Svetlana Kupreeva
Svetlana Kupreeva – expert of oilseed and vegoil market at "UkrAgroConsult " (2016).
Svetlana is specializing in oilseed and vegoil market of Ukraine and Black Sea countries, focusing on S&D balances, price research, monitoring production and foreign trade activity.
Svetlana is an author of UkrAgroConsult’s specialized weekly Newsletter "Black Sea Vegoils & CIS" (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Belarus).
Biography:
Analyst's publications:
Spring-2018 to play into hands of Black Sea sunflower seed producers
Black Sea region is the largest producer of sunflower seed in the world. Now the region's share in the global sunflower seed production is nearly 61%. For comparison, in 2001 this share was only 28%.
Turkey steps up sunseed imports but reduces purchases from Russia
The world’s analysts estimate Turkey’s sunseed crop in the current 2017/18 season at 1.6 MMT. At the same time, the estimate made by Turkish market participants themselves is more conservative (1.45 MMT) but also record high for the country.
Ukraine. Oilseed planting estimates for the new season are controversial as never before
The official forecasts for Ukraine’s oilseed planted acreage differ from estimates made by UkrAgroConsult analysts. While this only concerned sunflower before, in recent years the discrepancy pattern has extended to other crops too, though to a lesser extent. There are weighty factors this year forcing us to revise our initial estimates and, most importantly, they do not rule out further adjustments in the figures.
Livestock sector in Belarus to prevent a reduction of meal imports from Ukraine in 2018/19 season
Belarus managed to harvest 603 KMT of rapeseed in the 2017/18 season. This was not its all-time record, but exceeded the five-year average of 550 KMT by almost 10%. Noteworthy, UkrAgroConsult initially estimated the 2017 rapeseed crop in Belarus at 605-610 KMT.
Egypt may end up without Ukrainian soybeans
Now, soybeans continue to be the most intriguing point for Ukraine. While UkrAgroConsult’s previous articles focused on topical issues of the domestic market and soybean production outlooks for the next 2018/19 season, today we’ll discuss a narrower aspect of trade relations between Ukraine and Egypt.
Kazakhstan. New oilseed 2017/18 season seems to be promising
Last year Kazakhstan announced the start of the implementation of the State Agriculture Development Program for 2017-2021. Its key targets include developing overall crop production, in particular oilseed cultivation as the most promising segment for the country.
Ukraine. Intrigue of new 2018/19 oilseed season
UkrAgroConsult expects 2018/19 oilseed plantings to remain at last year’s level, but certain structural changes will happen in the distribution of planted areas between sunflower, soya and rape.
Ukraine. Soybean margin as a constraining factor in 2018/19 season
The outlook for the next 2018/19 season prompts us to discuss again soybean production profitability, which increased from 1.3% to 52% in 2008-2016, though being unstable.
Ukrainian soybean market: transformation inevitable
Since 2000, soybeans in Ukraine have turned from an outsider into a key oil crop. It continued taking over planting areas from more traditional Ukrainian crops up until the current season 2017/18. So, soybean planted acreage expanded from 65 Th ha in the 2000/01 season to a record 2.2 MMT in the 2015/16 season and stayed at 1.9 Ml ha over the last two seasons. Consequently, the crops increased all the time, pushing up the Ukrainian soybean market’s potential.
Special fats helping out the Ukrainian margarine market
The first months of the past year 2017 featured positive dynamics for Ukrainian margarine producers and optimistic forecasts for the whole calendar year – UkrAgroConsult wrote about this before. Below we’ll discuss the year’s results and what underpins the turn for the better in the margarine market.
Ukraine’s rapeseed market looking to the new season with optimism
Rapeseed is now becoming once again a topical subject for the oilseed sector of agriculture. Remarkably, this involves not only forecasts for the next season 2018/19, but also expectations about the results of the current marketing year.
Turkey continues reducing sunseed imports
In Turkey, the current marketing year features a bumper sunseed crop of 1.6 MMT. UkrAgroConsult has already addressed the topic of 2017/18 forecasts for this country and its prospective trading relations with Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine. Oilseed crop in 2018/19 season
In Ukraine, the close of 2017 featured the adoption of an important and, it’s safe to say, momentous decision for the entire oilseed sector of the country’s agriculture. In January, there came into force a law of Ukraine postponing the cancellation of budgetary VAT refunds for rapeseed exports till January 1, 2020 and those for soybean exports till September 1, 2018. At the same time, the cancellation of VAT refunds for sunseed exports comes into force from March 1, 2018. This measure was dictated by the need to adapt all market participants to the new conditions.
