Canadian 2018 wheat carryover estimated at 4.3 million tonnes

20.09.2017

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on Sept. 15 forecast the carryover of all wheat in Canada on Aug. 1, 2018, at 4.3 million tonnes, down 2.565 million tonnes, or 37%, from 6.865 million tonnes in 2017 and compared with 5.178 million tonnes in 2016. The durum carryover in 2018 was forecast at 800,000 tonnes, down 57% from 1.863 million tonnes in 2017. The carryover of wheat excluding durum was forecast at 3.5 million tonnes tonnes, down 30% from 5.003 million tonnes in 2017.  

AAFC estimated 2017 Canadian wheat production at 25.541 million tonnes, down 6.188 million tonnes, or 20%, from a record 31.729 million tonnes in 2016. Production of all wheat except durum in 2017 was estimated at 21.643 million tonnes, down 2.324 million tonnes, or 10%, from 23.967 million tonnes in 2016 and compared with 22.205 million tonnes in 2015. Durum production in 2017 was estimated at 3.898 million tonnes, down 3.864 million tonnes, or 50%, from 7.762 million tonnes in 2016 and compared with 5.389 million tonnes in 2015.

AAFC in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts said the steep drop in durum production resulted from a 16% decrease in seeded area compared with 2016 and lower-than-trend yields in the durum-growing area.

AAFC said a 1% increase in seeded area of wheat excluding durum in 2017 was more than offset by lower yields.

“The lower yields are due to a return to trend yields in most of Canada from the record yields in 2016-17, and below trend yields in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta because of low precipitation,” the agriculture ministry said.

AAFC estimated production of western red spring wheat at 16.087 million tonnes compared with 16.669 million tonnes in 2016. Canadian western red spring wheat is estimated to account for 74% of total Canadian wheat production this year compared with 70% in 2016.

All-wheat imports in 2017-18 were forecast at 110,000 tonnes compared with 111,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and 109,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Imports of wheat excluding durum were forecast at 100,000 tonnes, the same as in 2016-17. Durum imports were forecast at 10,000 tonnes compared with 11,000 tonnes in 2016-17.

All-wheat supplies in 2017-18 were forecast at 32.516 million tonnes, down 4.502 million tonnes, or 12%, from 37.018 million tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 34.803 million tonnes in 2015-16. Supply of wheat except durum was forecast at 26.746 million tonnes, down 1.399 million tonnes, or 5%, from 28.145 million tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 28.426 million tonnes in 2015-16. Durum supplies in 2017-18 were forecast at 5.770 million tonnes, down 3.103 million tonnes, or 35%, from 8.873 million tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 6.378 million tonnes in 2015-16.

AAFC forecast Canadian all-wheat exports in 2017-18 at 20.200 million tonnes, down 109,000 tonnes from 2016-17 and compared with 21.734 million tonnes in 2015-16. Exports of wheat excluding durum were forecast at 16 million tonnes, up 421,000 tonnes from 15.579 million tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 17.192 million tonnes in 2015-16. Durum exports in 2017-18 were forecast at 4.200 million tonnes, down 530,000 tonnes from 2016-17 and compared with 4.543 million tonnes in 2015-16.

Domestic disappearance of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 8.016 million tonnes, down 1.827 million tonnes, or 19%, from 9.843 million tonnes in 2016-17. The decrease was attributed to lower disappearance through feed, waste and dockage, forecast at 3.559 million tonnes, down 35% from the previous year, as food and industrial use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 3.480 million tonnes, up 2% from 2016-17.


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