Readers Choice: TOP - 5 Articles of March

18.04.2017

UkrAgroConsult is bringing to your notice the TOP-5 of opinion pieces of March 2017. Please read more detailed exclusive material by UkrAgroConsult in the “Expert Opinion” section. Their March rating was as follows:

1.    Romania: are rapeseed production and exports to hit another high in 2017/18?

2.    Ukraine leaves Asian wheat markets

3.    Ukraine managed to open new markets in view of shrinking deliveries to the EU

4.    Ukraine. A year of life in the free trade area with the EU: trading pattern

5.    Ukraine to press Russia in the Turkish vegoil market

1.    Romania: are rapeseed production and exports to hit another high in 2017/18?

Author – Olena Hesova

The European Commission estimates that the 2017/18 season will be more successful for the EU in respect of rapeseed production. The European rapeseed harvest may rise to 22.13 MMT (20 MMT in 2016/17) owing to favorable weather conditions in the top producing countries along with an expansion of this crop’s planted area to 6620 Th ha (6493 Th ha this season).

Thus, in the new season, the EU will be able to reduce imports from third countries by 340 KMT to 3.46 MMT, and the nation to continue replenishing the rapeseed shortage in the EU internal market will be Romania.

Although Romania is just the fifth largest rapeseed producer in the EU, it plays an important role in this commodity’s exports both to the EU internal market and beyond its borders. Along with Poland, Romania is pushing for the second position among the top EU exporters, next to France.

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2.    Ukraine leaves Asian wheat markets

Author – Olena Hesova

According to February estimates of Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) wheat production is estimated to have exceeded the record forecast in the December report.  Farmers have gathered 11 MMT more wheat (35.1 MMT, or +45% y/y) than in 2015/16 and have essential export surplus. Given the fact that key wheat export markets of Australia lay in the domain of Asia, Black sea countries, especially Ukraine, as well as USA and  Argentina are currently focused export success of Australian traders.

Thus, realizing the looming record wheat supplies Australian traders began to lower export price in the first half of 2016/17 and steep decrease followed in November for the closest deliveries.  Adding to beneficial freight rates for Australian wheat in the Asian destinations, lower FOB price made it quite competitive to the other origins.

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3.    Ukraine managed to open new markets in view of shrinking deliveries to the EU

Author – Marina Sych 

Although a few months are still left until the end of the current season, Ukraine has already realized three-fourths of its grain export potential of MY 2016/17.

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4.    Ukraine. A year of life in the free trade area with the EU: trading pattern

Author – Georgiy Golubev  

In the previous article we briefly described the development of trading relationship between Ukraine and the EU through the lens of switching main trade flows from the CIS to the EU and taking into account the free trade area effective in 2016. Now we would like to dwell on the commodity composition of this trade. 

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5.    Ukraine to press Russia in the Turkish vegoil market

Author – Svetlana Kupreeva   

Sunoil trade persists to be a topical issue for the Black Sea countries in MY 2016/17, when they face a task to process and sell a bumper sunseed crop. UkrAgroConsult already wrote before that end markets had been redistributed over the last three seasons between the key competitors, i.e. Ukraine and Russia. The current marketing year continues showing previously set trends. 

Ukraine remains the undoubted leader among sunoil suppliers to India, which shows greater interest in the Ukrainian product in MY 2016/17 than a year ago. Its purchases in the first six months of the current season were up almost 42% year-on-year at over 960 KMT.

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Readers choice: TOP-10 articles of 2016 by UkrAgroConsult