Canadian grains analyst warns Aussie farmers to brace for poor prices


Australian grain producers are being urged to brace themselves for low prices after a bumper northern hemisphere harvest.

Canadian grains analyst Neil Townsend has been speaking with growers in the north of New South Wales and says the quantity of crops, including wheat, soybeans, corn and durum, will force international prices down.

He says there is some hope for Australian produce, with the quality of overseas crops not always consistent.
Audio: Canadian Neil Townsend talks grains and the northern hemisphere harvest (ABC Rural)

"What it looks like right now is that we are going to have world record all time high productions for corn, wheat and soybeans and that's going to be somewhat detrimental to prices," he said.

"It is going to be a very competitive year and it is going to be hard to get a price momentum where we have a sustained move upwards.

"The durum in Europe really had a big struggle with the weather and ended up very sub-par so there's a good opportunity to maintain higher quality durum and marketing for that durum around the world."
Guns not ruining grain... yet

Neil Townsend says countries like Brazil, Argentina and Canada will be competing with Australian produce.

He says global tensions are yet to influence grain markets, despite countries like Iraq losing large chunks of their wheat crops to terrorist organisations.

"Despite all the troubles in Ukraine and Russia, both countries have had successful growing seasons and have been very aggressive at exporting, they both just came off their record month in July for the volume of exports," he said.
"There hasn't been a disruption, there might be a situation if it gets worse, but I mean it's hard to imagine it could get worse...and again there could be some opportunities in to places like Iraq with food aid.

"We haven't seen any big volume movements based on risk, or based on geopolitical problems that have come in and done what I would call incremental or unexpected demand, we haven't seen that yet."




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