Key Wasde statistics - and how they matched up to traders' forecasts

09.02.2018

Wheat’s rally suffered a reversal on Thursday after the US Department of Agriculture, in its monthly Wasde briefing, raised its estimate for domestic stocks at the close of 2017-18, citing weakened export prospects.

 

The soybean stocks estimates saw an even bigger upgrade, for the same reason. But in corn, at least, the USDA sees US fortunes improving.

 

Below the key data, their change on previous USDA estimates, and on market expectations as gleaned by Reuters polls.

 

 

USDA forecasts for crop inventories at the close of 2017-18
  February 8 forecast Change from previous forecast Difference from market expectation

US corn

 

2.352bn bushels -125m bushels -116m bushels

World corn

 

203.09m tonnes -3.48m tonnes -1.57m tonnes

US soybeans

 

530m bushels +60m bushels +44m bushels

World soybeans

 

98.57m tonnes +250,000 tonnes +54m tonnes

US wheat

 

1.009bn bushels +20m bushels +19m bushels

World wheat

 

266.10m tonnes -1.92m tonnes -1.7m tonnes

 

USDA estimates for South American corn, soybean production 2017-18
  January 12 forecast Change from previous forecast Difference from market expectation
Brazilian corn 95.0m tonnes Unchanged +1.27m tonnes

Brazilian soybeans

 

112.0m tonnes +2.0m tonnes +800,000 tonnes

Argentine corn

 

39.0m tonnes -3.0m tonnes -1.68m tonnes

Argentine soybeans

54.0m tonnes -2.0m tonnes -60,000 tonnes

 

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