Canola futures nudge higher, as Canadian stocks fall a little short

06.02.2018

Canola futures recovered into positive territory after Canadian inventories of the oilseed were shown to have set a record by less than a margin than had been expected, with wheat stocks smaller than forecast too.

Canola futures for March recouped modest losses seen in early deals to stand at Can$495.10 a tonne in morning deals in Winnipeg, a gain of 0.3% on the day.

The recovery followed the release by Statistics Canada of data showing that while domestic stocks of the rapeseed variant hit 14.15m tonnes as of the end of last year, the highest on data going back to 1980, the figure was not quite as high as investors had expected.

Traders polled ahead of the data, which showed a sharp decline in canola stocks held by commercial operators, had expected a 14.3m-tonne figure.

Rapeseed reaction

In Paris, rapeseed futures for May recovered from lows reached earlier after Strategie Grains raised by 210,000 tonnes, to 22.78m tonnes, its forecast for the European Union rapeseed harvest this year.

Production at that level would be the highest in four years, with the revision reflecting small upgrades to both the area forecast, now put at 6.75m hectares, and yield, nudged higher to 3.38 tonnes per hectare.

Prices of both canola and rapeseed were also offered some support by currency markets, with both the euro and Canadian dollar retreating against the dollar, so boosting prices in local terms of assets traded internationally in greenback.

Still, May rapeseed stood down 0.3% at E344.75 a tonne.
 
Wheat decline

Canada’s wheat stocks as of the end of last year were pegged at 23.56m tonnes, a drop of 540,000 tonnes year on year – above the decline of some 200,000 tonnes that investors had expected.

However, with the decline relatively small in the scheme of total supplies, futures in spring wheat – of which Canada is a particularly important supplier - were little moved by the data, standing 0.2% lower at $6.02 ½ a bushel in morning deals in Minneapolis, for March delivery.

StatsCan pegged Canadian durum stocks as of the end of last year at 4.83m tonnes, a drop of 1.32m tonnes year on year, but more than 200,000 tonnes larger than investors had expected.

Stocks of other wheat were estimated at a three-year high of 18.73m tonnes, up nearly 800,000 tonnes year on year, but some 600,000 tonnes short of expectations.


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