IGC again lifts grains output forecast

22.01.2018

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Jan. 18 raised its forecast for total grains production in 2017-18 to 2.1 billion tonnes, up from 2.079 billion tonnes in November, but down from 2.14 billion forecast for 2016-17. Total consumption was lowered to 2.104 billion tonnes from 2.107 billion tonnes.

“Most of the change is for wheat (including for Russia, Canada, Argentina and Australia) and maize (the E.U., the U.S., China, Nigeria and Ethiopia),” the IGC said. “Mainly because of adjustments to historical figures for maize in China, the forecast for world total grains stocks is boosted sharply from before, to 617 million tonnes, although this still represents the first contraction in five years. The projection for trade is up by 1 million tonnes, at 360 million, an increase of 2% y/y (year-on-year).

The IGC forecast world wheat production in 2017-18 at 757 million tonnes, up from 749 million tonnes in November and up from 755 million tonnes forecast in 2016-17. World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 254 million tonnes, up from 249 million tonnes in November and up from 241 million tonnes in 2016-17.

“Trade is seen at a record, bolstered by growing import needs in Africa and Asia, including in India,” the IGC said.

The IGC forecast 2017-18 maize production at 1.054 billion tonnes, up from 1.040 billion tonnes in November and compared with 1.088 billion tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection was lowered to 1.068 billion tonnes from 1.069 billion tonnes.

Soybean production for 2017-18 was forecast at 349 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from 348 million tonnes in November, but down from 350 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 352 million tonnes. The IGC said global trade is expected to total 153 million tonnes, the same as forecast in November.

The 2017-18 world outturn for rice is expected to total 484 million tonnes, up from 482 million tonnes forecast in November. Consumption is forecast to increase, to 485 million tonnes from 484 million tonnes.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) decreased 1%, the IGC said.

“Net gains in rice and barley prices were linked primarily to solid export demand, while firmer maize quotations stemmed from a mixture of logistical difficulties and prolonged dry weather in Argentina,” the IGC said. “With oilseed traders focusing on a promising outlook for Brazil, average soybean values touched a six-month low in January. Amid heavy spot supplies, wheat markets remained generally weak.”


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