Global oilseeds, China, dollar tug at canola


Canola was softer today, after losses yesterday that mirrored soybeans and made the two crops some of the most active on the commodity markets. Today, however, the American holiday might have held it up, as that side of the oilseed trade moved into a long-weekend mode where if nobody moves, nobody gets hurt.

Asian palm oil prices softened, with Malaysian numbers falling to three-year lows, which is putting negative pressure on vegetable oils in general.

The International Grains Council was making some amendments to its earlier numbers, lowering global corn and soy production slightly and keeping wheat estimates flat.

ICE canola for January settled down $2.60 to end the day at $476.40 per tonne. Font months were all soft, March was at $484.80, down $2.40, May $492.80, down $2.50 and July remains just below $500 at $498.10, off $2.50 for the day.

Lower soybean prices in the U.S. has aided that industry in moving beans offshore, and that makes them very competitive with any Canadian bean sales and is holding down on canola prices.

A higher Canadian dollar and remaining stress from Sino-American trade disputes combined to provide negative pressure on canola. In addition, Chinese infections of African swine fever might be lowering overall feed demand in that country, weakening potential imports of soybeans from non-American shippers. However, that would require infections of large-scale hog barns, versus smaller, open-housed animal operations and it is not clear if that is the case in China’s ASF infections.

Some USDA news will come out during the holiday weekend, with USDA weekly export reports, however those are largely expected to show improved American soybean sales to non-Chinese buyers.

The Ukraine is expected to export about 19 percent more wheat this crop year than last says that country’s agriculture ministry, however its exports year over year, so far, are not keeping that pace and are down about seven percent compared with last season at this time.

U.S. spring wheat prices have remained relatively strong and showed some improvement ahead of the holiday close, rising 2.25 U.S. cents yesterday, finishing that day at US$ 5.7075.

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