2018 U.S. wheat carryover unchanged but with adjustment by class

13.09.2017

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018, at 933 million bushels, unchanged from the August report but down 251 million bushels, or 21%, from 1.184 billion bushels in 2017. All all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2017-18 were unchanged from August, but there were adjustments made to the balance sheets by class.

The USDA forecast the carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2018, at 463 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the August projection but down 22% from 593 million bushels in 2017. The increase in the carryover forecast from August reflected a 10-million-bushel decrease in forecast exports for 2017-18 to 400 million bushels, which compared with 455 million bushels as the export total for 2016-17.

The USDA forecast the carryover of hard red spring wheat on June 1, 2018, at 146 million bushels, up 15 million from the August projection but down 38% from 235 million bushels in 2017. Spring wheat imports in 2017-18 were forecast at 73 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from the August projection and compared with 42 million bushels in 2016-17. Meanwhile, the USDA forecast hard red spring wheat exports in 2017-18 at 260 million bushels, down 10 million from the August projection and down 19% from 321 million bushels in 2016-17.

The USDA raised its forecast for the carryover of durum on June 1, 2018, to 24 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from the August outlook but down 33% from 36 million bushels in 2017. The upward adjustment from August reflected a 2-million-bushel increase in forecast imports to 45 million bushels. Last year, the United States imported 30 million bushels of durum.

The USDA forecast the carryover of soft red winter wheat on June 1, 2018, at 229 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from the August projection but up 14 million bushels from 215 million bushels in 2017. The downward adjustment from August reflected a lower 2017-18 import forecast at 15 million bushels compared with 33 million bushels in 2016-17.

The carryover of white wheat on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 70 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from the August projection and down 33% from 105 million bushels in 2017. The downward adjustment from August reflected a 20-million-bushel increase in the 2017-18 export forecast to 205 million bushels. In 2016-17, white winter wheat exports aggregated 163 million bushels.


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