Yulia Garkavenko

IMG 0797Yulia Garkavenkoleading expert of oilseed and vegoil market at "UkrAgroConsult" (2003).

She is specializing in oilseed and vegoil market of Ukraine and Black Sea countries. Yulia’s primary focus is crop forecasts, S&D balances and market studies.

Yulia is an author and chief editor of UkrAgroConsult’s specialized weekly Newsletter "Black Sea Vegoils & CIS" (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Belarus).
 

 

 

Biography:


Yulia graduated from European University of Management and Business majoring in Finance and Crediting (1999).

She has a 14-year experience in analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian and CIS ag markets, holds numerous publications in Ukrainian and foreign journals.

 

Analyst's publications:


 

Ukraine. Rapeseed crushing fell to the 2013/14 level

16.05.2017

As expected, the current 2016/17 season did not feature significant crushing volumes. Due to a crop slump around the world, including Europe and Ukraine, rapeseed was in enormous demand from exporters, who could constantly raise export prices in view of growing global quotations.

Full article

Ukraine. Sunoil production unlikely to plummet in 2017/18

10.05.2017

According to official forecasts, sunflower plantings will total just 5.4 Ml ha in 2017, i.e. they are expected to shrink by more than 700 Th ha. UkrAgroConsult also believes that sunflower planted area for the 2017 crop will decrease, but the announced 5.4 Ml ha forecast is much underestimated. In our opinion, the drop in sunflower plantings, if any, will be at most 200-300 Th ha.

Full article

EU becoming more dependent on Canada and Australia

11.01.2017

The downward trend in world production has been persisting for a third consecutive season. This will affect rapeseed inventories, which will close the season of 2016/17 at 5.5 MMT, i.e. at the lowest level since 2012/13 (4.8 MMT). Rapeseed stocks in the EU will show a particularly substantial drop. USDA forecasts them to hit a decade low at 914 KMT.

Ukraine. Crop-2017: acreage allocation outlook

04.01.2017

Rapeseed. The 2016 drop in rapeseed production both in Ukraine (down 0.6 MMT) and the world (down 1.3 MMT) triggered a rise in this commodity’s price. Consequently, rapeseed became more expensive than sunseed for the first time in many years. The upward trend featured the first half of this season 2016/17 and high price secured good margin of rapeseed growing. The latter was the main driver of rape acreage expansion. According to the State Statistics Service, winter rape for the 2017 harvest was sown on an area of 899 Th ha (up 244 Th ha or 37% year-on-year). This was the first increase in four years.

Ukraine. Sunoil production, exports and inventories at high levels

27.12.2016

Ukraine’s crushers have substantially boosted sunoil output this season (2016/17). Sunoil production has been showing a record fast pace for a third consecutive month now, hitting new highs every month, Julia Garkavenko, chief oilseeds market expert of UkrAgroConsult notes.

Ukraine becoming monopoly supplier of sunflower meal to India’s market

06.12.2016

How much winter rapeseed Ukraine will lose due to early cooling?

22.11.2016

The weather conditions were quite favorable for planting 2017-crop winter rapeseed, more than 85% of its area was seeded within the optimum time. Consequently, out of the planted 844 Th ha, winter rape has emerged on 793 Th ha (94.7%) by November 17, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Full article

Ukrainian sunoil attracts increasingly numerous buyers

15.11.2016

Following low sunseed crushing volumes in August, Ukrainian crushers started the new season with record high processing of sunseed and production of sunoil.

Full article

Ukraine. Profitability of soybean production recovers

08.11.2016

The current 2016/17 soybean season is completely different from the past one, except for the fact that Ukraine is unlikely to obtain soybean crop higher than 4 MMT again.

Full article

Ukraine. Oilseeds supply and demand balance, September 2016

27.09.2016

UkrAgroConsult indicates the following tendencies:

- During 3 months of the season Ukraine shipped abroad over 57% of total rapeseed export capacity

- Ukrainian rapeseed stocks will be enough for only 1-2 months of trade

Full article

Ukraine. Sunflower oil is underestimated on the world market

13.09.2016

In the new 2016/17 MY due to the unparalleled sunflower crop -14 MMT (UkrAgroConsult`s forecast), Ukraine will be able to reach the record volume of sunflower oil production and exports – 5.65 MMT and 5.17 MMT, respectively.

