corn, the season 2016/17 features primarily growth of competition in the world market due to substantially increased export availabilities of corn in Ukraine and major global growers such as the USA, Argentina and Brazil.

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India became the top importer of Ukrainian wheat


The current season 2016/17 started in Ukraine with a record fast pace of grain exports, including wheat deliveries. At the same time, UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukrainian wheat export availabilities will shrink by 7-8% in 2016/17 from the previous season in view of some crop decrease.

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Arab world prefer Ukrainian barley


Ukraine’s 2016 barley harvest was the richest in seven years at 9.5 MMT. UkrAgroConsult forecasts 2016/17 export potential of Ukrainian barley at some 5.3 MMT, or up 20% from a year ago.

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Russian wheat exports up from last year


At last, in the fifth month of the current season, Russian wheat exports outpaced last year’s shipments. Russia exported 2851.6 KMT of wheat in November 2016 that is 46% more than 1955.6 KMT in November 2015. This jump in November’s exports results from expanding high-quality wheat supply in the domestic market and enabled exporters to somewhat catch up.

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Russia becoming another rival in the world corn market


Russia will get a bumper corn crop in 2016/17. Growers harvested over 15 MMT by December 16. More than 10% of corn is still left in the fields, but harvesting is going on, though at a slow pace.

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Russia. Paradox in the barley market


As UkrAgroConsult wrote before, the pace of Russian grain exports in 2016/17 falls short of market expectations. And most questions among market participants are raised by the current situation with barley.

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Bulgaria reducing barley sown acreage in favor of rapeseed


Bulgaria’s fall planting has come to its final stage. The country experienced contradictory weather conditions in the course of this work, reports UkrAgroConsult. On the one hand, abundant October precipitation replenished soil moisture and produced a beneficial effect on growth of already sown winter crops. On the other hand, this precipitation stopped planting in most of the country’s regions.

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Russian wheat coming to Ukraine’s export markets


Potentially, Russian wheat supplies to the global market can hit a new high this season. In fact, the pace of exports is far from record fast, reports UkrAgroConsult. Russian exporters shipped abroad about 10.4 MMT of wheat in July-October 2016/17, or 1.5% less than at the same time last season. However, this article will dwell on another trend: growth of coarse wheat shipments and declining exports of high-protein wheat.

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Ukraine. Social foods prices are hovering


In September 2016, strong public interest was aroused by the Cabinet’s decision to cancel state regulation of prices and mark-ups for socially sensitive goods, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Ukrainian corn market awaiting price surge


Most of market participants are currently focused on corn, reports UkrAgroConsult. But various complications, both for producers and traders emerged in the domestic market with the start of corn season.

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Black Sea region: high production – low quality?


This season wheat quality issues are particularly acute. UkrAgroConsult constantly follows the situation in all countries of the region and continues to publish analytical materials on the question.

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Black Sea region – world largest wheat supplier


In the current season the Black Sea region has become the key player in the world wheat market by achieving record high productivity during the 2016 harvesting campaign. No doubt, in the 2016/17 marketing year the region will confirm the leadership as world largest wheat supplier, reports UkrAgroConsult. But will the key countries of the region sell as much grain, and particularly wheat, as expected by the market?

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Russia opens new markets to sell all-time high grain crop


While Russian farmers are finishing grain crop harvesting, Russian authorities are actively looking for an answer to the main question of the current season – to whom sell the grain?

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Bulgarian corn less attractive to farmers


During the second consecutive season Bulgaria loses ground in corn market. While Ukraine, Russia and Romania increase corn production, Bulgarian farmers might have decided not to enter this competition.

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Grain exports from Kazakhstan to reach five-year high


Harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan is coming to its end. Kazakh farmers gathered 22 MMT of grain from 95% of the intended area owing to high productivity, reports UkrAgroConsult. Average grain yields in the country surpassed the last year’s level by 25%. As expected, this season Kazakhstan will obtain record high grain crop over the last five years.

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Corn exports from Russia may hit record


Corn harvesting in Russia is gaining pace. This grain harvest has been gathered from about 20% of the intended area, but it is already clear now that Russian corn production will be record high.

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Russia loses ground in Saudi Arabia


Barley harvesting in Russia entered the final straight. More than 18.2 MMT of barley were collected from about 93% of acreage, which already exceeds last year’s harvest. According to UkrAgroConsult, this year Russia will obtain 9% more barley than a year before.

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Indian market opens to Ukrainian wheat


In the 2016/17 season India will become wheat net importer for the first time in six years. In the current season USDA estimates wheat production in India at the lowest level since the 2012/13 marketing year. Moreover, over the past five seasons domestic wheat consumption in the country has increased by 10 MMT (by 4.5 MMT since the last season).

