Ag Canada raises 2016/17 grain/oilseed carryout forecast


Canadian grain and oilseed ending stocks for 2016/17 are forecast to be larger than earlier expectations, according to the latest monthly supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division, released September 1. The new estimates account for the updated Statistics Canada production estimates released August 23.

Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 9.955 million tonnes by the end of the 2016/17 crop year, up from an earlier estimate of 8.550 million.

Carryout for the 2015/16 crop year was estimated at 10.151 million tonnes.

The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.

Total production of the eight major grains and oilseeds for 2016/17 was forecast at 78.485 million tonnes, which was up from the July estimate of 75.035 million tonnes and the 77.596 million tonnes grown in 2015/16.

Total exports were forecast at 40.369 million tonnes for 2016/17, up from 38.883 million in July. Exports for 2015/16 were pegged at 42.497 million tonnes.

Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2016/17 crop year was forecast at 40.286 million tonnes, which would be up from the 39.641 million tonnes forecast in July. Total domestic usage in 2015/16 was pegged at 40.352 million tonnes.

September estimates for Canadian 2016/17 and 2015/16, grain and oilseed supply and demand. Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage. In million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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