Full article

 

Ukraine. Rapeseed profit margin and prices gladden. For how long?

30.08.2016

Rapeseed harvesting is complete in Ukraine. According to UkrAgroConsult estimates, rapeseed production is likely to be 30% lower than last year. Reduction of harvesting area due to significant winter rapeseed losses (234 Th ha) was the main reason for production decline. Nevertheless, rapeseed average yields appeared to be higher than expected and even higher than last year.

Full article

Sunflower planted area still underestimated in Ukraine

09.08.2016

The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine greatly surprised or even shocked the market by publishing the final data on oilseeds planted area, particularly that of sunflower - 5.9 Mln ha. It’s not that the market did not expect such a large sunflower acreage in 2016, but on the contrary. Back in December 2015 UkrAgroConsult estimated that sunflower planted area in Ukraine would exceed 6 Mln ha.

Full article

Heat in Ukraine. Will sunseed production decline?

19.07.2016

As we approach a new sunseed season, market attention is focused on production estimates in 2016. In particular, USDA believes that sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine will reach 13 MMT. Other experts concern about sunflower plants conditions because of heat and take a dim view of such a high production. They estimate sunseed crop to reach 12.5-12.7 MMT.

Full article

Ukraine exported record high sunoil volume before price collapse

12.07.2016

In June 2016 sunflower oil shipments to foreign markets were the highest ever for this month. But there was another record set in this season – during 10 months of the current marketing year Ukraine exported 3872 KMT of sunflower oil. The same volume was supplied to foreign markets during the whole 2014/15 season.

Full article

Prohibition of GM soy and corn in Russia: benefit or harm?

05.07.2016

After long discussions, which lasted for several years, Russia has adopted a law, which prohibits cultivation and breeding of GM plants and animals. Only carrying out of expert examinations and research work is an exception.

Full article

Ukraine gets back into the world sunflower seed market

22.06.2016

Sunflower sowing is almost complete in Ukraine. By June 16, sunflower planted area had exceeded 5.5 Mln ha. We should note that this year's official estimate of sunflower acreage in Ukraine is the highest ever. Meanwhile, this once again confirms UkrAgroConsult's estimate of sunflower planted area in 2016, which seemed impossibly ambitious in December 2015.

Full article

Ukraine may compete with Russia on linseed market

On May 31, 2016 a draft bill #4737 on cancellation of 10% linseed and camelina export tax was registered in Verkhovna Rada. We would like to note that such a bill was last time submitted to Verkhovna Rada in 2013. However, this initiative, as well as many others related to export duties abolition, was not supported.

Full article

Ukrainian mayonnaise market hit the bottom

07.06.2016

Production decrease trend has been observed in Ukrainian mayonnaise market for several consecutive years. In the 2014/15 season mayonnaise production reached 136 KMT. This figure declined by 12% over the past two seasons. UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukrainian enterprises will produce 120 KMT of mayonnaise in the 2015/16 season, and it will be the lowest result since marketing year 2003/04.

Full article

Ukraine. Soybean loses out to sunflower

31.05.2016

Soybean had been the most promising agricultural crop in Ukrainian market before 2016. Soybean planted areas and production set new records, and projections for next seasons were also quite optimistic.

Full article

Will Ukrainian oil extraction plants face sunflower seed deficit this season?

24.05.2016

Traditionally in spring crushers wonder whether there are enough raw materials until the end of the season, and whether sunflower seed production estimates are correct. Certainly, plants’ owners have a reason to worry, as total crushing capacity has already exceeded 15 MMT in Ukraine, while sunseed production was 11.5 MMT in 2015. In turn, crushing enterprises may suspend their work before its due time, because of raw materials deficit.

