IGC raises grains output outlook for 2018-19

03.05.2018

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecast total grains production at 2.088 billion tonnes in 2018-19, up from 2.087 billion in March but down from 2.093 billion tonnes forecast for 2017-18.

Total grains consumption is forecast at 2.139 billion tonnes, up from 2.134 billion tonnes in March and compared with 2.108 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

Total grains carryover stocks is forecast at 560 million tonnes, unchanged from the March forecast but down from 611 million tonnes in 2017-18.

Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 1.054 billion tonnes, up from 1.052 billion in March and up from 1.046 billion tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 1.099 billion tonnes, up from 1.094 billion tonnes in March and compared with 1.075 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 739 million tonnes, down from 741 million tonnes forecast a month ago and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption is forecast a bit higher, at 745 million tonnes compared with 744 million tonnes in March and 740 million tonnes a year ago.

Soybean production in 2018-19 is forecast at 355 million tonnes, up from 354 million tonnes in March and 339 million tonnes in 2017-18, while consumption is forecast at 357 million tonnes, down from 358 million tonnes forecast a month ago but up from 347 million tonnes a year ago.

Rice production in 2018-19 is forecast at 493 million tonnes, up from 492 million tonnes in March and up from 486 million tonnes in 2017-18. Rice consumption also is forecast higher, at 493 million tonnes, which compares with 491 million tonnes in March and 487 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased 4%, the IGC said.

“Building on solid advances in export prices since the start of the year, world grains, rice, and oilseeds quotations strengthened further during April, with the IGC GOI up by 4% m/m,” the IGC said. “While a weaker tone was evident in most markets in the second part of the month, the Index remains 17% above year-ago levels.

“Strength was attributed to spells of adverse weather, as well as logistical difficulties and robust export demand in some countries. Traders were also evaluating potential ramifications of an escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China.”


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