Sych Maryna – grain market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult ".
She is specializing in the study of the major trends in the grain market of Ukraine and Black Sea countries.
Education – Higher, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Masters in “Finance and Credit” (2012)
Ukraine regaining its “pea” position
Last year’s trend toward restoration of Ukraine’s pea planted acreage is gaining pace in 2017 as well. Growers have calculated this crop’s increasing margin in the country and decided to expand its portion in their crop rotations.
Russia – Turkey: an apple of discord
The breaking news of the last week was another exacerbation of the Russian – Turkish trading relations.
On March 15, Turkey suspended the issuance of licenses for duty-free wheat and corn deliveries from some EU countries and Russia. This decision also applies to sunmeal and vegoil supplies from Russia.
Ukraine managed to open new markets in view of shrinking deliveries to the EU
Although a few months are still left until the end of the current season, Ukraine has already realized three-fourths of its grain export potential of MY 2016/17, UkrAgroConsult notes.
Is Japan an unattainable goal for the Black Sea region?
Information has surfaced this week that Japan had unsealed its strategic corn reserves.
Back in mid-February Japanese compound feed producers reported a decrease in corn inventories to a critically low level. And last week Japan’s Ag Ministry permitted millers to use emergency corn reserves because operational stocks appeared at a critical level due to delayed supplies from the U.S. – the top supplier of this cereal crop to the Japanese market. The U.S. Pacific ports stopped shipping export grain cargoes in the middle of February due to sharp weather deterioration.
Kazakh “records” were overestimated
The Agriculture Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported the results of the 2016 harvest campaign. The statistics update appeared to be not so impressive as suggested by promising figures obtained during the grain harvest in the country.
Russia. 2017/18 outlook
Russia’s Ag Ministry forecasts the country’s 2017 total seed acreage at over 80 Ml ha for the first time in 15 years. It is to reach 80.1 Ml ha, up 600 Th ha from 2016.
Bulgaria expanding markets for its wheat
The year of 2016 was successful for Bulgarian wheat. The nation got the highest yield and reached a record total wheat crop that was up 16% from 2015.
Record grain exports from Russia: to be or not to be?
Last week’s most important news included another adjustment in the Russian Ag Ministry’s forecast for 2016/17 grain exports from the country, UkrAgroConsult notes.
Iran replacing China as a market for Ukrainian corn exports
For Ukrainian corn, the season 2016/17 features primarily growth of competition in the world market due to substantially increased export availabilities of corn in Ukraine and major global growers such as the USA, Argentina and Brazil.
India became the top importer of Ukrainian wheat
The current season 2016/17 started in Ukraine with a record fast pace of grain exports, including wheat deliveries. At the same time, UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukrainian wheat export availabilities will shrink by 7-8% in 2016/17 from the previous season in view of some crop decrease.
Arab world prefer Ukrainian barley
Ukraine’s 2016 barley harvest was the richest in seven years at 9.5 MMT. UkrAgroConsult forecasts 2016/17 export potential of Ukrainian barley at some 5.3 MMT, or up 20% from a year ago.
Russian wheat exports up from last year
At last, in the fifth month of the current season, Russian wheat exports outpaced last year’s shipments. Russia exported 2851.6 KMT of wheat in November 2016 that is 46% more than 1955.6 KMT in November 2015. This jump in November’s exports results from expanding high-quality wheat supply in the domestic market and enabled exporters to somewhat catch up.
Russia becoming another rival in the world corn market
Russia will get a bumper corn crop in 2016/17. Growers harvested over 15 MMT by December 16. More than 10% of corn is still left in the fields, but harvesting is going on, though at a slow pace.
Russia. Paradox in the barley market
As UkrAgroConsult wrote before, the pace of Russian grain exports in 2016/17 falls short of market expectations. And most questions among market participants are raised by the current situation with barley.
Bulgaria reducing barley sown acreage in favor of rapeseed
Bulgaria’s fall planting has come to its final stage. The country experienced contradictory weather conditions in the course of this work, reports UkrAgroConsult. On the one hand, abundant October precipitation replenished soil moisture and produced a beneficial effect on growth of already sown winter crops. On the other hand, this precipitation stopped planting in most of the country’s regions.
