Global grain harvest forecast nears record level

22.01.2018

Grain production will remain high but growing demand is expected to start eating into stocks this year, according to the latest International Grains Council forecast.

The IGC has revised up its previous forecast for the 2017/2018 global harvest to 2,100mt from 2,079mt in November. This would bring world production of all grains just 2% below last year's record.

However, consumption is also expected to accelerate to 2,104mt. "As demand growth is expected to outstrip the increase in availabilities, total grains stocks are forecast to fall for the first time in five years, albeit only marginally, to 617mt," the IGC forecasts.

Trade is seen at a record

This is illustrated by the global wheat harvest forecast: "A 2% fall in world wheat production is projected in 2018/19, to 742mt, and given likely firm demand, the first drawdown of stocks is predicted since 2012/13," the IGC predicts. "Trade is seen at a record, bolstered by growing import needs in Africa and Asia, including in India."

Wheat harvests will produce more than previously thought in Russia, Canada, Argentina and Australia. The IGC has also revised its maize estimates upwards for the EU, the US, China, Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Soya bean production, too, is expected to be marginally lower than last year's record level, at 349mt, feeding expanding demand from Asia, the EU and Africa.


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