Hopes for Brazil's record soy and safrinha corn crops raised again


The Brazilian government crop agency Conab raised its forecast for the country's corn and soybean crop, thanks to good conditions.

Conab lifted its forecast for the second-season corn crop, which is sowed after the early soybean harvest, by 1.94m tonnes, to 61.61m tonnes.

The increase was led by upgrades in Matto Grosso and Parana.

Good yields, despite late sowings

Production in Mato Grosso was seen at 24.20m tonnes, up some 780,000 tonnes from Conab's previous forecast, despite the slow pace of the harvest.

"In Mato Grosso only in the first half of March the planting of the second crop reached 100%, missing the ideal window recommended for sowing the crop due to delay in the soybean harvest," Conab said.

But yield ideas were still lifted, due to good weather and progress.

"With predicted favourable climatic conditions, an average yield of 5,679 kg per hectare is projected, compared to the 3,999 kilogramme per hectare in the 2015-16 crop, representing an expected increase of 42% in relation to the previous year," Conab said.

And production ideas in Parana, the second ranked growing state, were lifted by some 500,000 tonnes, to 12.67m tonnes.

Soybean crop upgrade

Conab also lifted ideas for the country's soybean harvest, to 110.2m tonnes, up 2.54m tonnes from last month's forecast, and well ahead of the 108m tonnes forecast by the US Department of Agriculture.

But the forecast is a touch behind the largest analyst estimates, which have ranged up to 113m tonnes.

The bigger forecast was driven by a big upgrade to ideas of the crop in Rio Grande de Sol, by 1.67m tonnes.

"Favourable climatic conditions, with a good distribution of rainfall, associated with technological factors such as the genetic advance in pest and disease resistance, together with the producers' efforts to carry out preventive treatments, should determine an increase in average productivity, as well as guarantee optimum quality if harvested grain," Conab said.


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