Argentina soy crop to fall to 47m mt, corn 37m mt: BAGE


Buenos Aires Grain Exchange became the latest analysts to slash their estimates of the battered Argentinian harvest on Thursday, cutting its soybean forecast to 47 million mt and its corn to 37 million mt.

The figures, published in a weekly update Thursday, are down 3 million mt and 2 million mt respectively versus its last projection and down from the 57 million mt of soybean and 41 million mt of corn the nation produced in 2017.

The revision comes hard on the heels of the Rosario exchange’s similar reassessment, published late Wednesday where it slashed its soybean outlook to at 46.5 million mt for soybean and 35 million mt for corn.

While rain at the beginning of the week alleviated some of the dry areas of Buenos Aires, water conditions continued to reflect a drought scenario however, with the crop already showing "irreversible damage that could even accentuate during the next days,” the report said.

It added that in other key growing regions, such as Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios, "there is a real risk that a large part of the area planted with soybeans will be lost.”

In terms of corn, the exchange said the crop was entering a critical stage.

The Argentinian ministry of agriculture and industry warned in its latest monthly bulletin of “irregular rains, both in coverage and in quantity” lie ahead for the soy and corn crop.

The ministry said that it has been too dry and too hot for the crop, and further development will depend on the weather, but left its soybean acreage estimate unchanged at 16.5 million hectares, down 8.3% versus the previous campaign.

Argentina is the world’s third largest exporter of soybeans and biggest exporter of soymeal and soyoil.

FOB prices have risen between 4-5% in Brazil and the US since the start of the month as the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade rallied on the news.

The Argentinian ministry revised upwards by 3.3% its figure for the 2017/18 corn area to 8.9 million hectares, 6.6% higher compared to the 2016/17 harvest as recent rains in the Northeast and Northwest improved sowing conditions.


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