Ukrainian corn: from raw material to processing
Ukrainian corn: from raw material to processing
Estimates for sowing, production and processing of the crop. Analysis of trends in foreign and domestic demand and export corn prices.
The study “Ukrainian corn: from raw material to processing” contains essential data: estimates for sowing, production and processing of the crop, as well as corn balances (exports, imports, consumption) in 2010 - 2017. It presents key characteristics of the corn production drivers and risks along with a SWOT analysis of the market.
A special focus is put on the analysis of trends in foreign and domestic demand and export corn prices.
The peculiarities of Ukraine’s grain logistics system are disclosed.
The study addresses the following key questions and issues:
- Corn or sunflower, comparative profitability of growing the competing crops.
- Promising end markets for Ukrainian corn. Export trends and geographical pattern. Top 10 exporters.
- Official data on plantings and production.
- Main drivers of foreign and domestic demand are identified.
- Corn processing for food, production and demand for corn groats and flour. Key producing companies.
- Corn starch market, production and sale of starch-and-syrup products. Key producers.
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General description and regional peculiarities of the grain storage system. Grain storage and handling capacities in ports.
The most important points in the latest update:
Relevance of the subject:
This study analyzes a cereal crop such as corn throughout the entire chain from its sowing to production and export. A lot of attention is paid to the trends in foreign and domestic demand for corn, as well as to peculiarities of its pricing in both domestic and export markets. In addition, the grain logistics system is presented in a wide context.
Corn planted areas in Ukraine steadily expanded until 2014. The only exception was 2009. In the following years, farmers remained constantly interested in corn due to its stable high margins. This brought about the expansion of plantings. Ukrainian corn producers mostly observe proper growing practices.
Before 2014, corn yield continuously rose in view of mostly favorable weather conditions. In addition, persistent consolidation and reshuffle of market players resulted in the emergence of major agricultural producers, i.e. agriholdings with a strong financial component and an intensive approach to corn cultivation.
In the condition of stable domestic grain consumption in Ukraine, export volumes depend mostly on the harvest. Wheat was Ukraine’s main export crop before 2009. A significant increase in the corn planted acreage that started in 2008 changed the export structure. Corn currently accounts for the bulk of grain exports. Traditionally, the top buyers of corn included North Africa, Europe, and the Near East. However, in recent years, grain is actively supplied to promising markets such as South-East Asian countries.
The fairly good quality combined with a low price has made Ukrainian grain more competitive in the world market. In the future, it will remain highly competitive due to lower production costs than in other countries.
Ukraine as a grain grower is located quite close to the world’s key consumers (countries of the Near East and North Africa), therefore it has a competitive advantage because of relatively low cost of grain delivery to the destination markets.
Contents:
1. Estimates for corn planting and production
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1.1. Official data on corn plantings and production
Corn plantings
Corn production -
1.2. Comparative profitability of growing corn and competing crops.
Profitability of corn growing
Profitability of sunflower growing
2. Trends in foreign and domestic demand for corn
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2.1. Export trends and geographical pattern
Grain exports from Ukraine
Grain export pattern
Corn export trends
Corn export destinations
Top 10 corn exporters -
2.2. Promising end markets for Ukrainian corn
Estimated corn imports by Ukraine’s major buyers
EU. Share of key corn suppliers
Egypt. Share of key corn suppliers
China. Share of key corn suppliers
Israel. Share of key corn suppliers
Tunisia. Share of key corn suppliers -
2.3. Development of global demand for grain and meat as a driver of foreign demand
Global meat production -
2.4. Development prospects of the livestock sector as a driver of domestic demand
Compound feed production
Cattle, hog, and poultry inventories
Pattern of feed use of corn -
2.5. Corn processing for food uses. Production and demand for corn groats and flour
Ukraine: Regional production of corn groats
Ukraine: Corn groats production trends
Ukraine: Regional pattern of corn groats production
Ukraine: Top 15 corn groats producers
Ukraine: Corn groats exports
Ukraine: Export destinations of corn groats
Ukraine: Regional production of corn flour
Ukraine: Corn flour production trends
Ukraine: Top 10 corn flour producers
Ukraine: Corn flour exports -
2.6. Industrial use of corn. Production and sale of starch-and-syrup products
Corn starch production
Starch exports by type
Corn starch exports
3. Corn supply and demand balance
4. Grain logistics system
- 4.1. Grain storage system. General description and regional peculiarities
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4.2. Grain storage and handling capacities in ports
Ukraine. Port capacities for handling export grain
Actual grain handling (exports + transits) in Ukrainian ports
Ukraine. Monthly grain shipments via sea ports
Ukraine. Grain exports via sea ports
5. Behavior of domestic and export prices for corn
6. Drivers and risks in silage corn production
7. SWOT-analysis of the corn market
Conclusion:
The increase in global population and growing incomes in developing countries, which are the top consumers of Black Sea grain, will drive the rise in exports. Subsidiaries of international trading companies along with Ukrainian agriholdings are the biggest players in the corn export market.
Over recent years, Ukraine has expanded its share in the world corn market and become a major grain supplier. Apart from being the main source of corn for EU countries, Ukraine enlarges its footprint in the Near East and North Africa too. Ukrainian grain enjoys strong demand from South-East Asia (Philippines, Indonesia etc.), where the consumption level is to keep climbing up.
The expansion of production and trading capabilities in Ukraine may prompt the introduction of new farming practices to further boost grain output. The concentration of production capacities may create prerequisites for investment and the development of grain market infrastructure.