Russian wheat coming to Ukraine’s export markets
Potentially, Russian wheat supplies to the global market can hit a new high this season. In fact, the pace of exports is far from record fast, reports UkrAgroConsult. Russian exporters shipped abroad about 10.4 MMT of wheat in July-October 2016/17, or 1.5% less than at the same time last season. However, this article will dwell on another trend: growth of coarse wheat shipments and declining exports of high-protein wheat.
Ukraine. Social foods prices are hovering
In September 2016, strong public interest was aroused by the Cabinet’s decision to cancel state regulation of prices and mark-ups for socially sensitive goods, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Ukrainian corn market awaiting price surge
Most of market participants are currently focused on corn, reports UkrAgroConsult. But various complications, both for producers and traders emerged in the domestic market with the start of corn season.
Black Sea region: high production – low quality?
This season wheat quality issues are particularly acute. UkrAgroConsult constantly follows the situation in all countries of the region and continues to publish analytical materials on the question.
Black Sea region – world largest wheat supplier
In the current season the Black Sea region has become the key player in the world wheat market by achieving record high productivity during the 2016 harvesting campaign. No doubt, in the 2016/17 marketing year the region will confirm the leadership as world largest wheat supplier, reports UkrAgroConsult. But will the key countries of the region sell as much grain, and particularly wheat, as expected by the market?
Russia opens new markets to sell all-time high grain crop
While Russian farmers are finishing grain crop harvesting, Russian authorities are actively looking for an answer to the main question of the current season – to whom sell the grain?
Bulgarian corn less attractive to farmers
During the second consecutive season Bulgaria loses ground in corn market. While Ukraine, Russia and Romania increase corn production, Bulgarian farmers might have decided not to enter this competition.
Grain exports from Kazakhstan to reach five-year high
Harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan is coming to its end. Kazakh farmers gathered 22 MMT of grain from 95% of the intended area owing to high productivity, reports UkrAgroConsult. Average grain yields in the country surpassed the last year’s level by 25%. As expected, this season Kazakhstan will obtain record high grain crop over the last five years.
Corn exports from Russia may hit record
Corn harvesting in Russia is gaining pace. This grain harvest has been gathered from about 20% of the intended area, but it is already clear now that Russian corn production will be record high.
Russia loses ground in Saudi Arabia
Barley harvesting in Russia entered the final straight. More than 18.2 MMT of barley were collected from about 93% of acreage, which already exceeds last year’s harvest. According to UkrAgroConsult, this year Russia will obtain 9% more barley than a year before.
Indian market opens to Ukrainian wheat
In the 2016/17 season India will become wheat net importer for the first time in six years. In the current season USDA estimates wheat production in India at the lowest level since the 2012/13 marketing year. Moreover, over the past five seasons domestic wheat consumption in the country has increased by 10 MMT (by 4.5 MMT since the last season).
Kazakhstan - Russia: struggle for Iranian market
The 2015/16 grain season is coming to an end in Kazakhstan (September 2015-August 2016). High exports of basic grain crops and flour, as UkrAgroConsult already mentioned in the previous article “Black Sea flour conquers world" was the main feature of the 2015/16 marketing year in Kazakhstan, as well as in Ukraine and in Russia. However, in case of Kazakhstan, grain shipments did not reach all-time high, but still became the highest since 2011/12.
Black Sea flour conquers world
The 2015/16 season was remarkable for Black Sea region not only owing to grain, but also its processed products records. First of all, we are talking about flour.
Russia. Wheat production is likely to surpass all expectations
The beginning of 2016/17 season was characterized by constantly raised grain production estimates. Revision of harvesting area expectations and record high grain yields were the main drivers of crop estimates increase.
Bulgaria remains one of key wheat suppliers in EU
Wheat and barley harvesting is almost complete in Bulgaria, and corn harvesting is approaching. Let's consider prospects for Bulgarian grain in the 2016/17 season and the main results of the 2015/16 marketing year.
