Canada's grain production forecast flat


The Statistics Canada June planting survey results suggest that the total area seeded to wheat, barley, corn and oats in 2016 will be 14.5 million hectares, 4.1% lower than 2015 seeded area, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a July 14 report. However, a return to more normal abandonment rates is expected to partially offset this decrease. The report forecasts area harvested to reach 13.924 million hectares, 2.62% below 2015 levels. This is in line with the USDA official estimate of 13.94 million hectares.

Current growing conditions across the prairies are favorable and expected to result in a return to average yields or slightly higher than average yields. This improvement over year 2015-16 yield levels is expected to off-set the decrease in area seeded to spring wheat, and partially off-set the decrease in area seeded to barley and oats in the prairies.

Total production of wheat, barley, corn and oats in 2016-17 is forecast to reach 52.56 million tonnes, only marginally lower than the previous year’s total production levels of 52.807 million tonnes. This is 240 total tonnes below the USDA official estimate of 52.8 million tonnes which assumes slightly higher yields for wheat and oats.

Total supplies of wheat, barley, corn and oats in 2016-17 is forecast to fall 3.68% from 2015-16 due to relatively flat production forecasted for 2016-17 and lower carry-in stocks resulting from strong export pace in 2015-16.

Total 2016-17 imports are forecast to fall to 1.595 million tonnes from expected 2015-16 levels of 1.748 million tonnes due mainly to adequate domestic supplies of corn and oats resulting from high carry-in stocks. The report estimates for 2015-16 marketing year is 112 total tonnes above the USDA official estimate based on a strong corn export pace.

Total exports in 2016-17 are forecast to fall nearly 8% from 2015-16 expected levels to 24.2 million tonnes due to lower supplies resulting from a forecasted flat total production levels and low wheat carry-in stocks. Year to date data for 2015-16 shows a strong export pace for wheat and corn; however wheat exports have been limited by low domestic supplies. The report estimates total exports in 2015-16 to fall to 26.275 million tonnes, 5.47% below 2014-15 export levels, and 275 total tonnes above the USDA official estimate of 26 million tonnes. This difference is attributed largely to the report forecasting higher exports in corn and wheat than the USDA official estimate.


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