Readers Choice: TOP - 5 Articles of the February

17.03.2017

UkrAgroConsult is bringing to your notice the TOP-5 of opinion pieces of February 2017. Please read more detailed exclusive material by UkrAgroConsult in the “Expert Opinion” section. Their February rating was as follows:

1. Bulgaria expanding markets for its wheat

2. Record grain exports from Russia: to be or not to be?

3. Race hasn’t started yet but it’s already lost

4. Ukrainian sunseed meal ousting soybean meal in Pakistan’s market

5. Ukraine. State regulation of prices becoming history

More information on agrimarkets of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market reports "Black Sea Grain & Oil" and "Black Sea Vegoils & CIS" by UkrAgroConsult.

1. Bulgaria expanding markets for its wheat

Author – Marina Sych

The year of 2016 was successful for Bulgarian wheat. The nation got the highest yield and reached a record total wheat crop of 5.65 MMT, or up 16% from 2015 and up almost 5% from the previous high hit in 2013.

Export shipments in 2016/17 are also expected to be record high. UkrAgroConsult forecasts Bulgaria’s 2016/17 wheat exports at some 4 MMT. According to our estimates, Bulgaria has realized 83% of its wheat export potential to date.

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2. Record grain exports from Russia: to be or not to be?

Author – Marina Sych

Last week’s most important news included another adjustment in the Russian Ag Ministry’s forecast for 2016/17 grain exports from the country.

One of the most optimistic grain export forecasts available in the market, including the Ag Ministry’s prediction, was voiced at 40 MMT back in the beginning of the current season. However, under pressure from a slow pace of Russian grain exports in Q1 2016/17, the Agriculture Ministry has cut its grain export estimate for November 2016 at once by 5 MMT to 35 MMT. Now the ministry has somewhat adjusted its forecast, having raised its upper limit to 37 MMT (the Ag Ministry’s forecast for Russian grain exports currently equals 35 37 MMT).

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3.    Race hasn’t started yet but it’s already lost

Author – Maksym Kharchenko

On January 18, the direct container train from China arrived to cargo railway station in London for the first time ever. The PRC once again demonstrated its interest in European markets expansion. The route Yiwu-London went through 7 countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Poland, Germany, Belgium and France. It is noted that London became the 15th city that received the direct rail link with China within the project "New Silk Road" through the Trans-Siberian Railway. During 18 days the train covered the distance of 12 thousand kilometers, while the standard container transporting cost equaled USD 4,600.

It should be noted that the railway delivery is twice faster than shipment by sea. Containers would reach the destination point during 30-35 days by sea. But it is worth considering that delivery cost by sea is twice cheaper. How this news threaten Ukraine?

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4. Ukrainian sunseed meal ousting soybean meal in Pakistan’s market

Author – Olena Hesova

Gradual economic growth (+4.6% in 2016) is under way in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populated country (196 Ml people in 2016). Consequently, incomes of its population in is on the rise, too. This fuels a steady increase in demand for animal and dairy products in the country.

At the same time, the Pakistani agricultural sector is unable to completely provide the required volume of feed components because of climate peculiarities.

As a number of high protective duties have been imposed on corn and wheat imports, oilseeds and oilseed meals are in strong demand from Pakistan.

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5. Ukraine. State regulation of prices becoming history

Author – Svetlana Kupreeva

A pilot project was in effect in Ukraine from October - December 2016, under which the government “let go” prices for socially sensitive goods. As a reminder, a regulation had been in force since as early as 2007 that made it mandatory to declare price raises for all socially sensitive foods by more than 1% a month, i.e. the producers were obliged to receive permit for changing the price. The government resolution No. 656 of September 22, 2016 suspended this regulation for the period from October 1, 2016 till January 1, 2017.

Getting back on topic of retail trade in fat-and-oil products, UkrAgroConsult will analyze the behavior sunoil prices in this period.

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Readers choice: TOP-10 articles of 2016 by UkrAgroConsult