Canadian farmers to plant more wheat, canola and oats this year

21.02.2018

AAFC forecast area planted to all-wheat in Canada for harvest this year at 9.51 million hectares.
 
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on Feb. 16 forecast area planted to wheat, canola and oats this spring to increase from 2017 with record area and production projected for canola.

AAFC forecast area planted to all-wheat in Canada for harvest this year at 9.51 million hectares (1 hectare = 2.47 acres), up 4% from 9.126 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9.31 million hectares, up 4% from 8.983 million acres in 2017. AAFC projected average yield at 3.22 tonnes per hectare, signifying a return to trend yields compared with 3.34 tonnes per hectare in 2017. Canadian wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 30 million tonnes, up only 16,000 tonnes from 2017.

AAFC commented that the planted area increase resulted from a projected 5% increase in spring wheat plantings that would more than offset an 11% decrease in winter wheat seedings.

“The spring wheat area is forecast to increase because of relatively good prices for spring wheat and a shift out of winter wheat and dry peas in Western Canada,” AAFC said.

AAFC projected planted area of wheat excluding durum (winter wheat and spring wheat) in 2018 at 7.3 million hectares, up 4% from 7.02 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 7.14 million hectares, up 4% from 6.895 million hectares. Average yield was forecast at 3.4 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.63 tonnes in 2017. Production of wheat excluding durum in 2018 was projected at 24.3 million tonnes, down 3% from 25.022 million tonnes in 2017.

AAFC projected area planted to durum for harvest this year at 2.21 million hectares, up 5% from 2.106 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was forecast at 2.17 million hectares, up 4% from 2.088 million hectares in 2017. Average yield was projected at 2.63 tonnes per hectare compared with 2.38 tonnes in 2017. Canadian durum production in 2018 was projected at 5.7 million tonnes, up 15% from 4.962 million tonnes in 2017 but more than 2-million-tonnes lower than the record crop in 2016 at 7.762 million tonnes.

AAFC said the larger planted area for durum was forecast because of lower carry-in stocks, relatively good prices and a shift out of lentils. The higher production forecast was attributed to the larger planted and harvested areas and a return to trend yields from the below-trend yields of 2017, which resulted from below-normal precipitation in the durum growing areas.
 
AAFC forecast Canadian area planted to canola for harvest this year at 9.73 million hectares, up 5% from 9.307 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9.716 million hectares, up 5% from 9.266 million acres in 2017. Average yield was forecast at 2.23 tonnes per hectare, down from an above-trend yield of 2.3 tonnes per hectare in 2017.

Canadian canola production in 2018 was projected at a record 21.7 million tonnes, up 2% from 21.313 million tonnes in 2017, the current record.

The larger forecast planted area for canola was due to “attractive expected returns compared to alternative field crops and the strong pace of sales for 2017-18,” AAFC said.

AAFC forecast area planted to oats for harvest this year at 1.325 million hectares, up 2% from 1.295 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 1.075 million hectares, up 2% from 1.049 million hectares in 2017. Average yield in 2018 was projected at 3.44 tonnes per hectare compared with an above-trend 3.55 tonnes in 2017. Canadian oats production in 2018 was projected at 3.7 million tonnes, down only 24,000 tonnes from the 2017 outturn at 3.724 million tonnes.

AAFC said the seeded area forecast for oats increased from 2017 “due to good U.S. oat futures levels, which will contribute to competitive pricing versus other cropping choices.”


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