Rabi crop 2016-17: government forecasts 3.1 percent increase in overall fertiliser off-take


The government has forecast 3.1 percent increase in the overall off-take of fertiliser for Rabi crop 2016-17 as compared to the previous Rabi season. According to an official document of Ministry of National Food Security and Research, government has estimated total fertiliser off-take for Rabi season 2016-17 at 4 million tons against 3.9 million tons in the preceding Rabi season, which is 3.1 percent higher than Rabi 2015-16.

Total off-take of DAP fertiliser is estimated at one million tons, which is 30.9 percent less than the Rabi season 2015-17; and total urea off-take is estimated at 3 million tons, which is projected to be 23.4 percent higher than Rabi season 2015-16. According to the document, out of a total of 1 million tons estimated off-take of DAP, Punjab will consume 0.75 million tons, Sindh 0.22 million tons, Khyber Pakhtunkwa, 40,000 tons and Balochistan 20,000 tons.

Out of a total of 3 million tons urea off-take, consumption of urea in Punjab is estimated at over 2 million tons, Sindh 0.76 million tons, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.15 million tons, and Balochistan 40,000 tones. The Rabi season will also witness an increase of 11.6 percent in off-take of potash (SOP/MOP) fertiliser.

The Rabi season 2016-17 will begin with about 1.3 million tons of available urea. Total availability of urea will be about 3.85 million tons and 2.5 million tons will be from domestic production. According to the document, the availability of DAP will be 0.772 million tons including 0.4 million tons of opening balance and 0.37 million tons of local production. The off take of DAP is 0.9 million tons leaving a negative estimated inventory of 0.213 million ton as closing balance.

Total availability of potash fertilisers (SOP/MOP) will be 13,000 tons against expected off-take of 15,000 tons. Supply and demand gap in DAP and SOP/MOP will be met by imports through private sector during Rabi season 2016-17. According to the document, during Kharif season 2016 total urea off-take is estimated at 2.9 million tons that shows an increase of 19.6 percent over the previous Kharif season. In Kharif season 2016, DAP off-take increased by 57.4 percent to 0.65 million tons from 0.41 million for Kharif season 2015.

Kharif season 2016 opened with a balance of about 1.2 million tons of urea. Domestic production was around 3 million tons and total availability remained around 4.21 million tons. The availability of DAP is estimated at around 1.1 million tons including 0.253 million tons of opening balance, 0.415 million tons local production and 0.32 million tons of imported supplies. The off-take of DAP was 0.65 million tons leaving an estimated inventory of 0.402 million tons as closing balance. Total availability of potash fertilisers (SOP/MOP) was 23,000 thousands tons against off-take of 10,000 tons, leaving a closing balance of 13,000 tons, the document revealed.


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