IGC raises global grains production forecast

29.11.2017

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Nov. 23 raised its forecast for total grains production in 2017-18 to 2.079 billion tonnes, up from 2.075 billion tonnes in October, but down from 2.134 billion forecast for 2016-17. Total consumption was raised to 2.107 billion tonnes from 2.104 billion tonnes.

“Most of the change from before is for maize, including an upward revision for the U.S. crop,” the IGC said. “Increased feed/residual use (mainly USA, EU, Canada, Russia and China) absorbs part of the supply boost, and the figure for world carryover stocks is raised by 3 million tonnes, to 496 million. While this would be the first contraction in five years (down 28 million tonnes year over year), inventories are expected to be the second largest ever. There are only minor adjustments for trade projections, with all grains trade still placed at a peak of 359 million tonnes, up by 2% y/y, led by the ninth annual expansion for maize in succession.”

The IGC forecast world wheat production in 2017-18 at 749 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from October but down from 754 million tonnes forecast in 2016-17. World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 249 million tonnes, unchanged from October but up from 242 million tonnes in 2016-17.

The IGC forecast 2017-18 maize production at 1.040 billion tonnes, up from 1.034 billion tonnes in October and compared with 1.079 billion tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection was raised to 1.069 billion tonnes from 1.067 billion tonnes in October.
 
Soybean production for 2017-18 was forecast at 348 million tonnes, unchanged from October but down from 350 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was lowered to 352 million tonnes from 353 million tonnes. The IGC said global trade is expected to total 153 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the October forecast.

The 2017-18 world outturn for rice is expected to total 482 million tonnes, unchanged from the forecast in October. Consumption is forecast to fall, to 484 million tonnes from 485 million tonnes.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased 1%, the IGC said.

“World grains, oilseeds and rice export prices traded in a narrow range during November, with supply and demand fundamentals mostly already factored into markets,” the IGC said. “After rebounding from a mid-month dip, the IGC GOI ended 1% higher. Buoyed by gains in South America, maize values exhibited the largest change, rising by almost 2% to a three-month peak. The soybean and rice indices also firmed slightly, while wheat was broadly steady. Barley edged lower in mostly quiet activity.”


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