Cereal trade set to contract in 2017/18


• World cereal trade in 2017/18 is heading towards a 2.2 percent annual decline to around 386 million tonnes.

• International wheat trade is set to decrease by 2.2 percent in 2017/18 (July/June) to 170 million tonnes.  The EU is envisaged to regain its position as the world’s largest wheat exporter, shipping 29.7 million tonnes. This level would exceed Russia’s exports in 2017/18 by 1.0 million tonnes.

• Trade in coarse grains is forecast at nearly 173 million tonnes in 2017/18 (July/June), some 3 percent lower than in 2016/17. Smaller maize and barley flows account for bulk of this decrease.  In the case of maize, reduced demand from Brazil and several countries in southern Africa is envisaged to more than offset larger anticipated imports by the EU and several Asian countries.

• World trade in rice is tentatively forecast to remain on its path of recovery in 2018 (calendar year), rising by another 2 percent to 44.1 million tonnes. Although larger local crops may curb import growth in the Far East in 2018, demand is expected to remain strong in the Near East and in Africa.


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