Full article

Ukraine. UkrAgroConsult increases oilseeds production estimate for next season

17.05.2016

Due to early resumption of vegetation and quite fast increase in active warmth at the beginning of spring period, maturation stages of winter crops development exceed the normal pace. Mostly warm weather and sufficient moisture stocks are also favorable for winter rapeseed. Winter rapeseed is at the stage of pod formation – seed formation. Nearly 60% of sowings are in good and satisfactory conditions.

Full article

China refuses to purchase Ukrainian high oleic sunflower oil?

11.05.2016

Despite increased demand for high oleic sunflower oil in the world, exports of this valuable product from Ukraine show a downward trend.

Full article

Ukraine. Record high corn and sunflower sowing rate - casual event or new trend?

04.05.2016

Profit margin is currently the main factor, which determines grain crops and oilseeds planted area. Corn is being seeded at a historically record pace. It should be mentioned that a survey of farmers conducted earlier showed that the majority of agrarians were going to leave corn planted area at the last year's level, or even reduce it. However, the weather is favorable, prices increased in the decision-making period, and seeding rates are unprecedentedly high, confidently moving towards the official forecast.

Full article

Ukraine. New achievements of oilseeds production in 2016

26.04.2016

In the 2016/17 season rapeseed production is not expected to be record high for several reasons:

  • winter rapeseed acreage decreased in Ukraine;
  • winter rapeseed losses are high this year.

Full article

Ukrainian margarine market. Is there any chance for recovery?

18.04.2016

Margarine production continues to decrease in Ukraine. In 2015 margarine production reached only 212 KMT, which was much lower than in 2014 (271 KMT). During 2011-2015 both exports and imports of margarine products decreased. Imports dropped from 43 KMT to 18.3 KMT, while exports – from 72 KMT to 31.3 KMT, i.e. imports and exports dropped by nearly 57%.

Full article

Belarus. 2016 rapeseed production will hit low since 2007

12.04.2016

According to the final data, Belarus harvested only 382 KMT of rapeseed in 2015 compared with 730 KMT in 2014. The considerable reduction of rapeseed harvest (-48%) happened due to unfavorable weather for rapeseed cultivation. Rapeseed productivity decreased by 14%, and harvesting area – by 38%.

Full article

Ukraine. Oilseeds production estimates for season 2016/17, April 2016

05.04.2016

Last week the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine published its final data on 2015 harvest. According to official data, Ukraine produced 16.85 MMT of oilseeds, which was 4% higher than in 2014. Sunflower seed and soybean harvest increased by 10% and 1.3% respectively, while rapeseed production decreased by 21%.

Full article

Ukraine. Sunflower seed supply and demand balance, March 2016

22.03.2016

2015/16 season

Only estimates of sunflower seed exports and imports were changed in the March supply and demand balance.

UkrAgroConsult raises its estimate of exports to 60 KMT (the previous estimate was 40 KMT, and 50 KMT were shipped abroad in the 2014/15 season), due to higher export pace than previously expected.

Full article

Ukraine. Sunflower oil exports by all means

15.03.2016

The first half of oil crops season 2015/16 was not easy for crushing enterprises of Ukraine. The 26% devaluation of Ukrainian hryvnia provoked considerable increase of domestic prices for raw materials (sunflower seed).

Full article

What will Europe buy instead of Ukrainian rapeseed?

01.03.2016

Traditionally Ukraine is the major supplier of rapeseed to European market, exporting at least 1 MMT of this oil crop annually.

Full article

Sunflower ousts wheat from Ukrainian fields

23.02.2016

Over the last three months weather conditions have been neutral for winter crops in Ukraine. About 33% of all winter cereals and oilseeds (2.3 Ml ha) are currently weak and thinned. Nearly 1.7 Ml ha of wheat, 340 Th ha of barley and 200 Th ha of rapeseed are in risk zone. The weather is expected to be relatively favorable for winter crops in the coming month. It means that significant increase of winterkill is unlikely. This allows forecasting the planted area of spring crops in 2016, based on survived winter crops.