Ukraine to glut Asia with peas
Peas harvesting is nearly over in Ukraine. Its results pleased both produsers and UkrAgroConsult. As we already wrote in the previous article about Ukrainian peas - "Ukrainian peas – opening of season 2016/17", this year in Ukraine peas acreage exceeded last year’s area by 33% and reached five-year high. And not only favorable weather during sowing contributed to this.
Wheat heat production decrease in EU – chance for Black Sea suppliers
EU's wheat is currently one of the most discussed issues in global agricultural community. The entire agricultural world follows news from French fields, which have suffered from excessive rainfalls this year. Let’s try to understand the current situation, namely market expectations for wheat production in the EU, particularly in France and prospects for Black Sea wheat in the 2016/17 season.
Russian record high wheat harvest brings pressure to market
In 2016 analysts revise upwards wheat production estimates in Russia almost every day. Favorable agro-climatic conditions during vegetation and grain ripening periods, as well as expansion of acreage during spring sowing appeared to be the main reasons for that.
Black Sea region becomes top world supplier of grain
The 2015/16 season is almost complete. Summarizing the results of this season, UkrAgroConsult emphasizes record high exports from the key Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan).
Ukraine to supply EU with sorghum
After significant reduction of sorghum acreage in Ukraine in recent years, in 2016 grain producers have decided to somewhat restore the planted area. Ukrainian farmers have already sown sorghum at 75 Th ha of intended 83 Th ha, which is 41% more than last year.
Ukraine. Agiotage in buckwheat groats market
Buckwheat groats prices continue to grow in Ukraine. Currently retail prices in Ukraine sometimes reach UAH 50/kg. UkrAgroConsult has already mentioned before that price growth was mainly triggered by abysmal low buckwheat harvest in the country over the last five years.
Bulgarian wheat. New season prospects
In the 2016/17 season Bulgarian farmers decided to expand wheat planted area after reduction during the last three years. According to official data of the Agriculture Ministry, in 2015 winter wheat was sown at 1130 Th ha, which was 8% more than a year before.
Russia outtrades USA and Canada in export wheat market
This season has become a record-breaking for Russian grain market. It is also subject to wheat exports, which may become record high ever. If forecasts come true, Russia will become the largest wheat supplier in the world market, leaving behind such wheat giants as USA and Canada. Only European Union may offer more wheat in the market. Wheat exports from the EU may reach 32 MMT this season.
Russia to strengthen positions in Arab barley markets
Next season barley production in Russia will increase, despite reduction of acreage. UkrAgroConsult estimates that barley production will rise by 2-3% (17.8 MMT compared to 17.4 MMT in 2015/16). Favorable weather conditions in winter and spring contribute to production growth.
Ukrainian peas – sensation of season 2016/17
This season spring sowing campaign in Ukraine may be characterized by significant expansion of peas acreage. Initial forecast equaled 182 Th ha, but Ukrainian farmers have managed to sow 226 Th ha. This is 33% more than last year. This is a record high peas planted area in Ukraine over the last five years.
Russia to provide all neighboring countries with buckwheat
Before early 2000s buckwheat acreage in Russia was nearly 1.5-1.8 Ml ha. Since 2001 buckwheat planted area has decreased considerably – by almost 50% to 0.8-0.9 Ml ha. During this period a gradual reduction of spring crops acreage in favor of winter crops, mainly wheat, was observed in Russia.
Black Sea countries become the largest world exporters of wheat bran
Following wheat flour, wheat bran becomes another promising export commodity for the Black Sea countries. In common with other grain crops and oilseeds, currency devaluation in the region stimulated exports of all commodities surplus including wheat bran. Abstracting from the worsening of economic situation in Ukraine, it is worth noting that exports have been persistently growing since the 2012/13 season.
Next 2016/17 season will become a turning point for Kazakh wheat
According to preliminary estimates of the Agriculture Ministry of Kazakhstan, grain planted area will increase by more than 200 Th ha in 2016, due to reduction of oilseeds acreage.
Russia. Wheat production will decrease in season 2016/17
Taking into account spring wheat acreage estimates of Russian Ministry of Agriculture, and planted are of winter wheat, UkrAgroConsult expects a reduction of wheat production by 2.6% in the 2016/17 season.
