PHL rice output to hit 19.4 MMT

22.11.2017

The country’s paddy production for 2017 would settle at 19.4 million metric tons (MMT), 10.11 percent higher than the 18.15 MMT produced last year, according to the latest report of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The PSA said in the October round of its report, titled “Rice and Corn Situation Outlook,” the projected paddy output of 7.45 MMT in the October-to-December period would allow the Philippines to end the year with a bigger rice supply.

“Probable palay production for the October-to-December period may surpass the 2016 level by 6.26 percent. The anticipated increment in output may be attributed to increase in yield resulting from sustained use of high-yielding varieties coupled with sufficient water supply during the early stages of crop development,” the PSA report read.

The PSA said its forecast for the fourth quarter was based on standing crop. Despite the contraction in harvest area to 1.86 million hectares, from last year’s record of 1.88 million hectares, the report noted that yield per hectare may improve by nearly 6 percent to 3.99 metric tons (MT), from 3.73 MT last year.

“Substantial increments in output may be anticipated in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Bicol region and Central Visayas,” the report read.

“Probable growths in production may be attributed to possible increase in yield in most regions except Western Visayas, Davao region, Caraga and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao [ARMM]. This may be attributed to sustained use of high-yielding varieties coupled with sufficient water supply/rainfall,” it added.

Because of the projected hike in fourth quarter output, the PSA added paddy production in the second half of the year would reach 10.84 MMT, 8.61 percent higher than the 9.98 MMT produced in 2016.

“Harvest area may expand by 3.46 percent to 2.72 million hectares, from 2.63 million hectares. Yield per hectare may rise to 3.99 MT or by 4.98 percent, from 3.8 MT,” the report read.

For the whole of 2017, the improvement in yield is expected to settle at 4.03 MT per hectare, from last year’s 3.87 MT, while harvest area would expand to 4.81 million hectares.

Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the PSA said paddy output in the first quarter of 2018 would go up by nearly 3 percent to 4.53 MMT, from 4.41 MMT recorded in the same
period in 2017.

“Probable increments in production may be expected among regions except CAR, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and the ARMM,” the report read.

The PSA report also noted that corn production for calendar year 2017 would rise by 9.72 percent to 7.92 MMT. Data showed this was due to the 30-percent hike in output in the first half of the year.

The PSA noted that the July-to-December output may decline to 4.22 MMT, from last year’s 4.39 MMT, or by 3.79 percent. This is becase harvest is seen contracting to 1.45 million hectares, from 1.58 million hectares last year. However, yield may improve by 4.89 percent to 2.91 MT per hectare, from last year’s 2.77 MT.

“The October-to-December 2017 forecasts based on standing crop, production and harvest area may decline by 5.41 percent and 7.81 percent, from their respective levels in 2016. Yield per hectare may improve by 1.26 percent to 2.88 MT, from 2.8 MT,” the report read.

According to the PSA, corn output in the January-to-March period next year would rise by 5.45 percent to 2.5 MMT, from 2.37 MMT in the first quarter of 2017.

“Harvest area is foreseen to be larger by 6.17 percent—from 6,960 hectares to 7,390 hectares. Yield per hectare may diminish from 3.4 MT to 3.38 MT in 2018,” the report read.

In the first quarter of 2018, the PSA expects production increases in Cagayan Valley, Northern Mindanao, and Soccsksargen.

The PSA said estimates and forecasts of production and harvest area of palay and corn are generated from the Quarterly Palay and Corn Production Survey of which there are four survey rounds in a year.


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