Large 2016 U.S. production of corn, soybeans and wheat

13.09.2016

The U.S. expects to raise high quantity/good quality crops in 2016.

Corn production is forecast at a record 15.1 billion bushels, based on the Sept. 12 Crop Production report. The number is down 61 million bushels from the August report.

Corn yields are expected to average 174.4 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the August forecast but up 6 bushels from 2015.

Traders were expecting corn production would be down 2 bushels from August to September, said Randy Martinson of Agvice. Martinson spoke on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange crop report conference call.

The 2016 corn carryout number is dropped by 25 million bushels -- from the August report -- to 2.384 billion bushels. The average farm gate price for 2016 corn was raised a nickel to $2.90-$3.50 per bushel compared with the August estimate.

“Feed saw a decline of 25 million bushels that followed through into the use,” said Martinson. The 2.384 billion bushel carryout was about 140 million bushels more than expected by the trade.

“Overall, looking at this corn number, it was maybe a little bit negative as far as the trade was concerned.”

The U.S. 2015 soybean ending stocks number was dropped to 195 million bushels, but the 2016 ending stocks number was raised 35 million bushels to 365 million bushels. That number was about 35 million bushels more than the trade was expecting.

“There was a bigger increase than what we were expecting for production,” he said. “That was a little negative for the trade. We saw that offset by some ‘use’ numbers – crush was increased by 10 million bushels, exports by 35 million, for a net increase of 45 million bushels.”

The U.S. soybean yield is expected to average a record 50.6 bushels per acre across 83 million acres. The U.S. will likely produce a record 4.2 billion bushels of soybeans this year.

Soybeans are expected to average a nickel lower to $8.30-$9.80 per bushel across the United States.

Lower production is forecast for Brazil, India and Canada, while soybean production is higher in China, as well as the United States. Global oilseed stocks are slightly higher based on increase in ending stocks of rapeseed in Canada and increased soybean stocks in the U.S., according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report.

Spring wheat saw a decrease of 10 million bushels in exports to 280 million bushels.

Spring wheat ending stocks jumped to 248 million bushels.

Wheat numbers were left unchanged, with beginning stocks of 981 million bushels and production at 2.3 billion bushels. Use for food was 968 million bushels, seed was 69 million bushels, feed and residual was 330 million bushels. With exports of 950 million bushels, the ending stocks were left at 1.1 billion bushels.

The average farm gate price for 2016 wheat was lowered a nickel to $3.30-$3.90 per bushel.

World wheat production shows higher production in Australia, Canada and Russia, with lower production in China and the EU.

“These are all some major areas of interest,” Martinson said.


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