Minimization of climate risks and agricultural production strategies

18.11.2015

Over the last ten years Ukraine has increasingly suffered from autumn droughts. This year is no exception. Summer and autumn drought created a situation when projections of winter crops sowing for 2016 harvest have not been fulfilled. According to UkrAgroConsult, winter grain planted area declined by 1.4 Ml ha this season compared to last year, while winter rapeseed acreage dropped by 245 Th ha.

Consequently, winter crops acreage has decreased to its lowest level over the last 10 years. The situation is complicated by the fact that germination and conditions of crops are among the worst ever recorded. As of mid of November, grain crops emerged only on 62% of the planted area. And more than 30% of emerged crops were weak and thinned. This means that during spring sowing in 2016 farmers will have to think about compensating for the insufficient sowing and losses of winter crops, which, according to preliminary estimates, may reach 800 Th ha.

Moreover, according to long-term forecasts, climate changes are expected in Ukraine promoting some increase in summer temperatures and severe droughts. The detailed information on climate change impact on the structure of grain and oilseeds harvest, and further possible changes in the medium term is available in the study of UrkAgroConsult "Climate risk minimization and agriculture strategies".

Content

Introduction

1. Global and regional climate change

2. Ukraine`s climate resources and tendencies of their change  

2.1. Thermal resources

2.2. Moisture resources               

2.3. Climate change scenarios

3.  Impact of the climate change on Ukrainian crops

3.1. Impact of the climate change on the growing period

3.2. Optimum field work timing       

3.3. Crop wintering peculiarities      

3.4. Impact of weather phenomena on plants during the growing period and moisture saving practices

3.5. Change of cropping pattern      

3.6. Impact of the climate change on the grain quality          

3.7. Impact of the climate change on the phytosanitary situation    

3.8. Advantages and risks of the future climate scenario     

4. Forecast climate change impact on staple crops’ productivity 

4.1. Forecast agroclimatic indicators       

4.2. Climate changes influence on productivity of main agricultural products     

5. Agricultural production strategies in climate change conditions       

5.1. Adjustment of cropping patterns in climate change conditions       

5.2. Assessment of the possibility to harvest two crops a year 

5.3. Irrigation – current status and problems, future of irrigated plantings         

5.4. Transboundary spread of crop pests and diseases in view of climate changes, its impact on the seed, plant protection and fertilizer market development.      

6. Comparison of crop margins with breakdown by climatic zone         

7. Improvement of agronomic practices             

8. Crop production forecast for 2013 - 2025.      

9. Prospects of global and domestic grain demand       

9.1. Long-term forecasts of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development – FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization)   

9.2. USDA long-term forecast   

9.3. Domestic demand prospects           

9.4. Estimate of grain export capacity in Ukraine            

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