Mustard market in Ukraine: growth of oilseed crushing and finished product exports despite a crop decrease
Mustard, being a niche crop in Ukraine, accounts for less than 1% of oilseed plantings. According to official information, roughly 41 Th ha was seeded to this crop for the 2017 harvest (down 9.5% year-on-year). Its planted acreage has been shrinking for a third season in a row from the 2014 high of 105 Th ha, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Long-term prospects for rapeseed production in Bulgaria are doubtful
In the current 2017/18 season, a rape acreage decrease (-8.5%) and a yield drop (-4%) in Bulgaria have slashed its rapeseed crop by almost 10%. As the bulk of Bulgarian rapeseed comes to the export market in the first months of season, over 97% of its 2017/18 exportable stocks were shipped abroad by mid-December. Bulgarian rapeseed still enjoys keen demand from European countries.
Oilseed plantings in Ukraine: what the “VAT games” will lead to
The current 2017/18 season is in full swing, but the question of prospects for Ukrainian agricultural producers in the new marketing year arises increasingly often. The cropping pattern for the future harvest becomes a hot-button topic not only for market participants, but also for the media environment. Traditionally, UkrAgroConsult presents its estimates and the first tentative figures for the 2018 planting season as a stocking-stuffer gift.
Ukraine will double rapeseed exports this season
As expected, the current 2017/18 season witnesses brisk export trade in the Ukrainian rapeseed market and growth of domestic crushing against last season.
Ukraine. Sunoil exports under Indian import duty
Last week’s main news in the oilseed segment of the information space was a reported increase in import duties on vegoils adopted by their key global consumer – India – even though this was a previously expected step.
Bulgaria puts stake on sunseed crushing
The Bulgarian sunseed crop increased to 1.8 MMT in the 2016/17 season (up 7.5% year-on-year). As a reminder, the reasons included an expansion of sunflower plantings (up 0.6% year-on-year) and a higher yield (up 6.6%).
Ukraine. Breakdown of winter crop plantings
The planting of winter crops in Ukraine is drawing to an end, and it is the right time now to assess the breakdown of crop plantings.
Ukraine increasingly focused on the bottled sunoil market
Prior to 2007, Ukraine’s packed sunoil market featured an upward trend in production volumes. A record 385 KMT of sunoil was manufactured in 2007. The rise in output of the bottled product stemmed from intensifying exports along with rapidly strengthening demand from Ukrainian consumers. However, the market trend reversed in the 2008/09 season, when sunoil bottling started to gradually shrink in MY 2016/17.
Turkey decreasing its import dependence in the oilseed and vegoil market
Turkey is a key player in the Black Sea market of sunseed and its products. In its pursuit to reduce the dependence not only on feedstock imports, but also on foreign sunmeal and sunoil, the country draws attention of both major Black Sea exporters (Russia and Ukraine) and minor ones (Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania).
Ukraine. Growth of sunoil prices inevitable due to a crop shortfall
Sunseed requires close attention of all market participants in the new 2017/18 season. The question about the sunflower acreage size traditionally arose back in the spring during the planting season. As ever, analysts had to add to official data in their estimates. So, the statistical authorities reported 5.943 Ml ha seeded to sunflower in 2017. UkrAgroConsult estimates that, contrary to initial forecasts, sunflower planted acreage was not reduced – it remained at last year’s level of 6.4 Ml ha.
Ukraine – China: will there be a new end market for sunmeal?
Last week, the Agriculture Ministry and the AQSIQ (General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China) signed protocols of sanitary and phytosanitary requirements with regard to sunflower meal and beet cake exports from Ukraine to China. This news did not go unnoticed: part of market players met it with optimism, while others expressed some doubt.
Ukrainian sunoil: a national brand would have future
The sunseed and sunseed product market in Ukraine and other Black Sea countries has closed the 2016/17 season with record figures. Owing to the largest ever crop of 15 MMT (UkrAgroConsult’s estimate), many indicators – from crushing to exports – hit all-time highs throughout the marketing year.
