Olena Hesova

Olena GesovaOlena Hesovagrain and oilseed market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult".

Specializes in the study of the major trends in the world grain and oilseed markets as well as in the grain market of Romania.

 

 


 

Analyst's publications:


 

Romania is the top EU rapeseed exporter in 2016/17

08.11.2017

Following the 2017/18 harvest results, the European Commission upwardly revised EU rape plantings against its preliminary estimates published in the spring. October’s estimate equals 6780 Th ha against 6620 Th ha expected in April 2017 (up 4% from the five-year average). Only the 2010/11 season witnessed a larger area (7000 Th ha). 

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Romania becomes a visible player among EU exporters of peas to the third countries

31.10.2017

Over 2014-2017 sowing area of peas in EU grew up almost twice as a result of the new agreement on Common agricultural policy (CAP), which in particular fosters higher production of nitrogen-fixing crops and support of the protein crop sector. Those crops, which include dry pulses, protect the soil from erosion and improve soil organic matter.

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EU is ready to buy large volume of Ukrainian corn

18.10.2017

According to the USDA estimates, in 2016/17 MY world corn importers decreased purchases by 2% against the previous season - to 137.1 MMT, despite the record world corn production.

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Romania – top EU exporter of barley to third countries at start of 2017/18

11.10.2017

Romania becomes more and more important player on the grain market of EU. Last season the country was highly successful becoming the top wheat exporter to the third countries among other EU exporters, going neck and neck with Germany closer to the end of 2016/17 MY.  At the beginning of the current season the situation seems highly favorable for barley shipments.

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Ukraine may increase barley plantings

26.09.2017

According to the USDA estimates, the global crop of barley will be below its global consumption for a second season in a row. This trend will lead to a substantial decrease in barley stocks in the world. Global barley inventories are expected to shrink to a 34-year low of 18.6 MMT by the end of MY 2017/18.

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Romania. Higher average yield of grain crops compensates for gradual decrease in sowing area

20.09.2017

Second season in a row Romania decreases grain crop sowing area in favor of oilseeds.

Compared to last season, grain crop sowing area (wheat, barley and corn) decreased from 5067 Th ha to 5032 Th ha. Still, due to improvement in growing technologies, average productivity of grain crops continues to go up and compensate for lower sowing area.

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Europe needs Ukrainian corn

23.08.2017

According to estimates made by the European Commission, EU countries reduced corn plantings for the 2017 harvest by 1.4% to 8460 Th ha. This trend has already been observed for a few consecutive seasons not only due to yield-raising improvement of growing practices, but also owing to the weather factor.

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What is pushing wheat up?

13.07.2017

The first week of the new marketing year 2017/18 sprang price surprises on agri market participants. July wheat futures in Chicago closed Thursday at 519 cents/bushel, up 21% month-over-month. Its increase over last year is already almost 9%.

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Romania: lower sowing area will not allow gathering record high crop

05.07.2017

UkrAgroConsult increased slightly its estimate of Romanian wheat yield in 2017/18 MY, which is now almost in line with record high productivity, achieved last season (4.05 MT/ha).

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Bangladesh, Egypt waiting for Black Sea wheat

27.06.2017

The USDA estimates that this season’s global wheat exports will reach another record of 180.3 MMT (up 4.3% year-on-year) in view of bumper harvests in many top-exporter countries and low world prices.

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Promising markets for Ukrainian corn

20.06.2017

In 2016/17, corn exports from Ukraine are forecasted to be up 14.3% year-on-year, at 19 MMT. Over September-April Ukraine exported 15.53 MMT of corn, which is 1.27 MMT more than over the same period last season.

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Barley market is tightest in 34 years!

07.06.2017

The global downward trends in grain prices have affected barley significantly. This season’s barley prices were at a six-year low, UkrAgroConsult reports.

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Romanian barley S&D balance, 2017/18 season

24.05.2017

According to UkrAgroConsult, in the 2017/18 season, Romanian barley crop is expected to decrease by 13% to 1670 KMT compared to record volume, obtained in 2016/17 – 1920 KMT. During the autumn sowing campaign in 2016 farmers did not manage to sow barley in the optimal terms due to the soil drought and early snow falls. Moreover, many farmers preferred to expand area in favor of more profitable rapeseed. Thus, barley planted area declined on average 9% to 462 Th ha y/y.

