Olena Hesova – grain and oilseed market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult".Specializes in the study of the major trends in the world grain and oilseed markets as well as in the grain market of Romania.
Will French wheat lose for a second season in a row?
According to the European Commission’s estimates, EU countries will ship 8.7 MMT less wheat to third countries for the whole current season than a year ago: about 24 MMT against 32.7 MMT in MY 2015/16. This drop will be accounted for mostly by lower exports from France. At the same time, other exporting EU countries, including Romania, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, managed to supply additional volumes to their key markets, France’s markets, and open up new vistas for themselves. It is worth noting that the Black Sea countries have also succeeded in increasing their presence in the EU market.
South America and its new corn crop: a price apocalypse is coming!
The current corn export season has both benefits and drawbacks for Ukraine. So, for instance, exports to the EU are somewhat slower than last year, but Ukrainian traders are gaining ground in other markets, such as Egypt, South Korea, Iran and South Africa. They manage to realize Ukraine’s high export potential due to easing competition from Brazil in the first half of 2016/17 in view of shrinking Brazilian inventories of 2016-crop, UkrAgroConsult notes.
Ukraine regaining its position in the European soybean market
According to USDA estimates, the EU will reduce soybean imports by 8% in 2016/17 against the previous season, to 13.8 MMT, in view of sufficient soybean carryovers and a hike in own soybean production in the EU.
Romania: wheat crop and export prospects for 2017/18 season
Romanian wheat exports are to hit a record high this season. According to UkrAgroConsult data, Romania exported 4537 KMT of wheat in MY 2016/17 (July-December), or twice as much as at the same time last season. In the period under review, shipments increased to almost all key destinations because of a competitive price of Romanian offers in the world market.
Romania: are rapeseed production and exports to hit another high in 2017/18?
The European Commission estimates that the 2017/18 season will be more successful for the EU in respect of rapeseed production. The European rapeseed harvest may rise to 22.13 MMT (20 MMT in 2016/17) owing to favorable weather conditions in the top producing countries along with an expansion of this crop’s planted area to 6620 Th ha (6493 Th ha this season).
Ukraine and the Iranian corn market: entry is free until June
Following the lifting of sanctions in January 2016, Iran resumed production of crude oil that facilitated the country’s economic growth and the build-up of export revenues. This resulted in the restoration of Iran’s agricultural sector, car manufacturing, foreign trade and transport system throughout 2016. The growing of some crops, in particular wheat, corn, and barley is subsidized by the government in the form of guaranteed prices for which it buys these crops for state reserves.
Ukraine leaves Asian wheat markets
According to February estimates of Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), wheat production is estimated to have exceeded the record forecast in the December report. Farmers have gathered 11 MMT more wheat (35.1 MMT, or +45% y/y) than in 2015/16 and have essential export surplus. Given the fact that key wheat export markets of Australia lay in the domain of Asia, Black sea countries, especially Ukraine, as well as USA and Argentina are currently focused on export success of Australian traders.
EU: is interest in Ukrainian corn declining?
The top buyers of Ukrainian corn – EU countries – substantially slowed down its imports in the first half of the current season compared with 2015/16. According to February’s estimates made by the European Commission, this season’s corn imports to the EU must exceed last year’s volumes and total 13.7 MMT against 13.3 MMT in 2015/16. Some top importers in the EU are really boosting purchases of this commodity, but… not from Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult notes.
Ukrainian sunseed meal ousting soybean meal in Pakistan’s market
Gradual economic growth (+4.6% in 2016) is under way in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populated country (196 Ml people in 2016). Consequently, incomes of its population in is on the rise, too. This fuels a steady increase in demand for animal and dairy products in the country. At the same time, the Pakistani agricultural sector is unable to completely provide the required volume of feed components because of climate peculiarities.
Ukraine ousting the EU from North African barley markets
In the first half of the 2016/17 season, world barley trade volumes lagged behind the previous two seasons in view of shrinking demand from top buyers. Major exporters reduced export barley supplies by 21%.