Kazakhstan oilseeds: the first steps towards implementing the agriculture development program
In the coming years, Kazakhstan’s agriculture will go the way of expanding oilseed plantings and harvests. This is stipulated by the State Agriculture Development Program for 2017-2021. As a reminder, its final targets envisage increasing the nation’s acreage of oilseeds to 3 Ml ha and their production to 3.046 MMT, including due to raising their yield to 1.02 MT/ha.
New season’s potential of the Russian rapeseed market higher than in 2016/17
Russian rape plantings for the 2017 harvest were expanded to 1022 Th ha. This oilseed’s yields are good at the initial phase of harvesting (2.1 MT/ha as of September 1, 2017 against 1.39 MT/ha a year ago).
Ukraine diversifying end markets for high oleic sunoil
As a result of a global surge in consumers’ interest in high oleic sunoil, in 2016/17 season Ukraine exported two and a half times as much as last season.
Ukrainian soybean market unlikely to hit new highs in 2017/18 season
In the current 2016/17 season, the soybean sector developments are exposed to a harvested bumper crop of 4338 KMT. It is worth reminding once again that the current marketing year features a decrease in domestic crushing of soybeans in favor of their exports – UkrAgroConsult has already written about this before. Will this trend keep on in the new 2017/18 season?
Russia: Сrushing capacity utilization is still an open question
Oilseed plantings in Russia have more than doubled since 2010 and totaled 12.3 Ml ha in the 2016/17 season. Their share in Russia’s overall planted acreage has also increased from 12.8% in 2010 to 15.4% in 2016.
Oilseed exports from Bulgaria
Bulgarian oilseed exports gradually decreased from 1.45 MMT in MY 2010/11 to 1.2 MMT in MY 2016/17 (from this point onward, exports for the whole marketing year of 2016/17 imply UkrAgroConsult’s forecast). Export capacity of any nation results primarily from the harvest. The diagram below illustrates how the export curve depends on oilseed crop dynamics.
Bulgaria: past and present of oilseeds
Bulgaria is a key oilseed producer in the Black Sea region. Oilseed plantings in Bulgaria exceed 1 Ml ha since 2010, accounting for over 20% of the nation’s total farmland. The exceptions are MY 2010/11 and MY 2012/13, when oilseed planted areas equaled 950 Th ha and 930 Th ha, respectively.
Russia. Quite optimistic outlook for the new oilseed season
The crop forecast, in particular that for oilseeds, which the article will concern, is a topical issue not only for growers but also for everyone directly or indirectly related to the market. Today we’ll discuss expectations for Russia’s sunseed, soybeans and rapeseed crops in 2017/18 season.
Ukrainian rapeseed crushers may set a new record
The 2016/17 season will be remembered for a sharp fall in Ukraine’s rapeseed crop to 1.2 MMT (567 KMT or 32% less than last year).
Bulgaria continues stepping up sunseed production
According to the final estimate made by the Ag Ministry of Bulgaria, farmers sowed sunflower on 820 Th ha in MY 2016/17 and harvested 1838 KMT from 818 Th ha.
Ukrainian margarine expanding into new end markets
In the current year of 2017, Ukrainian fat-and-oil producers managed to reverse the downward trend in the margarine market’s capacity.
Russia reducing dependence on soybean meal imports
Growers in the Black Sea countries have been increasingly interested in soybean cultivation over the recent decade. Russia’s agriculture follows the same trend. So, the soybean crop has more than quadrupled in this period, reaching a record 3.1 MMT in MY 2016/17.
Belarus may reduce consumption of Ukrainian meal
This year’s spring unsettled farmers in many of Europe’s countries, including Belarus with its desire to reduce the import dependence of the market of rapeseed and its products.
Russian-Turkish vegoils market in new conditions
As is well-known, Turkey stopped duty-free trade in sunseed products with Russia in March 2017. Specifically, it imposed a 36% duty on sunoil and a 13.5% duty on sunmeal and thereby deadlocked the bilateral trading relations. Remarkably, not only the Russians have to adapt and find ways out of the present situation.
