Record grain exports from Russia: to be or not to be?


Last week’s most important news included another adjustment in the Russian Ag Ministry’s forecast for 2016/17 grain exports from the country, UkrAgroConsult notes.

One of the most optimistic grain export forecasts available in the market, including the Ag Ministry’s prediction, was voiced at 40 MMT back in the beginning of the current season. However, under pressure from a slow pace of Russian grain exports in Q1 2016/17, the Agriculture Ministry has cut its grain export estimate for November 2016 at once by 5 MMT to 35 MMT. Now the ministry has somewhat adjusted its forecast, having raised its upper limit to 37 MMT (the Ag Ministry’s forecast for Russian grain exports currently equals 35‑37 MMT).

UkrAgroConsult’s estimate has also been among the most optimistic ones, but the results of the first half of the season suggest that this prediction is increasingly unlikely to come true.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain&Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.



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