IGC raises global grain forecast behind gains in wheat and maize

01.11.2016

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Oct. 27 raised its forecast for world wheat production in 2016-17 to 748 million tonnes, up from its September forecast of 747 million tonnes and compared with the record outturn of 735.8 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 233 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous projection issued in September and up 11 million tonnes from 222 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC also raised its projection for total grains production to 2.077 billion tonnes, up from 2.069 billion tonnes a month ago, and up from 2.003 billion in 2015-16.

Total consumption was raised to 2.054 billion tonnes from 2.049 billion tonnes.

“A rise in feed demand accounts for about half of the projected 72-million-tonne gain in grains consumption, to 2,054 million,” the IGC noted. “Feeding of maize is seen climbing by 32 million tonnes to the highest ever, while a 5-million-tonne increase is projected for wheat.”

The IGC forecast 2016-17 maize production at 1.035 billion tonnes, up from 1.027 billion tonnes in September and compared with 971 million tonnes in 2015-16. The consumption projection was raised to 1.023 billion tonnes from 1.019 billion tonnes a month ago.

Increases in the United States and Brazil led the IGC to project an increase in 2016-17 world soybean production, to 332 million tonnes, from 329 million a month ago. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 332 million tonnes from 331 million. The IGC said global trade is expected to climb to a record 138 million tonnes.

The 2016-17 world outturn for rice is expected to total 484 million tonnes, up from 482 million a month ago. The IGC said the increase reflects upgraded outlooks for some Asian products, including India.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by nearly 2% behind gains for maize and soybeans, the IGC said.

“After dropping sharply in September, maize and soybean export quotations posted gains, underpinned by strong overseas demand and supportive technical influences,” the IGC said. “Wheat values were mostly unchanged m/m, anchored by heavy supplies, while rice prices recorded further losses on a generally weak global demand profile.


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