Ukraine. April’s poor weather tests out winter rapeseed
The April “weather surprises” were the main topic last week. In some of Ukraine’s regions, the arrival of cold and snowfalls tested out winter rape as the crop most susceptible to spring frosts. Is the situation in the snow-covered April fields of winter rape that critical as it seems at the first sight? Who is right? The pessimists claiming that the crops are fully lost or the optimists confident in post-winter hardiness of rape? Let’s try to impartially assess the consequences of the arctic air intrusion into Ukraine.
Traders left no chance to Ukrainian soybean crushers
In the current 2016/17 season, the situation in Ukraine’s soybean sector makes analysts revise their forecasts and estimates again and again. This primarily concerns the soybean crop, whose official forecast was raised to 4.3 MMT.
Argentina: a new round of production and export growth on soybean market
Adapted from a presentation of Leandro Pierbattisti, Argentina’s Federation of Elevators, a speaker at the XIV International Conference “Black Sea Grain-2017”
The world’s soybean production in MY 2016/17 is estimated at 341 MMT. Argentina accounts for 16% of the total global soybean volume.
Ukraine to press Russia in the Turkish vegoil market
Sunoil trade persists to be a topical issue for the Black Sea countries in MY 2016/17, when they face a task to process and sell a bumper sunseed crop. UkrAgroConsult already wrote before that end markets had been redistributed over the last three seasons between the key competitors, i.e. Ukraine and Russia. The current marketing year continues showing previously set trends.
Problem of banned Ukrainian meal imports to Belarus is greatly exaggerated
Belarus has always faced a shortage of vegoils and protein. Rapeseed, being the protein oil crop most adapted to the country’s soil and climate conditions, is purposed to at least minimize this problem, if not solve it.
Will Ukrainian sunoil withstand competition?
Ukrainian refined sunoil matched Asian consumers’ taste
Refined sunoil production in Ukraine has been fluctuating within 550-675 KMT a season over the last several years. Although the current marketing year features a bumper crop and a record fast sunseed crushing, production of refined sunoil in the past five months of 2016/17 is at its three-year average of 264.2 KMT, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Ukraine. Soybean crushers losing to exporters
In the current season 2016/17 features a bumper soybean harvest in Ukraine, which is estimated by UkrAgroConsult at 4 MMT. At the same time, according to UkrAgroConsult, the crusher interest in soybeans is declining. The main reason is decreased domestic demand for soybean products, primarily soybean meal as a basis for poultry feed. Statistics show a downward trend in poultry inventories. They sank by almost 2% over the year (195,117 Th head as of February 1, 2017 against 198,964 Th head a year ago).
Year 2017 as a test for the Ukrainian mayonnaise market
The mayonnaise market in Ukraine experienced hard times in the last two years. As a reminder, it passed a few development stages, beginning from the consumer market saturation period in 2003-2007, a slight production decline towards 2010 and subsequent stabilization in 2010-2013. The following period (2014-2015) saw a slump in outputs. So, mayonnaise production plummeted to 126.1 KMT in 2015 against a record 183.5 KMT in 2007. That was how mayonnaise makers responded to sinking demand both in the domestic and foreign markets.
Oilseed cultivation in Russia still profitable
Russia’s Ag Ministry announced its preliminary forecast for the 2017/18 cropping pattern.
Ukraine. State price regulation becoming history
A pilot project was in effect in Ukraine from October - December 2016 under which the government “let go” prices for socially sensitive goods. As a reminder, a regulation had been in force since as early as 2007 that made it mandatory to declare price raises for all socially sensitive foods by more than 1% a month, i.e. the producers were obliged to receive permit for changing the price. The government resolution No. 656 of September 22, 2016 suspended this regulation for the period from October 1, 2016 till January 1, 2017.
Bulgaria shifting the sunseed use priority to crushing
Bulgarian growers managed to get 1701 KMT of sunseed in 2016/17 season, down less than 0.5% from last year’s harvest, UkrAgroConsult reports.
Russian growers may expand rapeseed plantings
The interest of Russian farmers in rapeseed growing has somewhat declined over recent years. According to preliminary estimates by Russia’s Agriculture Ministry, growers managed to harvest 1.4% less rapeseed in the current season 2016/17 than a year ago – 998 KMT. This result can be regarded as satisfactory, taking into account that it was gained despite a planted acreage drop, heavy winter losses and a yield below the five-year average, reports UkrAgoConsult.
