Global rice production forecast to decrease

19.08.2016

Global trading prices declined over the past month, largely due to a lack of fresh demand.
 
The U.S. 2016-17 supply forecast was lowered slightly this month due to a smaller carry-in and a fractional reduction in the crop forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) said in an Aug. 16 report. Despite the downward revision, total U.S. rice supplies are forecast at a record 307.7 million cwts, up 16% from a year earlier. There were no revisions to the use side of the 2016-17 balance, with total use still projected at a record 253 million cwts, 12% above a year earlier. Projected U.S. ending stocks for 2016-17 of 54.7 million cwts are the highest since 1985-86. The U.S. season-average farm price forecasts for 2016-17 for both classes of rice were lowered this month, according to the ERS.
 
The 2016-17 global production forecast was lowered fractionally to 481.1 million tonnes, the highest on record. According to the report, production forecasts were lowered this month for Afghanistan, Bolivia, and Bangladesh, but raised for Iran. The 2016-17 global consumption forecast was lowered 1.4 million tonnes to 478.8 million tonnes, with India accounting for most of the downward revision. The 2016-17 global ending stocks forecast was raised 6.5 million tonnes, to 113.8 million tonnes, up 2.3 million from a year earlier, the ERS said.

Global rice trade in 2017 was projected at 40.6 million tonnes, up just 0.1 million tonnes from the previous forecast, but almost 2% below a year earlier and the third consecutive year of decline, the ERS said. India’s 2017 export forecast was raised while Vietnam’s was lowered. Global trading prices declined over the past month, largely due to a lack of fresh demand, according to the ERS. U.S. milled rice prices continue to fall as well.


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