In 2017 the export of agricultural products from Russia will exceed $20.5 billion

08.12.2017

By the end of 2017 Russia will put abroad a record amount of agricultural products — a total of more than us $20.5 bn (in 2016 and $17 billion)

Such a forecast at the XVII annual conference on investments in agriculture "agricultural holdings of Russia — 2017" organized by the magazine "Agroinvestor", said the Director of the analytical center "Sovekon" Andrei Sizov. Exports, in his view, remains the main driver of growth of the agricultural sector. This year, despite an increase in production in many agricultural sectors, agriculture will add no more than 2-3%, he said.

"This is a good, but modest results, — said Sizov. — Especially in comparison with the previous figures. For example, last year the industry showed an increase of almost 5%." Among the main reasons for the slowdown — a stronger ruble and reduction of prices due to record harvest of basic grains. According to "SovEcon", most of the grain fell in the Volga region by 30-40%. In the Central regions of the country fell by about 20%, and in the South — 10-15%. At the same time the main beneficiaries of the situation in the current season will be the ports, elevators and carriers of grain, the expert believes. This will allow them to invest in the development of their business.

The growth of investment activity in agriculture in 2017 is also slowed down and may be only about 2%. The main problem of business stagnation of demand in the stabilization of consumers ' income. According to Sizov, a marked increase in food consumption should not be. "By world standards we already eat pretty good, he says. Global drivers of demand growth it is hard to see".

Although the volume of export of agricultural products increased, the share of Russia in world exports remains insignificant. The main Russian export commodity — grain occupies in the overall trade in the world only 6%. As for the other products, the share of our country's export of fish and oil is less than 3%, meal — about 2%, meat — less than 1%. The world's largest exporters at the end of 2016 — the United States and the European Union (more than $130 billion), and Brazil and China (over $60 billion). "Russia has something to strive", — said Sizov.

However, the growth rate of world trade in the next 10 years will decrease, the expert said. So, the forecast of FAO, the largest decline is expected for pork. If during the period 2005-2015, the export volume of this product in the world increased by 41%, in 2016-2026's growth of pork imports will not exceed 1%. Significantly reduced the rate of wheat from 68% to 10%, and poultry — from 60% to 14%. At the same time, pay attention Sizov, milk and dairy products will be stored a pretty good rate of 23.5% over the period 2016-2026, compared with 41% in 2005-2015.


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