Russia heads towards record high corn exports
Current season in Russia is characterized by record high exports of agricultural crops. Devaluation of Russian ruble stimulated shipments from Russian Federation significantly. Corn is one of those crops, exports of which have already reached one of the highest levels this season. Record high production in 2015 allowed increasing exports considerably.
Rice or buckwheat: Russia's choice
As in Ukraine, groats production in Russia declined in 2015. Summarizing the results of 2015, production of groats in Russia reached 1424.9 KMT. This is 6% less than a year before. In 2016 the trend of further production decrease continued. In January-February Russia produced 7% less groats than during the same time last year (219.9 KMT compared with 236.7 KMT).
Pea wars: Russia vs USA
Russia is the second largest global producer of peas after Canada, although the share of peas in Russian total grain and legumes production is no more than 2%. However, over the last five years Russia has managed to become the world's second largest exporter of peas, leaving behind such world's major suppliers as the USA, France and Australia.
Ukraine and Russia leave Bulgarian corn no chance for success
The current season appeared to be quite difficult for Bulgarian grain market. The lowest wheat and corn production for the last three seasons alongside with growing world production has had a negative impact on grain exports from Bulgaria. Grain production declined by 17% this season.
What will Russia sow? Wheat or corn?
Last week Russian Ministry of Agriculture published its acreage forecast for 2016. As earlier, attention was attracted to corn. The Ministry estimates that corn planted area will be expanded by 7.1%, which is almost 200 Th ha.
Kazakhstan. Grain supply and demand, February 2016
UkrAgroConsult raised the estimate of grain and legumes production in Kazakhstan after the State Statistics Service published updated information on 2015 harvesting.
Saudi barley market– fight arena for Russian and Ukrainian traders
At the end of the first half of 2015/16 MY we can sum up that barley export season has almost come to a close in the Black sea region. Currently export capacity of the region is 87% fulfilled. Over this period Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and also Bulgaria exported about 8 MMT which is approximately 30% of the world exports.
Russia or Kazakhstan – which wheat supplier will Turkey choose?
Last week Turkish Ministry of Agriculture reminded of the possibility to prohibit grain imports from Russia. This may be a response to Russian ban on vegetables and fruits import from Turkey, which came into effect on January 01, 2016. Moreover, Russia imposed a ban on charter flights and canceled visa-free regime for journalists.
Turkey will face strong competition on wheat flour market
Turkey holds leading position among world exporters of wheat flour. This year exports from this country may reach a record high of 4 MMT owing to aggressive sales policy. Currently the share of Turkish exporters exceeds 25% of the world wheat flour trade, but the country is likely to face strong competition from the Black Sea region.
Will Argentinian corn hurt Russian exports?
Since 2010 Russia has been actively increasing corn production. Within this period corn production in the country has grown by more than 300%. Meanwhile, corn exports from Russia have also increased.
Russia. UkrAgroConsult raised estimate of grain exports
According to Rosstat’s preliminary data, in 2015 grain and legumes production amounted to 104.299 MMT. UkrAgroConsult estimates that net production reached about 103 MMT (excluding the Crimea). Based on this data, we have raised the production estimate in our supply and demand balance. In 2015 grain harvest appeared to be 1% lower than a year before.
Ukrainian wheat and barley exports. Half year results
In the current season grain exports from Ukraine are higher than last one. Since the beginning of 2015/16 marketing year Ukraine has exported 20 MMT of grain, which is 18% more than during the same period last year.
Grain production in Russia lower than last year
Shortly before the New Year’s Day Rosstat published preliminary data on gross crop of agricultural crops in Russia in 2015. According to that report, farmers obtained nearly 104.299 MMT of grain and legumes – 1% less than last year (105.315 MMT).
Bulgaria lost by relying on corn?
After two seasons of record high grain production, this year Bulgaria has significantly lost ground as grain producer and exporter due to various factors. First and foremost amongst them – the weather factor.
Will Ukraine have time to realize its export potential?
The reduction of crude oil prices to the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008 was the main news of last week.