Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean output seen at 109.39mn T

10.10.2017

Brazil’s soybean output in the 2017/18 crop season is expected to reach 109.39 million tonnes according to an average of 10 estimates compiled by Reuters on Friday.

In a previous poll in August, estimates indicated production at 110.60 million tonnes. Brazil’s soybean planted area this season is seen at 34.77 million hectares, up from 34.70 million in the previous survey.

Brazil produced 114.08 million tonnes of soybeans in the previous season (2016/17), according to agricultural statistics agency Conab, in an area of 33.91 million hectares.

The poll revealed that analysts continue to be cautious on their output projections.

While estimating a larger planting area, they think it is unlikely Brazil will have the same climate conditions that propped up oilseeds output in the last cycle, when the country had near-perfect weather from planting to harvesting of both soy and corn.

“We are imagining that the weather may not be so favorable. It seems it will be irregular. Although it is still early on in the cycle, there are signs indicating that we would hardly see full yields,” said broker and analyst Steve Cachia from Paran?-based Cerealpar.

He was referring to excessive dryness in the first stages of the new crop. Most of central Brazil had more than a month without rain from August to late September, which delayed planting compared to last year and to the region’s five-year average.

“There is apprehension regarding the possibility of La Ni?a developing during the season, which would leave the weather drier than normal in the South of Brazil and Argentina,” brokerage and consultancy INTL FCStone said in a report.

Consultancy Safras & Mercado is a dissonant voice. It raised its forecast on Friday to 114.7 million tonnes, the largest estimate in the poll, indicating a hefty increase in the planted area to 34.56 million hectares, more than half a million hectares above last season.

Safras said soybeans were likely to yield better returns for farmers than corn, so they tend to allocate even larger parts of their farms to the oilseed.


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