Full article

UkrAgroConsult announced first forecasts of oilseeds season 2016/17

16.02.2016

Rapeseed. The trend of rapeseed production decrease will continue in the 2016/17 season. Despite the reduction of production by 32%, we expect further increase of crushing inside the country by 1% owing to decrease of export shipments by 40%.

Full article

Ukraine. Phosphatide concentrate market attracts new players

19.01.2016

Sunflower phosphatide concentrate exports from Ukraine increased along with its production. Over the period of 2008-2015 the exports grew by almost 500%. In 2015 Ukraine exported record high volumes of phosphatide concentrate.

Full article

Ukraine. Farmers will give preference to sunflower in 2016

12.01.2016

Traditionally in spring Ukrainian farmers have to choose which crops to sow. When a few years ago soybean was the favorite crop for farmers (planted area increased by 20-30% annually), then in 2016 the preference will be given to sunflower, estimates UkrAgroConsult.

Full article

Ambitious plans of Ukraine are under threat

15.12.2015

In 2015 planted area of soybean was 27 times as much as in 2001 in Ukraine! Only soybean can boast of such staggering results in Ukrainian agricultural market.

Full article

Ukrainian sunflower oil becomes number one in world market

01.12.2015

Search for sunflower seed for domestic processing has become a steady trend in Ukrainian market over the last few years. This season, in addition to the need of supplying the ever-growing processing capacity with raw materials (at least by 60%), there is another important factor – the need to provide the world market with sunflower oil. There are several reasons. Firstly, conflict between Turkey and Russia, which will trigger considerable growth of demand from Turkey for sunflower oil of "other origin".

Full article

UkrAgroConsult: First estimates of spring crop in 2016 are announced

24.11.2015

Reduction of winter crops planted area creates preconditions for increase in acreage of spring grain and oil crops. UkrAgroConsult forecasts that grain area will increase by 1.77 Ml ha, and oilseeds acreage – by 0.7 Ml ha compared to last season.

Full article

Ukraine. Will rains save harvest?

27.10.2015

This year agrometeorological conditions had a negative impact on agricultural crops. Summer drought, which was observed practically over the whole territory of Ukraine, not only cut the 2015 crop, but also created difficult conditions for sowing of winter crops, especially, winter rapeseed. Absence of rainfalls in August, September and early October caused insufficient sowing of winter rapeseed for 2016 crop.

Full article

UkrAgroConsult’s oilseed crop estimates

15.09.2015

In the 2015/16 season slight oilseed crop reduction is expected due to a 15% drop in rapeseed production. At present time, sunseed production prospects look very optimistic. According to UkrAgroConsult, sunseed production will reach 10.7-11 MMT.

Full article

Large plant producing lecithin can make Ukraine the worldwide leader

08.09.2015

Today a vast majority of foodstuffs is produced using lecithin. Generally, soybean lecithin from India, Argentina, USA, China, Europe etc. is available in the world market.

Full article

Ukraine. Soybean supply and demand

25.08.2015

Exports of soybean from Ukraine are record high at the end of the season. Consequently, UkrAgroConsult has raised its estimates of soybean exports in season 2014/15 to 2.42 MMT.

Full article

Ukraine may run out of rapeseed in 2016

17.08.2015

This year extremely unfavorable weather conditions during soil preparation for sowing of winter rapeseed are observed in Ukraine, since longtime deficit of precipitation is noted throughout the territory of Ukraine (especially in July - August, when moisture resources for winter crops seeding are formed).

Full article

LPR and DPR moved thousands tons of Ukrainian sunseed to Russia

27.07.2015

The current season 2014/15 happened to be difficult with regard to sunseed. Back in October 2014, at the sunseed harvest time, all market players made attempts to calculate how much sunseed had gone to Russia. Different figures were announced then: 10 to 30% of the entire sunseed crop grown in the region. It is absolutely impossible to confirm or deny any figure because no official information has been published on the matter.

Full article

Starting prices for new crop rapeseed are record high

01.07.2015

The beginning of new 2015/16 season is remarkable for increasing prices for rapeseed in the world market due to shortfall in production in the major producing countries. In Europe rapeseed prices have been constantly growing for already 2 months.

