IGC again lifts grains forecast for 2018-19

25.05.2018

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for total grains production in 2018-19 to 2.089 billion tonnes, up from 2.088 billion tonnes in April but down from 2.091 billion tonnes forecast for 2017-18.

Total grains consumption is forecast at 2.136 billion tonnes, down from 2.139 billion tonnes in April and compared with 2.108 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

The forecast for total grains carryover stocks was lowered to 556 million tonnes, down from 560 million tonnes as the April forecast and down from 602 million tonnes in 2017-18.

“Total grains production in 2018-19 is projected to be only a little below the season before as a reduced wheat harvest is almost balanced by better outturns of maize, barley and sorghum,” the IGC said. “However, taking account of reduced opening stocks, total supply is set to decline to a three-year low. Another year of consumption growth is anticipated, with food, feed and industrial uses all expected to expand. The global carryover is therefore seen coming down for a second year, taking inventories to a four-season low.”

Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 1.055 billion tonnes, up from 1.054 billion tonnes in April and up from 1.044 billion tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 1.098 billion tonnes, down from 1.099 billion tonnes in April and compared with 1.074 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 742 million tonnes, up from 739 million tonnes a month ago and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption is forecast a bit higher, at 746 million tonnes compared with 745 million tonnes in April and 740 million tonnes a year ago.

Soybean production in 2018-19 is forecast at 356 million tonnes, up from 355 million tonnes in April and 336 million tonnes in 2017-18, while consumption is forecast at 356 million tonnes, down from 357 million tonnes forecast a month ago but up from 345 million tonnes a year ago.

Rice production in 2018-19 is forecast at 490 million tonnes, down from 493 million tonnes in April but up from 488 million tonnes in 2017-18. Rice consumption also is forecast lower, at 491 million tonnes, which compares with 493 million tonnes in April and 488 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) decreased 0.1%, the IGC said.

“Global grains, rice and oilseeds markets exhibited mixed trends over the past four weeks,” the IGC said. “World milling wheat values strengthened on occasionally difficult cropping weather, but with soybean and maize quotations lower, the IGC GOI was unchanged m/m. Price direction was also influenced by currency fluctuations and the latest developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations.”



World Grain
 

Readers choice: TOP-5 articles of the month by UkrAgroConsult