Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush in H2 Nov expected at 17.23 mil mt: survey


The amount of sugarcane crushed in Brazil's Center-South region in the second half of November is expected to be 17.23 million mt, down 9% or 1.62 million mt compared with the same period last year, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed Tuesday.

Industry association UNICA is to release the official production figures for the Center-South at 10 am local time (1200 GMT) Wednesday.

The wider range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 15.65 million mt to 19.5 million mt, while expectations for the ATR spanned from 128.9 kg/mt of cane to 131.9 kg/mt.

If the cane crush matches expectations, the cumulative volume of sugarcane crushed since the 2016-17 season that began April 1 would total 578.4 million mt, up 3% from same period a year ago.

Kingsman, the agricultural analysis unit of S&P Global Platts, expects a cane crush of 18.5 million mt and an ATR of 130-131 kg/mt of cane, while the percentage of cane directed toward the production of sugar is expected to be 45.8%.

The survey expects total recoverable sugar (ATR) to be 130.89 kg/mt of cane, up 11.9 kg/mt from in the same period last season but down 6.36 kg/mt from H1 November.

The ratio of cane that will be directed toward producing sugar is likely to be 45.98% in H2 November, compared with 33.09% at same time last year, the survey showed.

That would result in 987,000 mt of sugar production and 714 million liters of ethanol, up 40% on the year and down 19% on the year, respectively.

Ethanol sales (anhydrous plus hydrous) to the domestic market are expected to have reached 1 billion liters in H2 November, down nearly 145 million liters compared with same time last year, Kingsman forecast.

Hydrous ethanol is most used in flex-fuel vehicles, while the country mandates anhydrous is blended with gasoline at a proportion of 27%.


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