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Romania. Corn S&D balance, April 2017

10.05.2017

According to preliminary estimates of Romania’s Ag Ministry, farmers in the country expanded corn planted area for the 2017 harvest to 2620 Th ha because of a shortfall in last year’s fall planting. As of today, planting has been completed almost all over the country in good weather conditions.

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Will French wheat lose for a second season in a row?

25.04.2017

According to the European Commission’s estimates, EU countries will ship 8.7 MMT less wheat to third countries for the whole current season than a year ago: about 24 MMT against 32.7 MMT in MY 2015/16. This drop will be accounted for mostly by lower exports from France. At the same time, other exporting EU countries, including Romania, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, managed to supply additional volumes to their key markets, France’s markets, and open up new vistas for themselves. It is worth noting that the Black Sea countries have also succeeded in increasing their presence in the EU market.

Full article

South America and its new corn crop: a price apocalypse is coming!

20.04.2017

The current corn export season has both benefits and drawbacks for Ukraine. So, for instance, exports to the EU are somewhat slower than last year, but Ukrainian traders are gaining ground in other markets, such as Egypt, South Korea, Iran and South Africa. They manage to realize Ukraine’s high export potential due to easing competition from Brazil in the first half of 2016/17 in view of shrinking Brazilian inventories of 2016-crop, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Ukraine regaining its position in the European soybean market

04.04.2017

According to USDA estimates, the EU will reduce soybean imports by 8% in 2016/17 against the previous season, to 13.8 MMT, in view of sufficient soybean carryovers and a hike in own soybean production in the EU.

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Romania: wheat crop and export prospects for 2017/18 season

28.03.2017

Romanian wheat exports are to hit a record high this season. According to UkrAgroConsult data, Romania exported 4537 KMT of wheat in MY 2016/17 (July-December), or twice as much as at the same time last season.  In the period under review, shipments increased to almost all key destinations because of a competitive price of Romanian offers in the world market.

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Romania: are rapeseed production and exports to hit another high in 2017/18?

21.03.2017

The European Commission estimates that the 2017/18 season will be more successful for the EU in respect of rapeseed production. The European rapeseed harvest may rise to 22.13 MMT (20 MMT in 2016/17) owing to favorable weather conditions in the top producing countries along with an expansion of this crop’s planted area to 6620 Th ha (6493 Th ha this season).

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Ukraine and the Iranian corn market: entry is free until June

14.03.2017

Following the lifting of sanctions in January 2016, Iran resumed production of crude oil that facilitated the country’s economic growth and the build-up of export revenues. This resulted in the restoration of Iran’s agricultural sector, car manufacturing, foreign trade and transport system throughout 2016. The growing of some crops, in particular wheat, corn, and barley is subsidized by the government in the form of guaranteed prices for which it buys these crops for state reserves.

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Ukraine leaves Asian wheat markets

07.03.2017

According to February estimates of Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), wheat production is estimated to have exceeded the record forecast in the December report.  Farmers have gathered 11 MMT more wheat (35.1 MMT, or +45% y/y) than in 2015/16 and have essential export surplus. Given the fact that key wheat export markets of Australia lay in the domain of Asia, Black sea countries, especially Ukraine, as well as USA and Argentina are currently focused on export success of Australian traders.

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EU: is interest in Ukrainian corn declining?

28.02.2017

The top buyers of Ukrainian corn – EU countries – substantially slowed down its imports in the first half of the current season compared with 2015/16. According to February’s estimates made by the European Commission, this season’s corn imports to the EU must exceed last year’s volumes and total 13.7 MMT against 13.3 MMT in 2015/16. Some top importers in the EU are really boosting purchases of this commodity, but… not from Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult notes.

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Ukrainian sunseed meal ousting soybean meal in Pakistan’s market

21.02.2017

Gradual economic growth (+4.6% in 2016) is under way in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populated country (196 Ml people in 2016). Consequently, incomes of its population in is on the rise, too. This fuels a steady increase in demand for animal and dairy products in the country. At the same time, the Pakistani agricultural sector is unable to completely provide the required volume of feed components because of climate peculiarities.