China cutting soybean oil purchases from the Black Sea region
According to forecasts for MY 2016/17, China – the world’s top soybean oil consumer – will increase domestic use of this product. Apart from growth of own production, imports are also expected to rise, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Ukraine. Prospects of oilseed production in 2017/18 season
The interest in oilseeds growing has strengthened considerably over the last decade. As a result, plantings for MY 2016/17 expanded to 8.9 Ml ha against 6.3 Ml ha in MY 2007/08. As sunseed is the most remunerable oilseed, exactly sunflower accounts for 65-70% of planted acreage, and its share will reach 71% in the current marketing year.
Bulgaria to compensate for rapeseed shortage in the EU market
Bulgaria’s 2016/17 rapeseed planted acreage was reduced by 2.3% to 170 Th ha that is somewhat below its long-term average. Favorable weather conditions allowed farmers to get a record rapeseed yield in 2016/17. The total rapeseed crop consequently hit 493.1 KMT in 2016/17, i.e. exceeded the most optimistic expectations.
Russia losing Kazakhstan’s market of sunflower oil
A State Program for 2017-2021 agriculture development has been worked out in Kazakhstan, envisaging an accelerated pace of the agricultural sector’s development and enhancement of its role in the national economy in the coming five years.
Russia. Oilseed harvest surpasses all expectations
Oilseeds harvesting in Russia is drawing to a close. Will grower expectations and analyst forecasts be justified? While it is already clear now that the oilseed harvest will surpass all estimates of specialists, the question about production profitability has not an unambiguous answer yet, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Retail networks keep Ukraine sunoil prices from rebounding
UkrAgroConsult has repeatedly touched upon the subject of retail trade in fat-and-oil products and now we’ll continue monitoring developments in this market segment in the terms of “let go” prices for socially sensitive goods.
Linseed looks promising for Ukrainian farmers
In Ukraine linseed belongs to niche agricultural crops, which require further advanced processing and are used in related industries such as pharmaceutical, confectionery, textile and others, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Ukraine reduces sunflower oil consumption
The share of sunflower oil in the structure of Ukrainian vegetable oils production is nearly 96%. In this regard, it’s logical that the majority of population prefers sunflower oil. It should be noted that total consumption of vegetable oils by population of Ukraine has decreased over the past year.
Ukrainian sunflower seed market: 2015/16 season results
The 2015/16 marketing year was quite successful for Ukraine in markets of sunflower seed and its processed products, reports UkrAgroConsult. All-time high sunseed production at 11760 KMT was the key to such a success. Favorable agro-meteorological conditions allowed obtaining the best result on close to record planted area, owing to minimal losses and high productivity.
Belarus tries out Ukrainian rapeseed meal
Belarusian farmers have finished rapeseed harvesting. Oilseeds and their processed products self-sufficiency remains the topical issue in the country these days.
Bulgarians disappointed with sunflower seed production
By the end of September Bulgarian farmers had harvested most of oil crops and, therefore, we can speak about prospects and potential of the new 2016/17 crop.
Ukrainian soybean complex conquers new markets
In the 2015/16 season Ukrainian farmers obtained all-time high soybean crop - 3927 KMT. Firstly, this result was achieved owing to acreage expansion to record 2200 Th ha.
Russia forces Ukraine out of Turkish sunflower oil market
As UkrAgroConsult previously reported, in September 2016 Turkey has decided to raise duties on safflower and sunflower oil imports. Import duty on safflower was raised from 4% to 23.4%, while the duty on raw sunflower oil imports increased from 12% to 36%, on processed - from 50% to 67.5% per 1 MT. Such measures are taken in order to protect local oilseeds producers and crushers.
Russian rapeseed: crushing to overcome exports
In the 2015/16 marketing year rapeseed gross production in Russia reached slightly more than 1000 KMT. This result was obtained in conditions of decreasing planted area for the second consecutive seasons to 1038 Th ha compared with record 1326 Th ha in the 2013/14 marketing year. In addition to acreage reduction, the productivity has also declined to 1.12 MT/ha.
Linseed and sunflower oust rapeseed from Kazakh fields
In Kazakhstan oilseeds planted area for 2016/17 crop increased to 2118 Th ha compared to 2101 Th ha last year. Planted area approached the 2014/15 season’s level, when the acreage reached all-time high at 2413 Th ha. Despite rains, weather conditions allowed farmers to conduct seeding within optimum time.