On Nov. 13, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released an updated U.S. feed outlook. U.S. feed grain production for 2008-09 was forecast at 323.6 million tonnes, down from 324.1 million tonnes last month, and down from 350.9 million in 2007-08. The month-to-month decrease was attributed to lower forecast corn and sorghum production; while barley and oats are unchanged this month. There were no changes in beginning stocks or imports, so total supply is decreased the same amount as production, the USDA said.

 

Total 2008-09 feed grain usage was projected at 338.8 million tons, down from 340.2 million last month, and from 345.3 million in 2007-08. Feed and residual use was decreased for sorghum, slightly lowering domestic use to 286.4 million tons from 286.5 million last month, but up from 275.4 million in 2007-08. Exports were lowered this month to 52.4 million tons from 53.7 million, and down from 69.9 million in 2007-08. Forecast feed grain stocks were increased this month to 32.7 million tons, down from 45.1 million in 2007-08.

 

Financial and macroeconomic developments combined with supply and demand fundamentals to reduce grain prices in 2008-09, the USDA said.

 

On a Sept.-Aug. marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2008-09 was projected to total 147 million tonnes, down from 163.2 million a year earlier. Corn was estimated to account for 91% of the total, down from 93% in 2007-08. The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2008-09 was 93.6 million, down from last year’s 94.9 million units. Feed and residual use per GCAU is estimated at 1.57 tons, down from 1.72 tons in 2007-08. The year-to-year decrease in GCAUs was attributed to production for all animal categories, except dairy, is expected to decrease in 2009.