EU becoming more dependent on Canada and Australia
The downward trend in world production has been persisting for a third consecutive season. This will affect rapeseed inventories, which will close the season of 2016/17 at 5.5 MMT, i.e. at the lowest level since 2012/13 (4.8 MMT). Rapeseed stocks in the EU will show a particularly substantial drop. USDA forecasts them to hit a decade low at 914 KMT.
Against the background of the EU’s growing need for imported rapeseed due to reduced own production and a harvest drop in Ukraine (the main rapeseed supplier to the EU) both Australia and Canada are enhancing their presence in the EU market. Despite partial loss of China’s market, which seeks to reduce rapeseed and rapeseed oil stocks accumulated in the state fund, these countries will be able to realize their export potential in the EU market – the more so as rapeseed reserves in Ukraine have actually been used up, Yulia Garkavenko, oilseeds market expert of UkrAgroConsult notes.