Readers Choice: TOP - 5 Articles of April

11.05.2017

UkrAgroConsult is bringing to your notice the TOP-5 of opinion pieces of April 2017. Please read more detailed exclusive material by UkrAgroConsult in the “Expert Opinion” section. Their April rating was as follows:

1.    Will French wheat lose for a second season in a row?

2.    Russia able to retain its top position in world wheat exports

3.    South America and its new corn crop: a price apocalypse is coming!

4.   Triumph of the Black Sea region: for how long?

5.    SAILING WITH THE WIND OF CHANGE: Report on “Black Sea Grain” conference

1.    Will French wheat lose for a second season in a row?

Author – Olena Hesova

According to the European Commission’s estimates, EU countries will ship 8.7 MMT less wheat to third countries for the whole current season than a year ago: about 24 MMT against 32.7 MMT in MY 2015/16. This drop will be accounted for mostly by lower exports from France.

At the same time, other exporting EU countries, including Romania, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, managed to supply additional volumes to their key markets, France’s markets, and open up new vistas for themselves. It is worth noting that the Black Sea countries have also succeeded in increasing their presence in the EU market.

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2.    Russia able to retain its top position in world wheat exports

Author – Marina Sych

Just a couple months are left till the end of the current season, but Russia still keeps the world market intrigued about the grain export plan fulfillment.

All the market participants, including the Ag Ministry, have already repeatedly reduced their forecasts for Russian 2016/17 grain exports, including those of wheat. However, March’s shipments appear to have kept up hopes for overachieving the export target, at least for exceeding last season’s volume, though part of the market have already questioned this fact as well.

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3.    South America and its new corn crop: a price apocalypse is coming!

Author – Olena Hesova

The current corn export season has both benefits and drawbacks for Ukraine. So, for instance, exports to the EU are somewhat slower than last year, but Ukrainian traders are gaining ground in other markets, such as Egypt, South Korea, Iran and South Africa. They manage to realize Ukraine’s high export potential due to easing competition from Brazil in the first half of 2016/17 in view of shrinking Brazilian inventories of 2016-crop corn.

Moreover, in the seven months of the current season (September-March), Ukraine outpaces by far Brazil in terms of overall export shipments. So, in the period under review, Brazil slashed corn exports actually four times to 8.16 MMT. Ukraine outstrips last year: 13.5 MMT against 12.2 MMT in September-March a year ago.

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4.    Triumph of the Black Sea region: for how long?

Author – Liza Malyshko

The Black Sea region has been enhancing its presence in the world grain market since as early as the late 1990’s. However, the region’s role became particularly noticeable over the last few years.

The Black Sea share in global exports holds at over 20% since 2013/14, making it possible to safely call this a triumph of the Black Sea region on the world grain floor. Moreover, the global grain trade upturn is in many respects promoted by the Black Sea region, especially in the past marketing year of 2016/17.

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5.    SAILING WITH THE WIND OF CHANGE: Report on “Black Sea Grain” conference

SAILING WITH THE WIND OF CHANGE - this motto was worked out by agribusiness captains at the XIV International Conference “Black Sea Grain-2017”, a major international forum recognized by global grain &oilseed producers and exporters. The conference, organized by UkrAgroConsult, was held on April 5-6 at InterContinental Hotel, Kyiv, Ukraine.

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