Key Wasde statistics - and how they matched up to traders' forecasts
09.02.2018
Wheat’s rally suffered a reversal on Thursday after the US Department of Agriculture, in its monthly Wasde briefing, raised its estimate for domestic stocks at the close of 2017-18, citing weakened export prospects.
The soybean stocks estimates saw an even bigger upgrade, for the same reason. But in corn, at least, the USDA sees US fortunes improving.
Below the key data, their change on previous USDA estimates, and on market expectations as gleaned by Reuters polls.
| USDA forecasts for crop inventories at the close of 2017-18 | |||
| February 8 forecast | Change from previous forecast | Difference from market expectation | |
|
US corn
|
2.352bn bushels | -125m bushels | -116m bushels |
|
World corn
|
203.09m tonnes | -3.48m tonnes | -1.57m tonnes |
|
US soybeans
|
530m bushels | +60m bushels | +44m bushels |
|
World soybeans
|
98.57m tonnes | +250,000 tonnes | +54m tonnes |
|
US wheat
|
1.009bn bushels | +20m bushels | +19m bushels |
|
World wheat
|
266.10m tonnes | -1.92m tonnes | -1.7m tonnes |
| USDA estimates for South American corn, soybean production 2017-18 | |||
| January 12 forecast | Change from previous forecast | Difference from market expectation | |
| Brazilian corn | 95.0m tonnes | Unchanged | +1.27m tonnes |
|
Brazilian soybeans
|
112.0m tonnes | +2.0m tonnes | +800,000 tonnes |
|
Argentine corn
|
39.0m tonnes | -3.0m tonnes | -1.68m tonnes |
|
Argentine soybeans |
54.0m tonnes | -2.0m tonnes | -60,000 tonnes |
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