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Kazakhstan - Russia: struggle for Iranian market


The 2015/16 grain season is coming to an end in Kazakhstan (September 2015-August 2016). High exports of basic grain crops and flour, as UkrAgroConsult already mentioned in the previous article “Black Sea flour conquers world" was the main feature of the 2015/16 marketing year in Kazakhstan, as well as in Ukraine and in Russia. However, in case of Kazakhstan, grain shipments did not reach all-time high, but still became the highest since 2011/12.

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Black Sea flour conquers world


The 2015/16 season was remarkable for Black Sea region not only owing to grain, but also its processed products records. First of all, we are talking about flour.

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Russia. Wheat production is likely to surpass all expectations


The beginning of 2016/17 season was characterized by constantly raised grain production estimates. Revision of harvesting area expectations and record high grain yields were the main drivers of crop estimates increase.

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Bulgaria remains one of key wheat suppliers in EU


Wheat and barley harvesting is almost complete in Bulgaria, and corn harvesting is approaching. Let's consider prospects for Bulgarian grain in the 2016/17 season and the main results of the 2015/16 marketing year.

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Ukraine to glut Asia with peas


Peas harvesting is nearly over in Ukraine. Its results pleased both produsers and UkrAgroConsult. As we already wrote in the previous article about Ukrainian peas - "Ukrainian peas – opening of season 2016/17", this year in Ukraine peas acreage exceeded last year’s area by 33% and reached five-year high. And not only favorable weather during sowing contributed to this.

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Wheat heat production decrease in EU – chance for Black Sea suppliers


EU's wheat is currently one of the most discussed issues in global agricultural community. The entire agricultural world follows news from French fields, which have suffered from excessive rainfalls this year. Let’s try to understand the current situation, namely market expectations for wheat production in the EU, particularly in France and prospects for Black Sea wheat in the 2016/17 season.

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Russian record high wheat harvest brings pressure to market


In 2016 analysts revise upwards wheat production estimates in Russia almost every day. Favorable agro-climatic conditions during vegetation and grain ripening periods, as well as expansion of acreage during spring sowing appeared to be the main reasons for that.

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Black Sea region becomes top world supplier of grain


The 2015/16 season is almost complete. Summarizing the results of this season, UkrAgroConsult emphasizes record high exports from the key Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan).

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Ukraine to supply EU with sorghum


After significant reduction of sorghum acreage in Ukraine in recent years, in 2016 grain producers have decided to somewhat restore the planted area. Ukrainian farmers have already sown sorghum at 75 Th ha of intended 83 Th ha, which is 41% more than last year.

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Ukraine. Agiotage in buckwheat groats market


Buckwheat groats prices continue to grow in Ukraine. Currently retail prices in Ukraine sometimes reach UAH 50/kg. UkrAgroConsult has already mentioned before that price growth was mainly triggered by abysmal low buckwheat harvest in the country over the last five years.

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Bulgarian wheat. New season prospects


In the 2016/17 season Bulgarian farmers decided to expand wheat planted area after reduction during the last three years. According to official data of the Agriculture Ministry, in 2015 winter wheat was sown at 1130 Th ha, which was 8% more than a year before.

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Russia outtrades USA and Canada in export wheat market


This season has become a record-breaking for Russian grain market. It is also subject to wheat exports, which may become record high ever. If forecasts come true, Russia will become the largest wheat supplier in the world market, leaving behind such wheat giants as USA and Canada. Only European Union may offer more wheat in the market. Wheat exports from the EU may reach 32 MMT this season.

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Russia to strengthen positions in Arab barley markets


Next season barley production in Russia will increase, despite reduction of acreage. UkrAgroConsult estimates that barley production will rise by 2-3% (17.8 MMT compared to 17.4 MMT in 2015/16). Favorable weather conditions in winter and spring contribute to production growth.

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Ukrainian peas – sensation of season 2016/17


This season spring sowing campaign in Ukraine may be characterized by significant expansion of peas acreage. Initial forecast equaled 182 Th ha, but Ukrainian farmers have managed to sow 226 Th ha. This is 33% more than last year. This is a record high peas planted area in Ukraine over the last five years.

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Russia to provide all neighboring countries with buckwheat


Before early 2000s buckwheat acreage in Russia was nearly 1.5-1.8 Ml ha. Since 2001 buckwheat planted area has decreased considerably – by almost 50% to 0.8-0.9 Ml ha. During this period a gradual reduction of spring crops acreage in favor of winter crops, mainly wheat, was observed in Russia.

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Black Sea countries become the largest world exporters of wheat bran


Following wheat flour, wheat bran becomes another promising export commodity for the Black Sea countries. In common with other grain crops and oilseeds, currency devaluation in the region stimulated exports of all commodities surplus including wheat bran. Abstracting from the worsening of economic situation in Ukraine, it is worth noting that exports have been persistently growing since the 2012/13 season.