Full article

Ukrainian companies losing profits on sunflower meal

22.06.2015

Sunflower meal production in Ukraine has been trending upward for 15 years now. It increased more than 4.5 times in this period. Gradually growing production and limited domestic sales of this product have turned Ukraine from a consumer into an exporter. Now the country exports about 80% of all the sunmeal it makes, being its main supplier to the world market.

Full article

World market oversaturated with GM-soybeans, “clean” product in fashion now

15.06.2015

A new trend is lately observed in the world market: rising demand for non-GM soybeans. This is particularly pronounced in Europe, which needs at least 5 MMT of non-GM soybeans a year. European growers themselves are not yet capable of meeting all the domestic demand for “clean” soybeans. As the fashion for non-GM soybeans catches on with an increasing number of customers, one can say with confidence that this will be a wide-spread feature with time and the demand for such soybeans will grow in arithmetical progression.

Full article

 

Rapeseed intrigue of season 2015/16: Traders against oil extraction plants

08.06.2015

No one doubts that Ukraine’s rapeseed crop will fall in the new season, but market participants’ opinions on the crop size have divided. Some of them predict a crop decline to 1.5 MMT, others to 2 MMT. UkrAgroConsult’s estimates are within their previous level of 1.9 MMT, or down some 300 KMT from 2014/15.

Full article

Russia ousting China from the Ukrainian market of soybean products

02.06.2015

With the available enormous potential both in agricultural and processing sectors, feedstock exports still prevail over domestic processing in Ukraine.

Full article

Cereal and oilseed plantings in the temporarily occupied territories are greatly overestimated

09.04.2015

When forecasting grain and oilseed harvests, companies operating in Ukraine usually had to take into account the weather and economic factors.

Full article

According to UkrAgroConsult sunseed crushing capacities can almost 2 times exceed Ukraine’s total sunseed crop

Strong sunoil demand both from the domestic and foreign markets and stably high sunseed harvests in Ukraine have been driving substantial growth of sunseed crushing capacities in recent years.

Full article

Has Ukraine enough sunseed until the end of the season?

18.03.2015

Against the background of a 9% sunseed crop drop in 2014, crushing of this oilseed lags behind the previous record season just by 1.5%, and many fear that the market will face a substantial feedstock deficit as soon as June.

Full article

Are investments in new plants justified when existing ones are on the brink of being stopped?

10.03.2015

Reports about the construction of new oilseed crushing plants increasingly often appear in the market lately. But this time, contrary to the previous events, it is planned to build crushers not for sunseed, since sunseed processing capacities have long exceeded 15 MMT a year. The matter concerns soybean crushing.

Full article

Change of Ukrainian soybean oil market leaders

16.02.2015

Soybean oil production in Ukraine has been expanding quite rapidly in the recent years, up to 30-35% annually. Soybean crushers mushroom out, too. About 60 soybean oil producing companies operate in Ukraine now. However, more than 50% of output is on account of just three companies.

Full article

Sunseed export duty abolition: all the pros and contras

03.02.2015

Bill No. 1837 suggesting abolition of the 10% sunseed export duty was registered on January 26, 2015. The lawmakers have been hitting the Verkhovna Rada with such bills on an incredibly regular basis, but none of them has been approved yet.

Full article

Exporters may leave crushers without raw material

26.01.2015

The season 2014/15 featured an unprecedented soybean crop. UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukraine harvested more than 3.8 MMT of soybeans against 2.7 MMT in 2013/14. The bumper crop obtained was enough to fully provide both exporters and crushers with this feedstock. However, the season’s first months saw just a stunning pace of soybean exports.

Full article

Ukrainian refined sunoil conquering new markets

19.01.2015

Although Ukraine is the top sunoil supplier of the global market, the share of refined oil in its exports is rather modest yet.

Full article

UkrAgroConsult predicts decline in oilseed crops in 2015

13.01.2015

UkrAgroConsult preliminarily forecasts Ukrainian oilseed plantings for 2015 to shrink to 8.2 Ml ha and the harvest to 15.6 MMT.

