Black Sea Grain: Development Drivers and Growth Limits

24.04.2018

«Success of the Black Sea region in the global agricultural market is obvious. In the past 15 years, its countries have managed to substantially expand their shares in the world corn, wheat, and sunoil trade. The Black Sea region is increasingly perceived specifically as an integrated player in the global agricultural market», emphasized Sergey Feofilov, General Director of UkrAgroConsult during the XV International Conference “Black Sea Grain - 2018”.

The previous 15 years featured a steady upturn in Black Sea production and exports. Discussing the prospects, we would like to point out the forecasts of global price trends for key crops till 2030.

First of all, noteworthy is that these forecasts are extremely conflicting. This implies to us that the world’s markets are entering an uncertainty period. And we are concluding that, despite all the diversity of challenges and factors, it is nevertheless aggravating competition that will play the key role in the global market within the next 10-15 years.

This directly concerns both Ukraine and other Black Sea countries, their position in the world markets. As for our region, this involves primarily competition in the domain of production and supply of grains and oilseeds.

Competition is intensifying mostly due to slowing growth of the global agricultural trade.

While in the previous 10 years (2007-2016) the wheat trade gained more than 50% and the soybean trade increased even 95%, the growth pace in the following decade (2017-2026) is forecast at 14‑16% and 20-22%, respectively.

 

UkrAgroConsult

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