Key factors influencing agricultural markets include policies of China's, Russia’s and the US leaders - Philippe Chalmin (video)

20.04.2017

The key factors influencing agricultural markets include the policies of China’s and Russia’s leaders on the one hand and the U.S. leader’s policy on the other. This was suggested by French economist, founding chairman of CyclOpe commodity research institute, Philippe Chalmin,  within the XIV International Conference "Black Sea Grain: Wind of Change".

In his presentation“East wind, west wind. Donald, Xi, Vladimir and others,” speaker drew attention to a so-called “supercycle” of 2006-2014: a business activity slowdown in almost all the economic sectors during the 2007-2008 crisis with a following upturn, build-up of production to the pre-crisis level and relative stabilization of economic indicators.

“However, the supercycle is over and now we’ll have to deal with a rather long period of low prices, including those for agricultural produce,” Ph. Chalmin noted

In the analyst’s opinion, the next price rally should be expected by the late 2020’s. Decisive factor of the world’s agricultural markets will become growing demand from India and (or) Africa. No stability is to be expected before that time, the speaker emphasized.

Addressing the subject of the “world management”, Ph. Chalmin said that it is currently absent – at least at the level of a “single center” – and called upon the audience to “watch Donald and Xi” (evidently, meaning the U.S. and China presidents).

XIV International Conference “Black Sea Grain: Wind of Change” took place on April 5-6, 2017 in Kiev, Ukraine, and brought together over 700 agribusiness operators from 55 countries worldwide. Organizer – consulting agency UkrAgroConsult.  

 

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