Rapeseed

The autumn agro-meteorological conditions were not very favorable for planting and initial growth of winter rape. Due to dry weather, early-sown rape failed to emerge in some fields and farmers had to reseed them. According to preliminary information, winter rape was planted on a total area of some 891 Th ha and emerged on 858 Th ha (96.3%).

Full article

Myth about unprofitability of rapeseed crushing in Ukraine put in question

29.12.2014

While Ukraine is on the top three list of global rapeseed exporters, the trade in rape oil is low due to small volumes of rapeseed crushing in the country.

Full article

Ukraine’s 2015 sunseed crop may be still lower

22.12.2014

The combination of numerous negative factors in the current 2014/15 season, which we’ll dwell on below, has affected farmer sentiment: growers preliminarily intend to decrease next year’s plantings of sunflower.

Full article

Sunoil prices will surely grow

15.12.2014

The rapid decline in crude oil prices continues since June 2014. Over this period, they have lost 40% and hit a five-year low.

Full article

Domestic soybean crushing in Ukraine: new highs again and again

13.11.2014

Domestic soybean crushing in the first month of the season was up 27% year-over-year. However, companies such as ZernoProduct and SlavTrade Agro left the list of major soybean crushers in September. Each of the oil pressing plants has a small soybean crushing capacity of 100 MT a day or 33 KMT a year. These companies are located in Donetsk region and it is unclear for now if they will be able to resume operation in the coming months.

Full article

Ukrainian soybean exports to increase 43%

12.11.2014

Soybean exports in September 2014 were up 197% year-over-year despite the absence of Russia, which was the main soybean buyer in September 2013 (a 77% share). Due to restrictions imposed by Russia on Ukrainian soybean and meal imports and because of a good soybean harvest, we’ll most likely not see this brotherly country on the 2014/15 list of major buyers of soybeans from Ukraine. 

Full article

Booming development of Ukraine’s soybean market is in full swing

11.11.2014

The booming development of the soybean market continues in Ukraine. Perhaps, this is the only crop whose production increases some 100% a year. A pleasant fact is that this results not only from an expansion of plantings – very relevant to Ukraine’s agricultural production, but also from rising yields.

Full article

Ukrainian sunoil exports under the threat of a duty

09.07.2014

Ukraine’s fat-and-oil sector will remember May 2014 for a new intention of parliamentarians to introduce an export duty, this time on sunoil.

Full article

UkrAgroConsult pointing out optimistic prospects for soybean growing in Ukraine in 2014

20.03.2014

The prospects for soybean growing in Ukraine look quite optimistic at the moment. We expect further expansion of planting for 2014. UkrAgroConsult forecasts planted acreage to increase  to 1.6-1.75 Ml ha and average yield to 2 MT/ha. If weather conditions are favorable, 3.1-3.3 MMT of soybeans will be harvested this year (2.6 MMT in 2013), said UkrAgroConsult’s leading oilseeds market expert Yulia Garkavenko.  

As a reminder, the UkrAgroConsult consultancy held a press conference entitled “Harvest-2014: winter crop conditions and spring sowing campaign” on March 20, 2014. On the threshold of a new season and in view of the difficult current political situation the leading market experts shared their harvest expectations and told about winter crop condition and planting progress.

UkrAgroConsult: spring rape plantings to fall to a decade low in 2014

20.03.2014

On the threshold of a new season and in view of the difficult current political situation, the UkrAgroConsult consultancy held a press conference on March 20, 2014 to elucidate events in Ukraine’s agricultural market. The leading market experts told about their harvest expectations, winter crop condition, and planting progress.    

Survival of Ukrainian winter rape crops was satisfactory in December, January, and February. We estimate winter rape loss at 13 Th ha, or less than 2%. This is the lowest rate since 2008. Therefore this year’s spring rape plantings will be at a decade low of 27 Th ha (50 Th ha in 2013). We forecast the overall 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.2 MMT (2.35 MMT in 2013), UkrAgroConsult’s leading oilseeds market expert Yulia Garkavenko reports.