Argentinian wheat prices to become supportive of global prices from Q1 2019

23.11.2018

Argentinian wheat is expected to become bullish after December and January as supply gets tighter and the carry per month gets stronger, market sources said this week.

Currently, global prices are expected to dampen in December and January on the Argentinian harvest taking place, with around 40% of it expected to be completed by the end of November.

But with 30% of the new crop already sold, a figure considered high at this stage due to December being mostly committed and January sales at full capacity, sources expect the carry to pick up from February onward.

Argentinian wheat was heard offered on a FOB basis late Thursday for December loading at $218/mt, while January is offered at $222/mt.

Equivalent Russia-origin wheat is offered at $226/mt and $231/mt, respectively, showing a much higher carry.

But from February, when Argentina is expected to focus sales on Brazil, deals are expected to happen at $225/mt and $230/mt in March, rising further in April if wheat is still available to be exported.

The most recent USDA WASDE report expects Argentina to export 14.2 million mt of the 19.5 million mt of wheat it is forecast to produce.



spglobal.com

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