Analyst ups Ukraine 2018 wheat, barley crop, export forecas


Ukrainian analysts have upped forecasts for wheat and barley crops and exports in 2018. Analyst UkrAgroConsult on March 6 raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2018 wheat crop by 4.8% to 26.3 million tonnes mostly due to a larger harvested area.

The consultancy said in a statement the higher output would allow the country to export 17 million tonnes of wheat in the 2018/19 crop season. This year, Ukraine is likely to harvest 6.4 million hectares of wheat with the average yield of 4.11 tonnes per hectare, the consultancy said. In 2017, Ukraine harvested wheat from the area of 6.2 million hectares while the yield was at 4.21 tonnes per hectare.

"Ukrainian winter cereals are in the best condition in four years. And, since the winter of 2017/18 was quite mild in terms of both temperature and precipitation, loss rates in winter cereals are likely to be low," UkrAgroConsult said. "In particular, we expect that, at most, 1% of winter wheat will be lost."

UkrAgroConsult said that a larger barley harvested area was the main reason for a higher crop and export outlook this year. Farmers are likely to sow 2.7 million hectares of barley this year and could harvest 2.67 million hectares, with an average yield of 3.26 tonnes. Last year, Ukraine harvested 2.5 million hectares of barley with the yield of 3.32 tonnes.

"Based on our forecast of a 6.5-7% rise in Ukrainian plantings of barley – to 2.7 million hectares, its production may amount to some 8.6-8.8 million tonnes in 2018. So, Ukraine's export potential may reach 5 million tonnes in 2018/19," the consultancy said.


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