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Ukraine ousting the EU from North African barley markets

21.02.2017

In the first half of the 2016/17 season, world barley trade volumes lagged behind the previous two seasons in view of shrinking demand from top buyers. Major exporters reduced export barley supplies by 21%.

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Persian Gulf countries – growing export market for Black Sea and EU grains

08.02.2017

Countries of Persian Gulf are catching the eye of major grain exporters as gradual depletion of water reserves and highly vulnerable productive land make these countries more dependent on imports of cereals. Thus, the largest representative of the region - Saudi Arabia is getting attractiveness for corn exporters due to lack of government subsidies for all water intensive crops. Instead, government provides financial subsidies for imported corn to poultry and dairy producers. Due to higher corn imports available, in 2017 domestic broiler production is expected to increase by 4.5% to 700 KMT (+4% in 2016).

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Ukraine outstripping EU countries in the barley export market

02.02.2017

According to USDA forecasts, this season’s global barley trade volume will amount to 26.7 MMT, or less than in the previous two seasons. Compared with last season’s record, the export shipments will lower rather noticeably, on average by 12%. However, taking into consideration the pace of world barley exports in the first five months of the season, this decrease may appear even more substantial, reports UkrAgroConsult.

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Grain market: another season of record stocks and low prices – who is to blame?

25.01.2017

Grain oversupply has been observed in the global market over the last four seasons, leading to growth of grain carryovers. Respective annual price drops with consequent reduction of market participants’ profits as a natural response of the market, UkrAgroConsult notes. At the same time, despite the long term period of low prices and attempts of some market players to decrease plantings of the least profitable crops, season 2016/17 was also marked with their bumper production. What or who prevents restoration of the world market balance, Olena Hesona, grain market analyst of UkrAgroConsult, notes?

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Ukraine squeezing out competitors in the Asian wheat market

27.12.2016

According to USDA estimates, global wheat exports will increase 4.34 MMT in 2016/17 season, to a volume of 176.83 MMT. Taking into account that the current pace of world wheat exports is indeed faster than last year and wheat price is at a multi-year low, this forecast is quite realistic. The IGC reports that overall exports from major wheat supplier countries totaled 54.33 MMT in the first four months of 2016/17 season (July-October) that is up 4.45 MMT from last season. At the same time, the key sellers continue competing in outlet markets of Asia, Africa and the Near East

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European wheat consolidating its grasp on Asian markets

20.12.2016

The season of 2016/17 was marked by another rich total harvest of wheat in many of major wheat exporting countries (the harvest even hit a record high in some of them). The exception is the EU, which harvested 16 MMT less wheat (144 MMT) than last year’s bumper crop, according to the USDA.

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EU corn market: competition is getting strong and more to come

13.12.2016

Season 2016/17 was marked with second in a row low corn crop in top-producing EU countries – France, Romania, Italy and Spain. According to European Commission`s estimates, EU corn crop totaled 59.073 MMT in 2016/17, almost in line with last year volume  - 59.066 MMT at the expense of higher production in other top producers and in EU countries, which predominantly import corn.

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Ukraine versus Argentina and Brazil on the corn export market

29.11.2016

In 2015/16, corn exports from Ukraine were down 11.4% year-on-year, at 16.76 MMT. The corn harvest decrease was the main factor that slashed deliveries to all the key destinations except for the EU – on the contrary, Ukraine managed to boost exports to Europe by 44.4% to 8484 KMT.

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Romania increases poultry meat exports due to high soybean meal imports

22.11.2016

After entering EU in 2007 Romanian animal-breeding sector encountered various problems, including    tough competition on the domestic EU market between producers of high-quality and reasonably priced meat, as well as with the necessity  to reorganize their own production in accordance with the new EU standards.

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Black Sea region ousts EU and USA from the traditional wheat markets

26.08.2016

Second season in a row Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan exported record high volume of wheat, leaving behind such top-exporters as USA and EU countries, informs UkrAgroConsult.

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Argentina returns: sunflower oil exports to Asia are on the rise

04.08.2016

According to the Agriculture Ministry, wheat planted area for the 2017 crop will remain at the previous year's level – 6198 Th ha, reports UkrAgroConsult. As a reminder, last year winter wheat acreage was significantly smaller than many-year average, which is nearly 6700 Th ha.

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