Persian Gulf countries – growing export market for Black Sea and EU grains
Countries of Persian Gulf are catching the eye of major grain exporters as gradual depletion of water reserves and highly vulnerable productive land make these countries more dependent on imports of cereals. Thus, the largest representative of the region - Saudi Arabia is getting attractiveness for corn exporters due to lack of government subsidies for all water intensive crops. Instead, government provides financial subsidies for imported corn to poultry and dairy producers. Due to higher corn imports available, in 2017 domestic broiler production is expected to increase by 4.5% to 700 KMT (+4% in 2016).
Ukraine outstripping EU countries in the barley export market
According to USDA forecasts, this season’s global barley trade volume will amount to 26.7 MMT, or less than in the previous two seasons. Compared with last season’s record, the export shipments will lower rather noticeably, on average by 12%. However, taking into consideration the pace of world barley exports in the first five months of the season, this decrease may appear even more substantial, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Grain market: another season of record stocks and low prices – who is to blame?
Grain oversupply has been observed in the global market over the last four seasons, leading to growth of grain carryovers. Respective annual price drops with consequent reduction of market participants’ profits as a natural response of the market, UkrAgroConsult notes. At the same time, despite the long term period of low prices and attempts of some market players to decrease plantings of the least profitable crops, season 2016/17 was also marked with their bumper production. What or who prevents restoration of the world market balance, Olena Hesona, grain market analyst of UkrAgroConsult, notes?
Ukraine squeezing out competitors in the Asian wheat market
According to USDA estimates, global wheat exports will increase 4.34 MMT in 2016/17 season, to a volume of 176.83 MMT. Taking into account that the current pace of world wheat exports is indeed faster than last year and wheat price is at a multi-year low, this forecast is quite realistic. The IGC reports that overall exports from major wheat supplier countries totaled 54.33 MMT in the first four months of 2016/17 season (July-October) that is up 4.45 MMT from last season. At the same time, the key sellers continue competing in outlet markets of Asia, Africa and the Near East
European wheat consolidating its grasp on Asian markets
The season of 2016/17 was marked by another rich total harvest of wheat in many of major wheat exporting countries (the harvest even hit a record high in some of them). The exception is the EU, which harvested 16 MMT less wheat (144 MMT) than last year’s bumper crop, according to the USDA.
EU corn market: competition is getting strong and more to come
Season 2016/17 was marked with second in a row low corn crop in top-producing EU countries – France, Romania, Italy and Spain. According to European Commission`s estimates, EU corn crop totaled 59.073 MMT in 2016/17, almost in line with last year volume - 59.066 MMT at the expense of higher production in other top producers and in EU countries, which predominantly import corn.
Ukraine versus Argentina and Brazil on the corn export market
In 2015/16, corn exports from Ukraine were down 11.4% year-on-year, at 16.76 MMT. The corn harvest decrease was the main factor that slashed deliveries to all the key destinations except for the EU – on the contrary, Ukraine managed to boost exports to Europe by 44.4% to 8484 KMT.
Romania increases poultry meat exports due to high soybean meal imports
After entering EU in 2007 Romanian animal-breeding sector encountered various problems, including tough competition on the domestic EU market between producers of high-quality and reasonably priced meat, as well as with the necessity to reorganize their own production in accordance with the new EU standards.
Black Sea region ousts EU and USA from the traditional wheat markets
Second season in a row Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan exported record high volume of wheat, leaving behind such top-exporters as USA and EU countries, informs UkrAgroConsult.
Argentina returns: sunflower oil exports to Asia are on the rise
According to the Agriculture Ministry, wheat planted area for the 2017 crop will remain at the previous year's level – 6198 Th ha, reports UkrAgroConsult. As a reminder, last year winter wheat acreage was significantly smaller than many-year average, which is nearly 6700 Th ha.