Readers Choice: TOP - 5 Articles of the Month

02.03.2017

UkrAgroConsult is bringing to your notice the TOP-5 of opinion pieces of January 2017. Please read more detailed exclusive material by UkrAgroConsult in the “Expert Opinion” section. Their January rating was as follows:

1. India became the top importer of Ukrainian wheat

2. EU becoming more dependent on Canada and Australia

 

3. Ukraine: Sunoil production, exports and inventories at high levels

4. China cutting soybean oil purchases from the Black Sea region

5. Grain market: another season of record stocks and low priceswho is to blame?

 

More information on agrimarkets of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market reports "Black Sea Grain & Oil" and "Black Sea Vegoils & CIS" by UkrAgroConsult.

1. India became the top importer of Ukrainian wheat

Author – Marina Sych

The current season 2016/17 started in Ukraine with a record fast pace of grain exports, including wheat deliveries. At the same time, we estimate that Ukrainian wheat export availabilities will shrink by 7-8% in 2016/17 from the previous season in view of some crop decrease.

According to official statistics, wheat exports from Ukraine increased 7.7% to 9.62 MMT in the first five months of the current season against 8.93 MMT in July-November 2015/16.

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2. EU becoming more dependent on Canada and Australia

Author – Yulia Garkavenko

According to USDA, global rapeseed output decreased 3.4% to 67.7 MMT in season 2016/17, mostly due to further contraction of harvested acreage – it shrank both in key exporters (Canada, Australia and Ukraine) and key importers (EU and China).

The downward trend in world production has been persisting for a third consecutive season. This will affect rapeseed inventories, which will close the season of 2016/17 at 5.5 MMT, i.e. at the lowest level since 2012/13 (4.8 MMT). Rapeseed stocks in the EU will show a particularly substantial drop. USDA forecasts them to hit a decade low at 914 KMT.

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3. Ukraine: Sunoil production, exports and inventories at high levels

Author – Yulia Garkavenko

Ukraine’s crushers have substantially boosted sunoil output this season (2016/17). Sunoil production has been showing a record fast pace for a third consecutive month now, hitting new highs every month.

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4. China cutting soybean oil purchases from the Black Sea region

Author – Svetlana Kupreeva

According to forecasts for MY 2016/17, China – the world’s top soybean oil consumer – will increase domestic use of this product. Apart from growth of own production, imports are also expected to rise. Now the Black Sea region does not play any key role in providing this country with soybeans. The first months of the current marketing year 2016/17 shows that China’s interest in Black Sea soybean oil has declined in favor of major South American and US suppliers.

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5. Grain market: another season of record stocks and low priceswho is to blame?

Author – Olena Hesova

Grain oversupply has been observed in the global market over the last four seasons, leading to growth of grain carryovers. Respective annual price drops with consequent reduction of market participants’ profits as a natural response of the market. At the same time, despite the long term period of low prices and attempts of some market players to decrease plantings of the least profitable crops, season 2016/17 was also marked with their bumper production. What or who prevents restoration of the world market balance?

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Readers choice: TOP-5 articles of the month by UkrAgroConsult