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Next 2016/17 season will become a turning point for Kazakh wheat


According to preliminary estimates of the Agriculture Ministry of Kazakhstan, grain planted area will increase by more than 200 Th ha in 2016, due to reduction of oilseeds acreage.

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Russia. Wheat production will decrease in season 2016/17


Taking into account spring wheat acreage estimates of Russian Ministry of Agriculture, and planted are of winter wheat, UkrAgroConsult expects a reduction of wheat production by 2.6% in the 2016/17 season.

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Russia heads towards record high corn exports


Current season in Russia is characterized by record high exports of agricultural crops. Devaluation of Russian ruble stimulated shipments from Russian Federation significantly. Corn is one of those crops, exports of which have already reached one of the highest levels this season. Record high production in 2015 allowed increasing exports considerably.

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Rice or buckwheat: Russia's choice


As in Ukraine, groats production in Russia declined in 2015. Summarizing the results of 2015, production of groats in Russia reached 1424.9 KMT. This is 6% less than a year before. In 2016 the trend of further production decrease continued. In January-February Russia produced 7% less groats than during the same time last year (219.9 KMT compared with 236.7 KMT).

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Pea wars: Russia vs USA


Russia is the second largest global producer of peas after Canada, although the share of peas in Russian total grain and legumes production is no more than 2%. However, over the last five years Russia has managed to become the world's second largest exporter of peas, leaving behind such world's major suppliers as the USA, France and Australia.

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Ukraine and Russia leave Bulgarian corn no chance for success


The current season appeared to be quite difficult for Bulgarian grain market. The lowest wheat and corn production for the last three seasons alongside with growing world production has had a negative impact on grain exports from Bulgaria. Grain production declined by 17% this season.

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What will Russia sow? Wheat or corn?


Last week Russian Ministry of Agriculture published its acreage forecast for 2016. As earlier, attention was attracted to corn. The Ministry estimates that corn planted area will be expanded by 7.1%, which is almost 200 Th ha.

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Kazakhstan. Grain supply and demand, February 2016


UkrAgroConsult raised the estimate of grain and legumes production in Kazakhstan after the State Statistics Service published updated information on 2015 harvesting.

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Saudi barley market– fight arena for Russian and Ukrainian traders


At the end of the first half of 2015/16 MY we can sum up that barley export season has almost come to a close in the Black sea region. Currently export capacity of the region is 87% fulfilled. Over this period Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and also Bulgaria exported about 8 MMT which is approximately 30% of the world exports.

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Russia or Kazakhstan – which wheat supplier will Turkey choose?


Last week Turkish Ministry of Agriculture reminded of the possibility to prohibit grain imports from Russia. This may be a response to Russian ban on vegetables and fruits import from Turkey, which came into effect on January 01, 2016. Moreover, Russia imposed a ban on charter flights and canceled visa-free regime for journalists.

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Turkey will face strong competition on wheat flour market


Turkey holds leading position among world exporters of wheat flour. This year exports from this country may reach a record high of 4 MMT owing to aggressive sales policy. Currently the share of Turkish exporters exceeds 25% of the world wheat flour trade, but the country is likely to face strong competition from the Black Sea region.

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Will Argentinian corn hurt Russian exports?


Since 2010 Russia has been actively increasing corn production. Within this period corn production in the country has grown by more than 300%. Meanwhile, corn exports from Russia have also increased.

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Russia. UkrAgroConsult raised estimate of grain exports


According to Rosstat’s preliminary data, in 2015 grain and legumes production amounted to 104.299 MMT. UkrAgroConsult estimates that net production reached about 103 MMT (excluding the Crimea). Based on this data, we have raised the production estimate in our supply and demand balance. In 2015 grain harvest appeared to be 1% lower than a year before.

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Ukrainian wheat and barley exports. Half year results


In the current season grain exports from Ukraine are higher than last one. Since the beginning of 2015/16 marketing year Ukraine has exported 20 MMT of grain, which is 18% more than during the same period last year.

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Grain production in Russia lower than last year


Shortly before the New Year’s Day Rosstat published preliminary data on gross crop of agricultural crops in Russia in 2015. According to that report, farmers obtained nearly 104.299 MMT of grain and legumes – 1% less than last year (105.315 MMT).

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Bulgaria lost by relying on corn?


After two seasons of record high grain production, this year Bulgaria has significantly lost ground as grain producer and exporter due to various factors. First and foremost amongst them – the weather factor.

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Will Ukraine have time to realize its export potential?


The reduction of crude oil prices to the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008 was the main news of last week.

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