Global soyaoil exports are likely to slacken in coming months with palm oil being the main gainer, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. Global 2008/2009 (October-September) soyaoil exports are likely to fall to 9.87 million tonnes from 11.12 million in the same year-ago period, it said.

 

But 2008/2009 (October-September) palm oil exports are set to rise to 35.13 million tonnes from 33.39 million a year previously. "Palm oil demand is set to pick up in coming months, benefiting from the usually wide price discounts relative to soyaoil and other oils and fats," it said.

 

"This season there will be the unusual situation that world supplies of soyaoil will only stagnate and that exports will be cut by 1.2-1.3 million tonnes from last season. Mainly palm oil and partly also sun oil will fill this gap." "We therefore expect palm oil stocks to decline sizeably in the next 3-5 months. This will also be partly due to the seasonal decline in production."

 

Changes to the biological yield cycle of palm trees in key palm oil exporting countries coupled with intensified replantings and less fertiliser use will mean 2008/09 (October-September) palm oil output will be smaller than expected but still up at 44.39 million tonnes from 42.54 million the previous season. But output will be below estimated world 2008/09 palm oil consumption of 44.63 million tonnes, up from 41.36 million in 2007/08, it said.

 

GLOBAL SOYAMEAL DEMAND IS WEAKENING: Global soyameal demand is weaker than expected and sales by key exporting countries are likely to be lower than forecast in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.

 

Oil World estimates world 2008/2009 (October-September) soyameal exports will fall by 800,000 tonnes on the year to 55.4 million tonnes. "We estimate world consumption of soyameal to rise by only 1.5 million tonnes or 0.9 percent from a year earlier in October-September 2008/09," it said. "This is the smallest year-on-year increase in five years."

 

World trade in soyameal has declined noticeably in recent months and will probably fall on the year in October-December 2008, it said. "Soyameal usage has fallen short of expectations lately in the US, the European Union, several Asian countries as well as other places," it said. "Poor feeding profitability in the livestock sector has resulted in cutbacks in production in the poultry, pork and partly in the aquaculture industries."

 

It now estimates that US 2008-09 October-September soyameal exports will fall to 7.67 million tonnes from 8.39 million tonnes in the same year-ago period. Brazil's exports are forecast to fall to 10.95 million tonnes from 12.04 million tonnes in this period but Argentina's are still forecast to rise to 27.70 million tonnes from 26.90 million.