Markets for Ukrainian grain in season 2016/17

21.07.2016

Elizaveta Malyshkois a grain market leading expert of "UkrAgroConsult"

 

In 2016 Ukrainian farmers may gather one of the richest grain harvests. Amid low world prices and strong competition, the issue of new markets searching becomes highly important.

 

Wheat. Considerable increase in imports is expected from several countries: Egypt, Korea, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Morocco.

 

Growing demand of Korea for wheat imports provides Ukrainian grain exporters with good opportunity to secure a foothold in this market. Last season Ukraine covered nearly 25% of Korea’s wheat demand, mainly of feed quality.

Morocco may increase imports due to acute reduction of own wheat production. Imports may reach 5-5.5 MMT, about 10% of which will be covered by Ukrainian grain. Ukraine supplies about 0.5 MMT of wheat to Morocco annually.

 

In 2016 Saudi Arabia intends to complete transition to full import dependence and stop growing wheat due to water deficit and high grain cultivation cost. Import needs of the country will increase by 15%, compared with the previous marketing year. Traditionally, Saudi Arabia buys wheat from EU countries. Grain imports from Ukraine are represented by barley, while wheat is purchased in very small quantities.

 

Thailand, which was the number one in Ukrainian wheat buyers ranking in the 2015/16 season, may lose its leading position due to expected reduction of import demand by 1 MMT compared to last year.

 

Ukrainian grain has weak position in Turkish market. Last season only 2-3% of imported wheat was of Ukrainian origin. The tendency is likely to continue in a new season, due to forecasted increase in production and exports of Russian grain, which dominates in Turkish market.

 

Wheat imports, KMT

Largest buyers of Ukrainian wheat

Other large buyers

Country

2015/16

2016/17

Country

2015/16

2016/17

Egypt

11500

12000

China

3300

3500

Bangladesh

4600

4700

India

470

2000

Korea

4400

5000

Turkey

4300

4800

Morocco

4700

5000

Saudi Arabia

3000

3500

The Philippines

4500

4800

Syria

1100

1300

Indonesia

9600

9100

Ethiopia

3200

1800

EU

6700

5500

Iran

3400

1000

Thailand

4800

3800

Tunisia

2000

1700

World, total

167 182

164 197

 

*- Source: USDA

 

Full version of the article (corn and barley markets) is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

 

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