Cereal production forecast at record level in 2016


Total cereal production in 2016 is forecast to reach 111 million tonnes, 8 percent up from the already bumper level of 2015, mainly on account of favourable weather during winter and spring that boosted yields. Wheat production is now forecast at a record level of 69.5 million tonnes, up from earlier expectations and 13 percent up from last year, following better‑than‑expected yields, although the crop quality is reported to be poorer. A lesser increase is expected for the maize crop, which is forecast at 13.5 million tonnes, 3 percent up from 2015, mostly as a result of increased plantings. By contrast, a contraction in the area planted to barley resulted in an estimated 2 percent production decrease.

Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing season also set to reach record high

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year are forecast at around 39 million tonnes, a new record level, 16 percent above the previous high achieved in 2015/16. Most of the increase is expected to come from higher wheat exports. The record domestic production and the removal of the wheat export tax are expected to boost exports. Moreover, wheat export availability in the European Union, historically a major competitor of the Black Sea region, is anticipated to decrease significantly following unfavourable weather.

As a result, wheat shipments are forecast to reach 29.5 million tonnes, which would make the Russian Federation the biggest wheat exporter in the world in 2016/17.

Maize exports are seen at 4.5 million tonnes, 500 000 tonnes below the high level of 2015/16.

Export prices for wheat increased slightly in September, while domestic prices declined

Limited supplies of high quality wheat and heavy rains over central parts of the country, led to a 3 percent increase in domestic prices of wheat in September.

However, export prices for wheat showed little net change in September. Export prices were slightly supported by resumption of sales to Egypt, however, heavy export availabilities continue to weigh on prices.


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